Table was 5 handed, then 4 players just moved to the table to fill it pretty late at night mid week in vegas. I had been at the table about 30 mins. This is the third(?) hand after the tables combined. Was only one clear fish at the table, I knew the table wasnt much money to be gained and maybe even was tough enough that i would be a loser at the table, but was figuring id grab an hour of practice against a tough table because im hoping to transition to 5/10 this year

HJ (1kish) was a new to the table regish but not super sharky looking dude

Button (covers) was backpack toting decent sized stack having shark. talking about a hand he had played at the previous table and was telling one of the other regs that moved to the new table that he has “called his coach and his fold had been in error”, so the dude has a poker coach on speed dial.

SB (covers) was at the table from before, had 3 bet a few times, def a solid player.

BB (covers) was new to the table and another reg, but dont actually remember what he looked like.

Hero (1300) 30something weekend warrior WG trying to be battle reg. I dont know how much the rest maters sinc SB was tye only one at the table but... Very aggressive, sometimes to my benefit and sometimes not so much. I would say i tend to be extremely good for long stretches where I vacuum up chips or lose money but made clearly good plays, and my biggest leak tends to be when I make one massive expensve spaz (typically I make a decent amount of money with hero calls and big bluffs, but then once every few sessions I go “over the edge” and do something like hero calling down 3 streets super light in a stupid spot or running a bad bluff that represents nothing, and then i look like te maniac that I sort of am). had been in the casino 3-4 times this week, and had two huge sessions where i had 3k+ stacks, so its possible some of the regs noticed me or my stack, but i hadnt played with any of them before. I havent gotten way out of line preflop, but ive been hammering the bet button.

My table had been pretty squeeze happy, and i was expecting one of the new regs to squeeze early on since that tends to happen with people leveling

V in HJ raises to 25

I look down at AKo in CO. So basically we are looking for a plan here, the standard play would be a 3 bet, which I do think would be a good play, but Im thinking it might benefit me to let the new regs know i cant be bullied when i cold call, so I elect to flat, thinking btn may 3B wide here, same with the blinds.

button calls, SB folds, BB makes it $135. HJ folds.

So my original plan was to back raise as a squeeze, but HJ folded and im gett8ng decent odds somewhat IP, but if button comes along, im in between the raiser and the button, which doesnt seem good. So I think as played back 4 bet seems pretty clear, its just a question of sizing, I could maybe just do a CIB type 4 to force Btn to fold and to keep the Axs type hands in the pot, like maybe make it 260? Or maybe I should bet enough that we have a PSB behind otf, and we force his junk to fold, like $450?

Hero makes it $325 (im thinking I really dont like this sizing for a few reasons, it makes awkward stack sizes, and it also maybe makes V think that he has fold equity vs me if he jams, whereas 450 would probably make all his jams value, which...actually means I might be able to fold)

BTN snap folds, BB thinks for a while and eventually jams.

I assume im calling here? even if its only QQ+ AK i think i have odds or close to it (dont have my pokerstove with me), and added cost of folding if its near neutral EV is i might as well pack up and leave if I fold because im going to get picked on to no end.

I dont know if im leveling myself into calling vs a monster thinking there is a leveling war that hasnt even started yet, or if this is exactly the type of thing that happens at a regfest and i just need to shrug call.

Lol you thought this out so well already that there isn't much to add. Great thoughts on how you should have sized differently. I would personally lean towards the small raise since I hate to fold to a jam. As played I reluctantly fold. I don't necessarily believe we are beat but I think the flip/behind ratio is enough that I'm not stacking off 260bbs in a neutralish EV spot. I tend to give regs more credit for a shove if they have no history with you. Also relevant is that you said you chose to play a possibly -EV game for experience. At best this is close. By folding you can keep playing and get that experience you stayed for.

I think I would actually find a fold but it's a live read situation. Getting all in with a stack that big in what is probably around 0EV is not good unless you have a couple more stacks to buy in with.

I think that is the key factor here. You have no idea if you are in a leveling war yet or what villain's range is. Your back raise in this situation is often a middle pair so villain can be wide enough that you are priced in but you have no idea yet and it's more likely you are crushed then well ahead. I work with the principle of not getting creative against unknown opponents. I don't know how to react when they don't fold.

As you mentioned, I hate your 4! sizing for the reasons you stated and I think a good reg would view it as weak so I would argue his range is wider than a normal 5!. I would have raised to 450/called as you are totally crushed by only AA, 70/30 dog vs KK and you block both.

AP, I would shrug call his shove based on all of the above. Alternatively you could have flatted the 3! IP which I would have done if I did not want to call a 5! shove.

So wrt not wanting to coinflip for this much, I am more than fully rolled at this level (23k or so in cash) and dont play for the money except to use as a high score. so if this was exactly ev neutral i would likely call. I basically GII way way way more often than most people and am extremely variance heavy, as I think it creates fear equity for those who are more variance averse at the table.

