Okay so I’m not sure if this is a leak but let’s take an example..

5-handed 2/5 $500 eff, supertight Hero opens $15 OTB with K2ss, BB (MAWG with headphones and watching a movie on tab) calls.

Flop ($30): 652hhc
He checks, if I check here my hand is transparent as overcards so I cbet $20, he calls

Turn ($70): 6d
He checks, I could check here but I might be ahead of SDs/FDs and don’t want to face a river decision, so I bet $40 super thin with a plan to check behind river, he calls

River ($150): 4h
He bets $60, I snap fold

Looks like he got there on the river so I was ahead all the way probably. Is my line okay?

I don't like your reasoning in this hand.

You don't like to face a river decision so you bet 40 into 70 on the turn. On the river you fold to a 60$ bet. So you invested 105$ into this pot and you didn't even get to see a showdown.

What if instead you check-back this turn - the pot would still be 70$, the villain would bet 40$ (or probably less seeing he put in less than 1/2 pot-size bet on the river) and you could have called with your pair and see showdown for the same or less than you invested before.

I'm not suggesting that calling the river with a pair of deuces is a good decision here, just trying to show you what I think is wrong with your thinking in this hand.

You’re correct. By that logic though, shouldn’t I check back flop as well?

I feel like I have a leak that I don’t want to be the one “calling” bets, but rather betting out.

Btw, not sure if it matters but I invested $75 in the hand, not $105.

Are you making lots of snap folds? Vs thinking villain who would have called you with A high here on river that $60 bet on super scary card is good bet.

I like both flop and turn and might actually look him up river. You are super tight so how was this displayed prior. If you had a big pair would you fold now?

If he had a strong hand why wouldn’t he raise earlier and now bet this.

I think you have to call sometimes here so definitely not a snap. Not often but sometimes. If you want to call with 77+ only and fold all A highs then ok

Pair of 2 obviously light so he could be turning a 5 into a bluff here and be good. I’m saying if I was him vs a nit I would be betting those scary board.


Now going back to being afraid of being bluffed but protecting hand. Would go with above range. Check back turn with draws, A high, low pair, and occasionally big pair to balance. Best way to prevent being bluffed too much is checking back strong hands.

Look at the board, everything got there OTR. I don’t even beat a bluff. And he never floats me twice with A hi, I don’t think so.

I probably didn’t “snap” fold, maybe a sigh and after like 3 seconds. Also, I doubt he was the type to bluff river.

Btw, you like my line but then suggest checking back turn with low pairs?

If you doubt he is the type to bluff river then it's even more reason to check back the turn.

If you ask me how I would play this hand, I would probably check back flop, call one bet on the turn and fold river.

You can't be afraid to call bets, you shouldn't bloat the pot with marginal hands, check-back and decide later whether to bluff catch.

The big problem are the “whys” and “becauses”.

Your play isn’t horrible. I would play different, but I do think your line is ok.

The problem, as I said, is your thinking process.

Flop:
“I bet because of I check my hand will be transparent as overcards”.

(1) you don’t have overcards. You have a bottom pair with a good kicker.
(2) this board impacts much more the BB flat range than yours, so you can be checking here with alot of hands with no problem. That includes yours overcards.
(3) your hand have thin value vs his range and needs protection. That’s why you should be betting here.

Turn:
“Don’t want to face river decision”.

(1) if you dont want to get to river, than you are making your BP a bluff. And it could be a good choice for sure.
But as you said that you are ahead of SD/FD and is betting because of that it just don’t make sense to bluff. You habe showdown value and with this turn, low fold equity.
(2) You could perfectly check here and fold River as we are with our bottom range. On this kinda of board it wont be a problem.
(3) If you do want to bet to increase the chances of getting to SD, than I like a small bet most. 25$ seens fine to me. That is called a blocking bet.
$40 isnt a blocking. It is either a bluff or value. As you don’t have value betting this big and don’t want to have a bluff, you actually have a VALUFF.

Edit1: flop I like 1/2 pot bet.

There is a line in NLHT&P which I feel like should apply to your turn decision, but even more importantly to your flop decision. It's something like:

"The structure of no limit usually forces you to show weakness when you are weak."

Since you shouldn't be planning to bluff 3 barrels here, you're going to have to slow down at some point. I would choose the flop.

I think the leak is that you don't want to be bluffed. Just let yourself be bluffed sometimes! If people think they can sometimes bluff you, then they'll also sometimes dump money to you when you aren't folding. This is especially true at 2/5, in my experience.

+1 to that.

Yes i took your post in two parts. One for this hand which I like your line. Then made a suggestion of how to approach it based on your thread title.

My post isn’t an absolute but given how you described your play this line probably works well into how you actually play made hands making this line better balancing wise.

