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/ - bet sizing on the river / - bet sizing on the river

03-20-2014 , 10:05 AM
Hero - early 30's who is playing his 1st orbit of the table ($1000, everyone covers)
V1 - in his 20's. good professional player
V2 - drunk Asian in his 20's
V3 - 40's white guy

Hero opens in HJ with KJo to $20, Villian 1 calls in Co, Villian 2 calls on button, Villian 3 calls big blind

Flop AT4hh. v3 checks, hero bets $40 not realising v2 called preflop. Everyone calls.
Turn Q, V3 checks, hero bets $180, V1 and Villian 3 call

River 6, V3 checks, hero?

Hero has a potsize bet back. Do I just ship it or bet say $400-$500.

Last edited by Kyle21; 03-20-2014 at 10:14 AM.
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03-20-2014 , 10:30 AM
turn and river are non 's?
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03-20-2014 , 10:47 AM
Assuming no flushing on turn and river, I'd bet $375. Appears BB line is mainly draw or combo. Pro less likely to call a shove, more likely to call @ 3-1.

If you haven't already, request seat change on the pro. Nh.
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03-20-2014 , 10:52 AM
If anyone had a hand that could call a shove you would probably have heard about it on the flop or turn. Tough sell from $20-$40-$180-$760 on that board IMO. Gotta put them on a range and try to get max value from them.
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03-20-2014 , 11:09 AM
I honestly think shoving is probably best here. It looks bluffy and you might convince one of the villains that you bet the flop with a flush draw, picked up a gutter or a pair on the turn and were barreling, and now you bricked on the river and decided to empty the clip.
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03-20-2014 , 11:12 AM
$300 sounds about right
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03-20-2014 , 11:22 AM
Do your best job of appearing to have missed a flush draw and then look at dealer and say you are allin. Routine and worse villains are not to keen on folding two pair+ on missed draw boards. Target the top of their ranges for optimal valuebet there.

Milking players for small bets when their calling ranges are inelastic is sub-optimal. You will fold out players a slight bit more often, but will win more money overall as long as you figure they can have 2 pair etc. often in their range and here Ido for sure.
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03-20-2014 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
Assuming no flushing on turn and river, I'd bet $375. Appears BB line is mainly draw or combo. Pro less likely to call a shove, more likely to call @ 3-1.

If you haven't already, request seat change on the pro. Nh.
Yeah the turn and river weren't hearts. I did change seats to the pros left when one became available.

i put the bb on a fd/combo draw so I figured he was folding river. I couldn't see either of them showing up with a big hand after the turn is super wet and I would have heard from sets, two pair.

I ended up shoving trying to make it look like I bricked a draw and was trying to get Villian to fold an ace.
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03-20-2014 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Do your best job of appearing to have missed a flush draw and then look at dealer and say you are allin. Routine and worse villains are not to keen on folding two pair+ on missed draw boards. Target the top of their ranges for optimal valuebet there.

Milking players for small bets when their calling ranges are inelastic is sub-optimal. You will fold out players a slight bit more often, but will win more money overall as long as you figure they can have 2 pair etc. often in their range and here Ido for sure.
The pro tanked and folded AT. He told me he flatted the flop because he expected drunk Villian to raise which he was doing alot.

I think you are right though most Villians wouldn't muck Two pair here. I was just unlucky to have a Villian that was good enough to do so.
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03-20-2014 , 12:13 PM
Shove in case V3 has a big ace or 2pair.
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03-20-2014 , 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle21
The pro tanked and folded AT. He told me he flatted the flop because he expected drunk Villian to raise which he was doing alot.

I think you are right though most Villians wouldn't muck Two pair here. I was just unlucky to have a Villian that was good enough to do so.



Yep, and also if you valuebet a stiff bet, that particular villain should have smelled that as well and folded. he would prolly call some half pot bet yes, but that is not what we set out to do.

Also, you should have plenty of big river bets in your playbook so they cannot place you on nuts 100% when you do in fact bet such as this. (Vs this villain anyhow, as all the others are watching the game on TV and not paying attention).

Good job on your thought process on the hand. Always take the chance of busting the guy if there is the slightest chance he calls off. Milking is only a good backup plan when you "know" he wont call.
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03-20-2014 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Yep, and also if you valuebet a stiff bet, that particular villain should have smelled that as well and folded. he would prolly call some half pot bet yes, but that is not what we set out to do.

Also, you should have plenty of big river bets in your playbook so they cannot place you on nuts 100% when you do in fact bet such as this. (Vs this villain anyhow, as all the others are watching the game on TV and not paying attention).

Good job on your thought process on the hand. Always take the chance of busting the guy if there is the slightest chance he calls off. Milking is only a good backup plan when you "know" he wont call.
Thanks of the compliment Bill. Against a weak player I would be very unbalanced on this river, hardly any bluffs but against the pro as I had 1 pot size bet left I would have 1 bluff for every 2 value bets so his call is at best zero ev.
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03-20-2014 , 05:00 PM
stuff it in
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03-20-2014 , 09:51 PM
The most likely Villain to have a good hand is V1 (the pro) because he called with multiple players behind him on flop/turn.

Since he is a pro, it is overly optimistic to shove all-in and expect him to call you a second best hand like 2pair. Most pros know that a pot-sized river shove into 2 other players is almost always a nutted hand and almost never a bluff.

Bet $465-$555.

If V1 was a recreational player instead of a pro, I would have bet $575-$660.
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03-20-2014 , 10:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Yep, and also if you valuebet a stiff bet, that particular villain should have smelled that as well and folded. he would prolly call some half pot bet yes, but that is not what we set out to do.

Also, you should have plenty of big river bets in your playbook so they cannot place you on nuts 100% when you do in fact bet such as this. (Vs this villain anyhow, as all the others are watching the game on TV and not paying attention).