I will say i still feel it when i lose or win 1300 still since im newish to the level, but when I lose or win ~$700 or less I am completely numb to it because it happened to me so often.

yeah, this is a good point and it did end up being my last hand except i think itd be a seriously even more annoying than i signed up for session after getting my fancy play BS blown up.(also this is my first back 4 bet ever.)

also results are obvious

I agree with the not getting tricky with unknowns. It's hard to tell what ranges they perceive for a back raise. You may get into situations of leveling yourself.

Is it bad to fold when you've already committed over a third of your stack? I guess you can make an exploitative fold here in this spot. BB can't be that solid raising so little OOP, so it seems his hand is likely face up, i.e. AA, KK, at worst QQ.

This, but I really like OP's thought process and general plan. Because OP's smallish back raise sizing is a little awkward and given the good/aggressive nature of the table OP describes, I disagree that this is AA/KK/QQ only.

I also admire OPs emotional numbness in largish pots and agree that OP is probably picking off more than his share of small money when playing against more risk averse opponents.

I think it depends a lot on how Villain views you. had you played with him in the last few days? had he seen you run up multiple stacks?

If you are unknown to him, I think it's a fold. He's more likely to take an unknown's 4b at face value IMO. If he knows you are a good/aggro player, he's going to be skeptical of your line and 5b lighter, I think.

This is all based on the assumption that V is a player capable of 5-betting light (And by light, I mean wider than KK, AA). This is a pretty big assumption IMO, as most players aren't.

All things considered, it's probably a fold since we need to make a lot of assumptions to make it a call, and I don't think we know that much about our V in this case, so we end up levelling ourselves while his actual range might be precisely AA.

Sigh fold... I don't think any good reg in 2-5 level would 5bet allin for bluff. AKo is way behind here.

he 3 bet to >5x the original raise, id say that his bet sizing was exactly where it should be, you could nitpick maye $20 more.

Why is there no math anywhere ITT? You guys just blindly guessing at whether you have the equity to call it off?

I mentioned my lack of pokerstove in OP, all ive got is my crappy old ipad. I plan on checking it out when i get home sunday. If my memory serves you play often in games like this so id be curious as to what you think.

I dunno, it's not like my game regularly has 5! jams for 260bb that would be anything less than AA, but I can't shake the feeling that V is wide here. Hero's flat/backraise from the CO probably looks like 66-TT, AQ-AK to V. He probably feels like he can jam all his Axs, KQs type hands and print money against Hero's perceived range.

OP described the table as squeeze happy, so if V has a typical squeezing range from the blinds, something like 88+, A2-A5s, A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, then he's going to feel pretty good about jamming with that range against Hero's perceived range.

You absolutely have to be properly rolled to make this call, but I think it's a call. And a big +1 to sizing the 4! backraise larger to prevent the appearance of V having FE. I like $425.

Your 4bet sizing is fine, bigger would be quite silly.

As played I lean toward a fold because this is AA so very often

Please elaborate the bolded because I actually think the sizing is very important in this spot as $325 only gives us ~1.7-1 to call the shove whereas $450 (that I advocated) gives us over 2-1 to call.

I don't mind his sizing if he is 4!/folding his entire range, but if that were the case we wouldn't have this thread.

You need very high confidence that AK is in the range here to hop aboard the Variance Train. To me, this is completely a math spot. Plug in the ranges and put a $EV on each. Study the results so that you know it cold. Obviously, running AK into KK+ is gonna hurt.

i would definitely 3bet the first time around. i will have some wider 3bet bluffs vs a late position open. i would prefer to flat some AKs hands occasionally, but 3betting them vast majority of time.

as played, i would also clearly back raise the bb 3bet. i would have sized a little bit bigger, but its ok i think.

i fold to the 5bet jam. stacking off 260 bb with AK is no bueno IMO. 99% of $2/5 players are not sick enough where you have to call off. its not great to be putting in 25% of stack and then folding preflop... but i think its better than calling off here.

if you are that worried about adjusting your play vs tougher regs and good $5/10 players, i would say you should think about your range as a whole.. how often are you flatting AK and are you flatting AA/KK here some % as well? In $5/10 and vs better players its better to just play your ranges imo... but vs like the vast vast majority of $2/5 players, i would 100% be folding here to a 5bet.

Sounds like the A, where a potentially good reg is going to default perceive a LP backraise as near-always AK (which it is) w/o info and he will gii with the proper range accordingly, so you're pretty fkd. Your 4b sizing choice (problematic for reasons you outlined)+dead money+single BI stack makes the math side close, but it's a bad call-off because you're compounding on 2 mistakes you already made pre and have absolutely no handle on what BBs 3b range looks like, let alone his 5b shoves. You even titled this thread as a potential leveling spot but you have no data on that which is all that leveling is by definition.

Now, you got way out of line pre flatting the 25 open. There are AK flats all over the table as part of routine play and as exploits of course, but the moment I see that open sizing go in from HJ, I would snap make it 85 always because he's likely not a pro (or is an out of state reg which is also good news--generally speaking). Sure that's an assumption, but not taken as far as flatting to trap squeezes without a pair. Also, if you're going to do this, you might prefer to flat and play the hand that the BB is repping, that makes money early in a hand. The btn is of somewhat little consequence given if he continues facing ANY action post flop his range is strongest.

