I recently moved from 1/2 to 2/5 for the first time so I'm still getting my bearings in the game.

Hero ($440): Late 20s, playing very TAG and few hands. Bad image, have c/f a lot of my pots I've opened. Could be perceived as tight/scared but not sure.

V covers me with 800ish: Late 20s, haven't seen him too involved buy have suspected him of making one move so far but didn't get to see. His very first hand at the table he 3bet then 5bet shoved KK from the BTN in a straddled pot.

Hand: V opens for $20 in MP. 2 callers to me in the BB with AQ and I complete.

Flop ($80): JJ2

Everyone checks.

Turn ($80): A

I check, V bets $30. Folds to me and I call.

River ($140): Q

I lead for $65. He quickly sizes out some green chips and makes it $225. Hero?

Thoughts on all streets also appreciated.

I don't think this is ever a bluff. He's not value raising with other Ax hands. A slow played Jx or KT that stabbed the turn makes sense.

Forgot to mention I opened to $25 with QJs from EP about 1 hour before this hand and he 3bet me on the BTN to $85 and I snap folded when it got back to me.

Abit bigger on river, about 85. And fold to a raise. U see Jx here alot.

I'm OK with the call pf, but often I'm 3! AQ here a ton. The 40 from two callers is dead money, raise here to 80 often takes it down now. Your tight passive image helps here. Worst case is probably being out of position versus one opponent. I can understand not wanting to put yourself in that spot.

I'm fine with turn check\call. 30 is lol bet size relative to flop.

On river I like bet/folding better than check call or check fold. When you lead you rarely get raised by non nuttish hands so can safely fold if he goes over the top of your raise. You can also get value from calls of hands you beat (AK,A10, weird KK, etc) that are likely to check behind wanting to be a showdown monkey.

Only thing I really don't like is your river is bet size. Looks very weak. I'd choose a real value bet size of 90-100 to get max value if just called and reduce likelihood that v tries to take it away from you with a weaker hand.



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$100 pre.

How often will people at the 2/5 level raise on the river if they feel a weak river lead out and interpret it as a blocker/cheap showdown bet like this?

Hardly ever. It's rarely a bluff. If he sees you as competent and are folding to a raise, he may a small percentage of the time.

I'm not a huge fan of seeing a flop 4 ways with AQo and the worst position. I'd 3bet it to $100-110

As played, this is really V dependent. If he feels this is a bet/fold by us, he could be trying to force the fold. But you really need to know if V is a descent player for a call. We have a ton of SDV. Our range is capped, we never have a J here and if he's good, he'll know that

So everyone agrees the river is a lead/fold and not a check/call? Except the lead needed to be bigger?

Grunch

3bet pre to $100. Fold to river raise as played.

You can size your river bet a little bigger as well, maybe $80 or so and get a call from Ax

Absolutely. bet fold is almost always best, especially on the river to maximize thin value. Low level live folks love to get to showdown and just don't bluff enough to worry about that. Bet to get thin value, sometimes could be called and value own yourself, but when you bet and are raised you can usually safely fold knowing you are beat.

Problem with check call plan is that too often villains aren't betting for thin value. Most often they just check back hands that have showdown value that you are a head of, which ends up costing you a lot of potential value over time.



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The most interesting part of the hand is the flop. It's hard to imagine that he wouldn't continuation bet AK/AT/KK on this very dry flop. I don't know how often the Villain continuation bets but something is odd right from the flop onward.

He either smashed the flop and checked hoping someone would catch-up or he bluffs with 30 dollar bets.

I disagree with this part. If we are sizing our thin-value bets appropriately, we are never "value owning" ourselves. The thin value bet is designed to extract maximum value from the portion of our opponent's range that we beat while still understanding that V sometimes has the best hand. For instance, if our hand beats 25% of our opponents calling range, and we bet 1/3 of the pot on the river, then we break even long term when V calls us. Even when we are called and lose the pot, we still aren't showing a loss long-term, thus not "value owning" ourselves.

What kind of horrible logic is this?

If you beat 25% of villain's calling range it is a terrible bet that is losing money (unless you are bluffing).

If you're value-betting, you always need to be over 50% against the Villain's calling range to bet in a heads-up pot.

So the pot is 60 dollars. You bet 20 dollars with 25% equity. On average you're getting 25% of the 40 dollars that goes into the pot. The Villain is getting 75%. He makes 10 dollars, you lose 10 dollars.

Fine pre. Also fine if you want to 3bet with AQ. You'd need to bet big, probably $100, to either take it down or get heads up. You're 100% committed if you get a caller and an A or Q hit the flop.

As played, good both flop and turn. I actually hate bet/fold the river. I think you should classify top two as a medium strength hand on a paired board. The Q on the river appears to give you a very strong hand, but it only puts you ahead of AK after the turn. When you bet with AQ, all hands with a J raise and worse hands probably won't call. He also could be making a play with air. The only hand you might get thin-value called with is AK, which definitely makes sense given his preflop/flop actions. However, that's too narrow for me. I think Js and air take similar lines. I check-call and make sure I get a showdown with my medium strength hand.

Agree with 3 betting preflop. I think c/call is fine on the turn. I hate leading the river. You are almost never getting paid off by a worse hand (maybe AK), and are pretty much always getting raised by a slow played jack, which is a large part of his range. He has also put you to a really difficult decision, because did he see your lead as a blocker bet and is pouncing on it (cause you didn't c/raise at any point in the hand, so it's tough for you to have a jack here), or is he just value owning you. I think this is a pretty simple c/call on the river.

pf i'm 3betting to 115. There is a lot of dead money in there, and to be honest I would probably fold rather than call. AQo OOP is not a great multi way hand at all.

the raise on the river is usually a FH (trying to disguise it as a bluff w/his sizing hoping any Jx or AJ is calling).

Hero's call ends the action and hero knows exactly the price to see a flop. Over 4-to-1 with AQo, even OOP, is profitable.

Sidetracking for a second, let's imagine I 3bet to $100 and V calls. Pot is now $240 and I've got $340 left. Let's imagine same flop - do I just bet/fold $150 and give up if he calls?

Results: I snap-mucked to his raise and he turned over 74. What do you guys think about his bluff with all things considered?

but most flops with AQ are going to look like this:

J27
K84
799
6j3:
962, etc. etc... and we are OOP 4 ways with ace high so we will ck/fold most of the time basically.

We would be calling to hit two pair or hope it gets checked around with an ace on the flop so we can bet the turn. It's too fit or foldy imho which is -ev in itself. I would rather raise and try to get it heads up and I won't even mind taking it down pf.

well without seeing him bluff like this we have to go with what this bet means most of the time which is probably a FH:

he could have possibly picked up on your image as being scared money, maybe he sensed weakness but I think it was a good fold tho without any further reads than what you had. Usually when someone raises a paired board like that he beats 2 pair easily.

Yes, there will be a lot of check-folds. We'll hit an A or Q 1/3 of the time on the flop. We're calling to hit TPTK or TPGK, and of course top two would be great. I'm almost always checking with top pair respecting my positional disadvantage. However, the hands that do hit top pair or better will have decent value.

I have no problem 3betting here. Calling is fine too because we know the cost to see the flop. It does require very careful postflop play though.