I'm probably shutting this down. All of his Ax hands are now two pair and never folding. He probably doesn't fold Tx unless you bomb it, and you block a few of the 7x hands he could have and fold the river with. He also folds 55, 66 but I think you get looked up a large % of the time.

you have to fire on this ace, sorry if he calls you down and wins

IMO, there is very little chance that the standard sticky fish sees $150 as a value bet from Hero... Betting that much opens you up to the suspicious fish that saw on TV once that he's supposed to make super-sick calls.

Really... $75 get's the job done. $100 at most.

I'm betting $150 with aces-up here, but don't really see the need to make it that big as a bluff.

Also, I'm not real happy with that card. I definitely barrel sometimes here, but its not a great card if Villain isn't a drooler.

Grunch
Well you improved but you're still on a draw. Since this guy is a calling station I'd wouldnt semi-bluff the turn here, but everyone has there limits. Also, you can easily get blown off your hand if he C/Rs large. Flat and call a reasonable bet depending on implied odds.

I think betting the flop against this type of player is a mistake. Why waste money that he will call. You are open ended but so what? your 32% to hit on flop. That means 68% of the time your wasting your flop bet. Check flop . check turn or check call turn. Its all going in anyway if you hit your wheel right? Then if you miss and must attempt a bluff you can put less in on river ( you controlled the pot size, weak hand should be a little pot) and be just as effective. But against this guy as you described him I would check it down and fold to any raise . You have 9 high.

I don't think so. The guy is a recreational player, he isn't a thinking player. You gain more fold equity from these type of players not lose it.

I agree with betting turn, given your equity, along with the possibility of betting an A or K river; in other words your effective equity including these bluff cards is over 40%. Also, keep in mind that in the previous hand when Villain called you on the river he had the 2nd nuts, so it's wrong to assume he's calling MOST river bets with a just a pair.

Anyway, as the hand stands on the river, you HAVE to bet this Ace. I'd be very surprised if Villain calls with anything less than two-pair; and, based on his continuation range, there aren't many two-pair combos. I'd be pausing for a bit and then throwing in a red, a green and a black (at the same time of course).

A lot of ppl in this thread are really weak tight. Check flop? Check turn? Check river? Grow a pair and put some chips out there ffs. If he looks you up with Tx say "NH sir" and just value bet him to death in every hand you play with him from here on out.

I think this is assuming v is a complete station with no fold equity in which case there really isn't much reason to build a pot.

I'm still a bit unsure about what the correct play is against a vil like this. I think I like playing this aggressively because of the possibility that we have overs to his 2nd pair and an oesd. The ace is a great card to fire on the river against a level 1 I think because he's not thinking about your range, he's thinking, "Wow, an ace, fccking river."

But he's not a station though. A station is someone who calls down to the river with middle pair or whatever. All we know is that he peeled the turn in a hand against hero with middle pair + gutshot on a very wet board. Hell, I'd probably make the same play planning on bluffing hearts if I thought hero had a tight opening range.

Well OP does mention that he's a loose, passive, level-1 thinker, I think that hand was just an example of him hanging on to second pair. I agree with you and I think I would fire all three streets too, but I'm curious what you would do against an actual station?

If we knew he won't fold Tx and might or might not fold 7x? Probably just c/c turn and c/f river.

Fair enough, I'm just trying to wrap my head around trying to 3-barrel a fish. I've always heard not to try to bluff fish. In this case if v has TP, I think there's a good chance v doesn't fold to a lot of river bets and we're building a pot where (if v has TP) we're not a favorite and probably don't have a lot of fold equity.

Even if we knew V doesn't fold Tx here I think the bet is still profitable because he'll fold 7x and smaller pairs and missed open enders. That should be enough combos to make the bet profitable.

just because he is recreational player doesnt mean he is a drooling idiot. he still has a thought process, it just doesnt make any sense most of the time.

river is an easy bet. i like 120.

my sizing would have gone 25/45/95 tho with this particular hand.

theres a lot of value hands you'd triple this board run out vs a fish. sure he probably still calls Tx a decent% of the time, but you likely get him to fold 7x, 3, 88, J9, J8, QJ, KQ, KJ, 45, 46.

the pure bluffs are pretty few, mostly overs that turned backdoor spades and J9s/65s/68s/89s.

