Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldsBiggestNit
Let's look at this thread from the villain's POV. There's a multiway limped pot. Some dude ahead of us leads pot on the 10 hi flop. He pots the turn when another card lower than the 10 comes. What's his range?
The range where someone pots here two streets is really wide. (our hero's range) It consists of a lot of top pair type hands, a lot of two pair hands, sets, draws, combo draws, pair+backdoor flush draws, straights, etc.
If you are the villain here, you know how wide hero's range is. Are you just going to flat call with a strong hand like two pair or a set? That seems insanely stupid and just so not profitable. You're deep so you have to size a good turn bet to set up your river bet, you want to know where you stand, there are tons of draws in hero's range, you want to get value and price out hero if you are ahead, your hand beats a massive chunk of hero's range. Flatting this board is just so so so bad for so many reasons if you're villain and you have 2p+.
As for the horrible advice given about hero's hand, hero's hand here is at almost the very top of his range in an extremely wide range. So, with the 7th nuts, when we encounter a c/r, we are going to....fold? That makes no sense.
I am looking at it from villain's point of view. That's why the raise is so scary.
The 8 is not "another card lower than a 10." You know this is not a blank.
Villain is escalating the betting to a point where he is telling hero he is willing to play for stacks. He is putting in 1/4 of his stack so he is not making this raise to "see where he stands." Do you want to play for 160bb stacks in a limped pot with two pair when a set or straight is possible? Maybe you do, but a lot of people want to avoid this outcome.
I also believe that as of the 2nd PSB hero does not have "a ton of draws in his range" -- villain has to discount the pair+draw combos from hero's range: hero limped in MP and you have to limit the number of crappy one and two-gapper hands like J8, J9, J7, 97, T8 and unsuited connectors such as T9, 98, 87 for two reasons: 1) they suck and 2) not many of them will be suited. also, 3) a lot of the time, he will check the turn and hope to draw cheaply.
Hero having top pair/no redraw is also possible, but villain has to expect hero to bet/fold AT, KT, call with JT and maybe make a mistake and call with QT. If he's going for value against these hands, he is going to get...folds. But if hero has one of these hands he might use a check to exercise pot control and induce some loose value bets/bluffs.
So now, another thing: villain limps preflop then flat calls a potsized bet (sure, in position) on a T94 rainbow board in a multiway pot. How often is this T8? 98? the 8's are dirty outs and can get him into trouble. And he only has 5 outs with little hope of stacking hero. I also figure he raises the flop with T-9 a good portion of the time, since there are draws available that could bust him. The claim I'm making is you can pretty much limit villain's range to :
likely: {T9, QJ, JT}
less likely: {TT,99, J7s, 98, T8s}
not likely but possible: {JJ, 88, 77, 87s, T7s, air}
my focus is on the likely & less likely group. Pretty much all of those hands will do the betting for you on the turn so you don't lose much by checking. By checking (or betting less than psb) you make it impossible for villain to escalate the betting to the 4th tempo (4th postflop PSB) which is a dangerous place to be with, ahem, the giant that is the 7th nuts.