Good job on your thought process on the hand. Always take the chance of busting the guy if there is the slightest chance he calls off. Milking is only a good backup plan when you "know" he wont call.
Totally disagree with this.

V1 (the pro) knows that he is always facing Aces Up or a set when you shove river for 150bbs for a pot-sized triple barrel shove into TWO other players. He won't call the river shove with anything less than AQ or maybe bottom set.

ANL, your advice of just shoving river with the nuts in the blind hopes that you get called by a second best hand for full stacks is really shallow advice that does not take into consideration the relative position of players (V1 is MUCH more likely to have a strong 2nd best hand than the other Villain) and also does not take into consideration that V1 (the pro) is likely a decent/good hand-reader who is capable of making standard laydowns.
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03-20-2014 , 10:45 PM
Grunch

Flop is a check (/fold without good pot odds if bet into) every day of the week. With two broadway cards that hit EVERYBODY'S range here, why go building a pot with just a king-high gutshot? You'll never fold everybody out a crowd here, especially to an obviously weak c-bet.

Which brings another point: half-pot c-bets achieve little. Especially in this spot, where you'll need a nuttish hand to win.

As played, it'd be great to get stacks in here, but much more profitable to just make a bet at the pot. I say V calls off a 3/4psb here WAY more often than he calls a shove.
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03-20-2014 , 10:46 PM
HOLLYWOOD, shove
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03-20-2014 , 11:01 PM
Shove always.
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03-20-2014 , 11:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai
The most likely Villain to have a good hand is V1 (the pro) because he called with multiple players behind him on flop/turn.

Since he is a pro, it is overly optimistic to shove all-in and expect him to call you a second best hand like 2pair. Most pros know that a pot-sized river shove into 2 other players is almost always a nutted hand and almost never a bluff.

Bet $465-$555.

If V1 was a recreational player instead of a pro, I would have bet $575-$660.
Yeah you're right, V1 is more likely to have the second best hand.

Although, if a shove looks super strong and gets V1 to fold most of his range on the river, can't we have a profitable bluff shove in this spot? What hands would we expect V1 and V3 to have on the river that fold to a shove? What hands would call a shove?
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03-20-2014 , 11:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bulls_horn
Grunch

Flop is a check (/fold without good pot odds if bet into) every day of the week. With two broadway cards that hit EVERYBODY'S range here, why go building a pot with just a king-high gutshot? You'll never fold everybody out a crowd here, especially to an obviously weak c-bet.

Which brings another point: half-pot c-bets achieve little. Especially in this spot, where you'll need a nuttish hand to win.

As played, it'd be great to get stacks in here, but much more profitable to just make a bet at the pot. I say V calls off a 3/4psb here WAY more often than he calls a shove.
I agree with everything here but like I Said I cbet the flop not realising the drunk Villian called. I think 3 way this is fine to cbet. As for sizing again I didn't realise pot was this big.

As far as river shove goes. I am not just doing this with the nuts. I would also barrel off here enough of the time so he can't just lay down a nuttish range.

I actually though he was more likely to have AQ here than AT due to flop play. I think he was worried so much about the drink Villian he gave BB good pots odds and let me get there Ott.

Obviously if I knew he had AT then a smaller bet would probably be better. I think he woułdve folded to a $500 bet though. I reckon I would have to bet like $350 to get looked up but if I do this I wouldn't be able to triple as many flush draws and be balanced. Against 95% of Villians I wouldn't care but for this Villian I want to stay reasonable balanced.
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03-20-2014 , 11:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel9861
Yeah you're right, V1 is more likely to have the second best hand.

Although, if a shove looks super strong and gets V1 to fold most of his range on the river, can't we have a profitable bluff shove in this spot? What hands would we expect V1 and V3 to have on the river that fold to a shove? What hands would call a shove?
I think AQ+ call a shove and we would get him off worse two pairs and AK. AA AK and QQ I think 3 bet preflop.

His range is pretty narrow here on the river I think. All the draws missed so if I bet say $350 and he has AT I win that but there are more combos of AQ and I think it's more likely that's why I shoved, I also wasn't sure he would fold AT. People overplay AK all the time at $2/$5.
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03-20-2014 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle21
I agree with everything here but like I Said I cbet the flop not realising the drunk Villian called. I think 3 way this is fine to cbet. As for sizing again I didn't realise pot was this big.

As far as river shove goes. I am not just doing this with the nuts. I would also barrel off here enough of the time so he can't just lay down a nuttish range.

I actually though he was more likely to have AQ here than AT due to flop play. I think he was worried so much about the drink Villian he gave BB good pots odds and let me get there Ott.

Obviously if I knew he had AT then a smaller bet would probably be better. I think he woułdve folded to a $500 bet though. I reckon I would have to bet like $350 to get looked up but if I do this I wouldn't be able to triple as many flush draws and be balanced. Against 95% of Villians I wouldn't care but for this Villian I want to stay reasonable balanced.

You should check this back even 3 ways without the drunk villain. Not a good spot to cbet with the nut gutshot. IMHO, you're not as balanced here as you think you are. How many FDs are you actually triple barrelling vs THREE opponents? You're going to easily blow V1 off of a second best hand by jamming here.
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03-23-2014 , 02:35 PM
Checking this flop would be bad in my opinion. You are pretty much telling the villains you missed and only cbet if you hit the board. I think against most villains this is shove for a PSB on the end as many villains will pay you off with two pair thinking you missed a flush, because that is what they can beat.

I think ANL and ASTAI make good points, but they are coming from different perspectives.

Not sure where the op plays, but I am guessing he/she will be playing more rec players than pros. It just so happened the pro was good enough to lay down AT.
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