Hero - $1800 - Pretty card dead at the moment, haven't won a hand in bout an hour or 2

Villain - $300~ - Just bluffed a guy with ace high and got called by 77 on a 98443 board. He bet river like $150 and guy tank called. He is playing a lot of hands, and seems pretty wild.


Hero gets AQ UTG and goes $20
4 callers including villain.

$100
Q94
Hero goes $75
Villain calls
Fold
Fold
Fold

K
Hero checks
Villain jams for $175
Hero???


Now I was thinking this is a call - and villain started talking and seemed to be pretty comfortable. I than started thinking about all the combos of hands that beat me that he would probably play.

KJ KT JT QK sets and I wasn't so sure if it was a call. I mean I don't think a call is bad at all, but is it better than a fold? I don't really beat anything except for QJ and QT and I think a lot of those hands would check back. Maybe not this player though.

Thoughts??

as an occasional aggrotard, half the value in me making bluffs like the A hand you describe even if it doesn't get through is setting up spots like this hand where you think I am more reckless than I really am.

Obv no idea if that is actually true in this spot, just an observation from my own musings as a rec 2/5 aggrotard.

Whichever decision you make here will be wrong a fair bit of the time lol. I fold in this spot, you really only beat a dumb spaz bluff. Villain checks back a worse queen much of the time.

I think the fact it was 4 handed to the flop makes it more of a fold. Villain has something more than air to call with 3 spots behind.

This could so easily be J10, KQ. Many sets is going to slow play this pretty disconnected flop.

I fold. And as a general rule if I have to put villain on almost total air to justify a call I try to make myself fold even if tempted to bluff catch

As played I fold as well, flop was 4 handed and I expect V's to have something in his hand other than air.

What about betting this turn? I mean, it would clearly make your decision easier (leaning towards call of course), but don't you think there is value to be extracted by betting? I'd probably bet this turn and gii.

Flop was 5-handed. I'd open $25 if you can get away with it. $20 UTG seems too low given the result.

We can probably make a tight exploitative fold here but we are borderline committed. I think your flop bet was too large given the dry nature of the board and your preflop open too small. I would have opened $25 and then c-bet like ~1/2 PSB or slightly larger on this exact board.

From the very beginning, your preflop raise was way way too small with so much effective stack behind. Why give odds to fish to outdraw you. Betting only 6% off effective it's inviting horrific disasters. And if you happen to raise like $36 and just win the blinds, don't fret over it; that just means you probably weren't going to win a big pot anyway. People who worry about not winning a big pot with their big Ace are the ones who end up with the "win a small pot on the flop/lose a big one on the river" problem and have difficult decision to make in between. Always remember that. OK?

1) The flop is very static. This is because the top card is close to the top of the pack and the gaps between cards is wide open. It also means that the best hand on the flop will be the best by the river even with an overcard coming down on subsequent streets (in a heads-up play). In this case the King is the only overcard. Do you really put villain on a King or some exact miracle JT for a str8? - Why do that to yourself?

2) When villain bets the pot like he did just moments ago for $175 you need 33% to win to break even. If you call and lose the pot you are out $175 if you win you win double that amount for $350. So, you can win once and lose twice and be even. The question is this: is this villain bluffing in this situation or similar ones more than 33% bluffing, if he does then, you call. Or is this villain having KQ or JT all together less or more than 33% of the time? - If you can predict reasonably humanly possible close to that number based on his actions pre and on the flop, then you know what to do. If over 33%, you fold, if less you call.

Every time you are facing a pot size shove you do the #2 mental exercise from now on and you'll be at the professional level.

Got that? - (make sure you take notes of both #1 and #2 from the above Golden text ... haha...)

Ap i like folding. I think this might be a turn bet, im not sure though

Sent from my LGMS210 using Tapatalk

If we adhere to your guidelines, we'll be nearly always the tightest players at the table. Being tight and fold doesn’t win you money. Folding wins you nothing, after all. You have to have a logic and a play behind every fold, call or raise. If we fold because we see danger on every turn of the card we may as well not put money in front of us at the table. Hell, we may not even come close to a card room.

My logic is that he called a largeish flop bet with 2-3 people left to act behind him, making his range a bit stronger. If i were going to check call turn i would lean toward just shoving turn myself.

Sent from my LGMS210 using Tapatalk

I see his flop calling range as something like KQ/QJ/QTs/JT/ and some sets. maybe AK/AJ but this would be pretty loose 4-5 ways on the flop. Maybe add some T9s/J9s/98s. If we give him all of the above easy easy call as played.

Sent from my LGMS210 using Tapatalk

A ha! ... haha.. ,now I like it. Yes, our raising has much more significance after he called with players behind and now we come over the top of him. I definitely like that.