the real question(s) are, how thin are you going for value in this spot? i think i likely value JT+ here against a complete station (but i would use subtle changes in my sizing to get there cheaper, for JT i'd go 20/45/75) and how often are you double barreling AJ-AK/QJ+ on this board?

i would likely pot control T9/T8 oop vs a passive player and try to take one street off. 99/88/7x falls under the same hand strength

its prob a leak to fire twice with QJ/KJ/KQ without having spades backup as villian is sticky. but is prob standard cbet heads up assuming you have a backdoor flushdraw, thus for balance purposes i'd bet any unimproved non A-hi overs with bdfd and check the offsuit combinations.

vs this guy with prior hand example....
flop I bet about 25. Dry rag board vs passive rec with wide range, no need to bet 2/3. half pot is plenty.... he folds the same hands for less money
turn I bet half pot... about 45 or w/e. if we barrel we maintain pot control whilst oop and lay the price for ourselves.... a fine play vs a passive villain when oop OTT and gaining additional equity with a combo draw...... alternatively we check, we risk facing a larger bet to call.....and if villain checks behind, it's harder to steal it on brick rivs with a weak line ... especially if villain checks turn to call most rivs anyway.

I'd bet/fold A7+ for three streets of value against this particular guy.

While this might be true, the better question is: What hands are you opening from the CO preflop with, and then value betting three streets with, given this board and this villain?

Are you opening A7? Not saying you shouldn't, but just pointing out that Hero has opened preflop.

I think my 3 street value range is [any PP, any T, 43s, AX]... pretty wide, but I'm opening the CO pretty wide.

I probably slow down on the turn with [7x, 3x, A-broadway, K-broadway, AXs]... and try to get to showdown cheap.

And the rest, I probably barrel.

am i missing something here?!? he just called down three barrels with 4th pair and 4 to a str8 out there
villain is a complete super donk droooooler!!
y are we considering bluffing this guy, doesnt make sense to me.
imho keep the initiative OTT, build the pot.
just give up wen u brick rivers, and like over bet avlue own him when u get there

There is no way I am not betting this river and I honestly don't care if he calls close to 100%.

In all seriousness this all depends on how much of a station he truly is. He should be pretty squarely weighted to Tx here most of the time.

Note if there had been a fd otf this is a terrible card to bluff. I see that mistake made often.

Also don't like the way QQ hand was played, but I digress

could you explain your logic behind bluffing rivers that are getting called at close to 100% frequency?

He's called the flop and the turn, traits of a passive player chasing down hands. While some of us think he's not quite the fish, he still made a -EV with his pair/straight draw in the QQ hand on the turn.

Let's say villain's range is A2ss-AQss. Let's say he is capable of having T8-KT here as far as the Tx hands go and some of these have the flush draw working for V as well. I'm not sure if V would play T7 or a set this passively on the turn, so I think the chances of those holdings are now decreased. Considering the passive play, he's also more likely than most players to have some kind of other flush draw here as well (KTss, KJss, QTss, QJss, J9ss, etc.).

The main hands we are scared of V having are down to AT and A7 and I definitely believe V may be willing to let his weak Tx hands go. His 7x hands are definitely folding. If you bet the turn, we should continue and fire $125 at this river. He doesn't even need to fold half the time to make this profitable.

If we care about the metagame and it turns out that V is willing to make hero calls, we increase our chances of getting more value later in the session.

nvrmnd he had the str8 lol i need sleep -______-

I was sort of being facetious because all I did was change my initial post from "turn" to "river".

Really it's just a decent card to bet. There are times when using an Ace as a scare card is bad, but this situation is pretty decent.

But in all seriousness, I wouldn't mind too much if I somehow afterwards magically found out he calls my river bet 100% of the time with Tx or better.

This is because my bet/bet/bet range in this flop would be extremely nutted. In fact this is one of the few air hands that I could possibly have by the river taking this line on this runout.

So he would be making a mistake calling here vs. my b/b/b range.

This idea is called G-Bucks and was created by Phil Galfond.

It is not as important live as online, because live we are able to take exploitable lines to the max. But it's still a neat concept and something to keep you disciplined when bluffing/value betting

The cool thing about bluffing and getting looked up by a station is that he'll never fold a pair to you for the rest of his poker career. So best case scenario, he folds and we win the pot. Worst case scenario, he calls with Tx and you value town him to death from here on out.