I think if you’re going to backraise 4! you gotta know what you’re going to do if you get shoved on and I’m generally not backraise 4! unless I’m prepared to call it off.

3! is standard and makes the hand play much smoother. No idea what to do here it’s mostly a range estimate + live read.

For the several people who oppose the move simply because he is unknown, IMO if you simply cant perform certain moves (such as a backraise 4!) against an unknown V, that is throwing money away. I think that type of thinking is exactly why youll notice that tough good pros constantly put the screws on any unknown who sits down at the table, and if you want to be a tough good pro, you need to be capable of understanding the general “range of ranges” of an unknown villan. In this case, i think that unknown villans squeeze wide when they first sit BECAUSE they know how rarely someone will play back at them without info. I think his 5! Range could just be KK+ but i think unknowns all combined together certainly have plenty of other ranges, and possibly even some straight spew.

So i had literally never back 4! Bet, and i was thinking that having zero back 4! Range makes me very exploitable to squeezes. Earlier in the trip CO raised, btn called, i 3!, CO called, btn made it like 400 with 600 more behind, and i had JTs. I was thinking he probably had 77-TT, maybe AK or AQ so i could jam and id likely pick it up or be flipping for COs money, but of course what if im wrong? And do i even have FE once he put in 40% of his stack? It seemed like the exploitable strat was to jam for value and fold pretty wide, but idk. I really am trying to figure out what a back 4 bet range would look like if it wasnt just 77-TT/AK/maybe AQ. What to do with s 5! With that type of range has me completely puzzled.

This could be and maybe i was putting my range on 77-TT specifically because thats what i pit earlier V on (and also because its the top of my typical flatting range, because i dont think ive flatted with AK in over a year)

I would have loved the backraise so much more if we were $500 effective so that we could be the one to put in the last bet with AKo.

I suspect you're probably worrying far too much about this. I would just fold to the 3bet. Doesn't look like a great spot. They probably already know you're a sicko baller in a good way (or a bad way). Are they really looking to pick on the 30something weekend warrior? Either way, it sounds like you're a strong confident player and can adapt to how they perceive you. I don't think they'll start to push you around when you give up the $25.

I am someone who is also happy to ride the variance train. But I'm looking to make money postflop in position and usually when I am the last aggressor preflop. If I've decided I'm open to a preflop war at LLSNL, it will usually be at shallower stacks when I can be the last to put the money in or because I'm facing a known maniac.

I'm not qualified to comment any further because with stacks this deep I would only ever 4-bet with either a hand I'm happy to stack off with vs the opponent in question or, once in a blue moon, with a complete bluff like ace-small suited or Q9s if I think they're 3-betting me light. At this level, I rarely witness this kind of deepstack preflop violence with AK between regs unless one of them is a known maniac reg.

My own view is that he's not doing this with AKo very often. But you probably can't discount all AK because in villain's eyes, the back-raise may look odd and because... well, it appears you may have a reputation.

Your pot odds to call are 37%.

Here are some of the equities...

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

35,958,384 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsKh	38.82%	6,524,615	14,872,028
AK,AA,KK,QQ	61.18%	14,561,741	14,872,028

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

23,972,256 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsKh	33.24%	6,337,777	3,259,576
AxKx,AA,KK,QQ	66.76%	14,374,903	3,259,576

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

20,547,648 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsKh	30.86%	6,263,357	154,500
AA,KK,QQ	69.14%	14,129,791	154,500

Really interesting spot. Keen to learn from yourself and others who are more familiar with this kind of Vegas reg-on-reg deepstack pre-flop violence at 2/5 live.

Why do you think you need one? How are you being exploited? If they’re squeezing to narrow you have lots of good folds. If they’re squeezing too wide you have plenty of good calls, besides, you are not going to be the only defender in many of these hands and in many other spots when deep you should be able to find a good range to call/overcall.

This. You need to know the answer to the 5! question before you make the 4!.

But there is only one way to know the answer to the 5! Question, which is to call the stack off. I currently have a sample size of 1 in this exact situation (and its AA), but here are two other hands ive personally played at 2/5 which led me towards a call:

Extremely wide fishy V (who i have been pounding and isolating) raises UTG+2 to $20. I raise UTG+3 to 90 with TT. LJ calls, HJ calls, btn (reg who i had played with several times before and who sorta sucks imo but seems to make money at least sometimes, so maybe he is a winner) makes it 250. UTG+3 folds, i jam for 1100 effective, Folds to btn who calls with A8s.

I raise HJ to $25 with JJ (was raising wide, but hadnt 3 or 4 bet all game because this was right when i started at 2/5 and hadnt adjusted by tightening my raising range, and was getting eaten alive by 3 bets) BB (solid player who hadnt been way out of line but maybe 3 bet me one other time)!makes it $125, i make it $350, BB jams for $1200, i call, he shows KQs.

The thing is neither of these were against unknowns, so its possible table image was part of it and didnt include back 4! Bets, so yeah i dont know how often people are jamming in this specific spot yet. I dont know if much of anyone here has the requisite sample size in this extremely specific situation to know for sure, which may wel be why the opinions are so widespread.