Also if he isn’t the type to bluff river what does he bluff that you need to bet thin. This is an amazing river to bet cause a super nit, only has a few combos that hits this. He basically has a huge range advantage vs you.

I don’t know if he would bluff a blank OTR if I check back turn, but if river is like a Qs and he bets, idk what to do. He would be forced to bluff some SDs and FDs.

Depending on the V, river actually looks like a pretty great spot to raise to $210-220 imo. But I would personally check back the flop or the turn, and not put myself in this spot.

What? If how I see it, it really looks like he called twice with a FD/SD and got there OTR. Why do we want to bluffraise without knowing if he’s capable of laying them down?

In this era of poker where people are floating the flop cbet with two napkins, you pretty much need to bet when you have any value. To avoid getting bluffed off your hand on the turn, you need to check a fair percentage of your value hands. You'll be stunned how many people will try to get you to fold on the river or call because you couldn't possibly have TP and checked the turn.

That’s why I specifically said “depending on the V”.
It looks exactly like V got there with a made, but vulnerable hand to me.
Think of how many hand combos can actually handle the pressure of a significant river raise here. I can almost count them on one hand.
If V has half a brain, they would lay down all rivered str8’s and most lower flushes, calling with anything less than a king high flush here would be very difficult.

You bet turn to not face a river decision. Only to face a river decision.

Why is a flop check transparent as bare overcards? You don't have hands like 44, 64s, etc in your check range? You should have a few checks like this if you're concerned that you'll be exploited on later streets.

Also he probably did get there. Fold river is probably good. But really, this is a middle aged dude who seems more interested in his movie than he is to gamble, so you should be able to use this info if he tries to bomb on this board (IOW he isn't going to hit this board too often). Wouldn't be shocked if he has 33/44 exactly TBH.

Flop bet is good. Turn sizing is extremely dull and must lose money compared to checking or potting.

I felt so too. But can we come up with a plausible reason to PSB turn with a hand that has SDV? Is it a value or bluff?

I'm fine with this line. Sure, you're putting more into the pot with a weak hand, but you can gain some fold equity by getting hands like 45 to fold.

You bet flop and you got called, so he no longer has the air portion that you hoped to fold out. That's fine. Fortunately, you are still dealing with a wide range from the BB on a very drawy board with quite a lot of hands yourself. Let's attempt to dig deeper into your question. I'll try.

The real motivation for having a turn betting range here (or any betting range) is to either have V fold his equity now or make the pot bigger in case you win. It is not so much about value and bluff before the river anymore, but rather a combination of the factors above that makes the most money.

This isn't gospel, but here is the idea broken down that may help understand why you might choose a larger sizing (aka why you want to polarize you turn betting range):

When you choose to bet K2ss on 6326hh, you do so because you may be ahead of Vs calling range (great news!, we just value bet). However, once V calls turn, he will still win some amount of the new pot on the river by improving to a better hand/even bluffing you off of yours. Because of this, you actually win more money on avg when you bet turn and V folds (great news! we just bluffed.) So, what in the world do you call a bet that is ahead of a calling range but makes more money when you get a fold??

Now, back to bet sizing. You don't have to bet K2s here, but as you said, you don't want to check turn and get bluffed off the best hand because it's too weak to call, so, you are toying with the idea that betting turn can help you realize better with this part of your range. Without getting too complex, which I may have already done, you are right in thinking that betting hands that are weak and seem to want to check can sometimes increase equity realization/EV more than checking IP can. So what you do is polarize your betting range. To be clear that means create a polar-mixed range here with nuttier hands and weak hands that have some SDV but not enough to call a bet. That range wants to bet big for the reason in the first paragraph. That range might look like AA, 6x, other nutty hands and K2ss A3dd on the bottom. So, when you bet, say $80, you are simultaneously accomplishing what your range wants: making more in case he calls and you win the pot on the river/folding his equity and winning the pot now. When you bet $40, you make less when he calls and you win the pot on the river and less often win the pot now because he less often folds his equity.

Nice post Amana, per usual.

I would not have thought this through nearly as deeply TBH but I’m OK with a flop bet unless villain is super sticky, reason being that while we have a made hand, it’s too weak to go calling down with so I’m OK betting and folding out villains air. Then I give up OTT because he apparently doesn’t have air.

Also, I probably fold pre. This hand is an easy BTN raise online because we go 3bb and expect a bunch of folds. Live it’s 5bb and we get more calls. The combination of these factors means I tighten up quite a lot and drop off my weaker hands - I think the weakest part of our range makes money from folds rather than postflop.

I haven’t thought too much about live open BTN ranges because the games I play seldom fold to BTN. But I’d probably nit it to something like pairs, broadways, suited aces, A8o+, any two suited 9+, suited connectors 65+ assuming I think I’m getting called a lot.