2/5
UTG straddle to 10

I've been playing w Villain for a few hours. He lost his stack to somebody's boat. I have seen him lay down AK on the river though he hit an A. Also I have seen him overvalue flopped trips on a turn that brought in straights and flushes. 40's dude in track suit.

My image is tight and I have recently lost a set v straight for like 80bb.

Hero CO ($1100) J J and makes it 40
weak-passive dude calls from BU
V ($950) calls in BB
UTG folds

Flop (135): Q3J
V checks
Hero bets $95
one fold
V calls

Turn ($325): 3
V gives a speech about how he's on diamonds so I shouldn't bet too much to price him out. He checks. I have a boat, so I don't.
I lead $180 (and I plan on shoving all rivers)
V check-raises all-in $800. I have not seen him do this. Hero must call about 600 to win about 1300.

Is this a trivial call?
Against {QQ,33,KdTd,Td9d} hero is 33% exactly, so I think it's pretty close.
V doesn't raise pre, so he doesn't have QQ, right? Then this is an easy call.

You got to call if he has Queens it's a cooler and if it's pocket 3s then he got real lucky. Based on his speech at the end I'm guessing he has pocket 3s and showed on 3 at a time. I would assume pocket Queens reraises preflop but could have slow played it.
The thing is the check raise on the turn is generally strong and wouldn't be a drawing hand, well usually. I'm guess your up against quads or pocket Queens. How did it play out? I assumed u called

I'm calling it off. He could have A3 Q3 J3 maybe flush draw or open ended. Obviously we lose to QQ and 33. I ask this, would we check raise jam with 33? Maybe but ima say no. Would he have 3bet QQ pre? Wouldn't he have check raised QQ earlier?

I'm not folding 3rd nuts. if he has 33 well nice hand. QQ I guess but just seems strange he would play it that way. Losing to one outers is the extreme of variance. I'm calling

Yea I guess once we add in some A3, Q3, J3 it becomes an even easier call.

V did in fact show 33.
Maybe I'll mark this one as a data point for the power of speeches.

@paj bad luck buddy you played it well. He just got real lucky with his one outer. When he check raised all in he was not scared of anything and from reading ur post before it even got to the spoiler part it was at worse a set of Queens only because peeps mostly post bad beats. Chin up and crush it in your next session

He has a3dd just as often as 33 here since you said he overvalued trips earlier (and as such might also give the nuts speech), and we can at least somewhat discount qq due to pre