Hero (700): Second orbit at the table. Played one big hand calling off aggro kid with third pair, not sure how this affects my image.

Villain (450): No reads to speak of. Guy is 40+

Preflop
Villain opens to 25 in MP
Hero raises to 60 in MP with JJ
Folds to villain, villain calls

Flop
4d 7d Js
Villain checks
Hero checks

Turn
2c
Villain bets 75
Hero calls

River
3s
Villain checks
Hero bets 145

Thoughts on all streets?

Can we get a raise in on the turn? His stack seemed too awkward to raise turn without jamming while a jam seems too big.

I probally just take the notmal bet/bet/bet line

I usually have an aggro image established and will take b/b/b line every time. This early though i thought i needed to slow down to extract two streets out of all his one pair hands instead of one.

if you have specific history with villain and are generally a passive player then why not, but you have know that this is a hand you want to play for stacks. u just played it like potcontrolling 99 until the river.

Me, I would have bet the flop.

Reasons for betting the flop:
1. I c-bet a lot and train the table to expect it.
2. Most fish will call any bet, of any size on the flop...
3. ... especially with that diamond draw out there. Huge opportunity for value.
4. And by the same token, this isn't a good place to give away a free card.

In this case, we aren't sure why the villain bet into that blank on the turn. Is he bluffing into perceived weakness? Or is he starting to really like his TT? Or is he tired of slowplaying his 77? I think, but cannot prove, that one of the problems with playing sneaky/trappy is that you increase the complexity of decision making.

My plan would have been psb on the flop, little more than half pot bet on the turn, and bet the maximum amount I think that turkey will call on the river. With this line, the pot on the river is ~280 and villain has about ~170 left and so there's a chance he will feel pot-committed and will push it all in somewhere along the line.

You might say, "well that will scare him off and you don't make as much money." Maybe so. However in the long run, I think the real money to be made off a hand like this is from fish who will call any bet of any size if they are on a flush draw, and less frequently from people who have a lesser made hand.

Please don't actually listen to me, this is discussion not advice.

with an aggro image i dont like it at all. you have to extract here and try to play for stacks with the nuts. you cant just bet your bluffs heavily and balance it by checking back the nuts, thats just not good poker. and you might even get drawn out by some weird gutshot you saw never come and lose your stack.

I agree. What i'm saying is that i did not have an aggro image established yet since it was second orbit

i dont understand the bet sizings

I bet/bet/bet. On that runout you can prolly do that with AJ+.

Just bet/bet/bet.

Fwiw he called river and showed just the case J before mucking

see, you are basically readless and new at this table. until you figuered out some pattern of your opponents its best just to be solid and follow your default playing lines. and your default in this hand should be bet/bet/bet. definitely.

i dont say it is bad to have moves like this in your arsenal, but in this situation i dont like it.

You may have a hand that you want to play for stacks, but if villain's range suggests that he doesn't have a hand he is willing to play for stacks, then perhaps a more modest goal nets more value.

I check some of the time here, but I try to train my table to fold to a delayed c-bet.

Grunch

Um, first of all, this board is not dry. Sure, it doesn't slam villains 3bet calling range, but there are multiple draws present. If you want to maximize value when you have the nuts, start by betting. Ide bet like $75-$90 here OTF.

Once you check OTF, the turn is a total brick, and he leads out, I'm thinking raise here. It seems like you are specifically trying to prevent stacks from getting in the middle. Raising here is the only real sure fire way to ensure that you get all-in be the river without over betting. Plus after checking the flop, your line won't make any sense really, hopefully he will pay you off with 88-TT.

As played river bet is fine I guess, although I mean idk what villain would put you on here, or pay you off with.

bet/bet/bet. If you want to check flop I'd raise turn to set up a river all-in shove.

As played I'd bet a touch higher on the river.

Don't do what you did here. You should be betting every street, 1/2 pot, or possibly slightly smaller. Target the part of his range you can get value from and get max value. You can get 2-3 streets from AJ/KJ and QQ and 1-2 streets from 88-TT. Checking this flop is a classic LLNL leak.

Also, preflop is a bit ambitious against an older unknown opening from MP. I would have just called.

this isn't a dry board. bet

Pretty dry for his 3bet calling range imo

So if you want to learn more from this hand:

1. List the range for calling your 3-bet that you assign him and justify
2. Explain how different parts of that range proceeds vs. different lines. Be explicit in explaining your assumptions and why you think this player will play the way you think he will
3. Come up with a plan flop-to-river that maximizes value based on work in 1 and 2

If you put some time into the above and post your work, others here can help you improve by pointing out with parts of your logic they disagree with. You might also reach valuable conclusions on your own if you do the work that might influence your future plans.

not really, bet flop, have him put you on AK. profit.

The way the hand is played you stack villain 0% of the time. That's a bad plan.

Agree 100%.

The reason why i posted this hand is because i played it differently than the bet/bet/bet line i'd take 95% of the time. I think i was overvaluing the impact of it being early in the session and not having an aggro image established.


His range for calling my small 3bet is probably 88-QQ, KQ+

Without my normal image, I think that it will be difficult to get more than one street of value from a large part of his range. For instance, all of his pp's will call flop and fold turn (not QQ, but sometimes if villain is weak, but i was readless).

If i check flop, i may be able to get turn and river value since it appears that i have a weak hand (like AK) that is now trying to bomb away. For the broadway part of his range i will probably get no value unless i give him a free card to improve.

There's only a very small part of his range (QQ and AJ) that i can get stacks in on going b/b/b.

I agree that you shouldn't get 3 streets of value from most of his range. However a) you might get zero streets if a scare card comes b) you have to let him make a mistake. c) you might get 3 streets from QQ (6 combos), while as the way you played you never get stacks in vs. QQ. While the last point is infrequent, the amount of value you miss is large enough that this alone is probably enough not to deviate from bet x 3.

Just my 2c. I have done what you did here. In the heat of the moment it's so exciting to flop top set that you want to get paid. Unfortunately I think bet x 3 is still the most EV line (except in rare circumstances which aren't present here). Harrington once mentioned this in regards to a different point. Think about over-bet shoving a river for value with nuts vs. betting 1/2-2/3rds pot. We as players get potentially incorrect feedback. The frequency of us getting paid with a 'normal' size bet is higher than a big overbet. So when we make a big overbet and the villain folds, we get negative feedback, even though that might have been the correct, most +EV play. Same here - when you go for bet x 3, a bunch of times you will get flop or turn folds. That's OK. It doesn't mean the plan was bad. It was still the best plan here IMO taking into account all aspects of the situation.

If his range for calling our 3bet is small that's more of a reason to bet come on now.