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Old 05-24-2015, 11:00 PM   #1
Vinyl_Pimp
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2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

2/5 Home game, hero is first timer in this game, all the Vs have played with each others, players of all types. All Vs have deep stacks between 2-8k, UTG straddle is standard and I have not seen a single hand folded pre in 5 hours.

Hero (3500) - Chinese in early 30s. Played more loose than usual because the host told me once I played too tight and I need to give up more EV (Straddle etc) as it is a home game. Lost first buyin of 2500 after card dead + bad play, re bought for 2000, ran it down to 1600 and had a double up against a tight player after raising UTG with QJdd, 7 callers, flop KT2 rainbow, Hero bets 150, 1 caller, turn Ac, hero bets 325, V raises 725, Hero jams, V calls and QJ holds.

Against V I have played straight forward, always raise with good hand, and have shown him the winners to keep the game friendly.

V (2500) - Mid 50s rich guy, really loose pre, passive post flop but bet huge when he thinks he has winning hand. Made couple of good lay down against Hero, especially when he had QJ on KQ6Jcc board, Hero raised on the turn with ATo, he called but folded to a small bet on river when third club hits.

Hero has AK on BTN

MP (A pro) raises to 20 from HJ, HERO 3! to 70, V calls from SB, MP calls,

Flop (220)

Ak7

Chks to Hero, Hero bets 200, SB min clicks 400, MP folds.

Hero? I think I am ahead but there could be a lot of killer cards on turn. What sizing will you choose if you are to raise, or is it just a call?
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:27 PM   #2
proBono
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

like 900-1000 and ship turn.

But: there are only 9 (Flushouts) OTT .. less than 20% chance that you will see an action killer card.

Don`t fold .. the rest is up to you.
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:35 PM   #3
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

It's a very clear call.

Re-popping is spew.

See a turn in position. Generally but not always calling turn bets and making tough river decisions.

See if a turn or river card slows him down. Pay attention to bet sizing.

Go forward recognizing you block the nut flush draw (and have the backdoor draw + 4 boat cards).

If he's loose enough to have A7 and K7 pre, let's consider that.

Those are 6+6 = 12 combos. 77 is just 3 combos. It's not impossible he has 1 of 2 total AA,KK.
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:43 PM   #4
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Hefty reraise. Never just call if you suspect he's on flush draw. Think about what would happen on the turn if you just called and a heart hit. You'd have the nut flush draw which you'd have a hard time getting away from. Better to price him out of the hand now and take it.
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:49 PM   #5
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinyl_Pimp View Post
Hero? I think I am ahead but there could be a lot of killer cards on turn. What sizing will you choose if you are to raise, or is it just a call?
I agree you're usually ahead. Probably often even ahead enough to call down, but let's see the future streets, cards, bets, and action. Yes, you don't love seeing a turn heart, etc. But calling is the most +EV play, and you really need to consider the stack depth dynamics.

We got to the flop with an SPR of 12. Regardless of reads, the flop is a call. With your read that you know this guy can fold second best hands post-flop, it's a clear call. If you re-pop, you rarely get max value from K7, A7. Your hand will look pretty much like AA, KK, AK after you 3-bet pre and then on the flop 3-bet facing the min c/r. Even non-hand readers will know it.

You'd have to know V is a maniac who raises and stacks off with worse. That doesn't apply to many villains. For example, the more likely he is to station off with worse (i.e. he's PASSIVE), the LESS likely he is to raise the flop without a monster hand in the first place. You see? The flop is a call against like 95% of villains.
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:53 PM   #6
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork_Chop View Post
Hefty reraise. Never just call if you suspect he's on flush draw. Think about what would happen on the turn if you just called and a heart hit. You'd have the nut flush draw which you'd have a hard time getting away from. Better to price him out of the hand now and take it.
What techniques inform your suspicions of whether or not V is on a flush draw? The only clue we actually have is that we block the nut flush draw. That makes flush draws quite a bit less likely.

Another clue is that he's loose pre. If he can play a ton of suited cards a pre-flop 3-bet oop, well OK - then he can certainly have a bunch of flush draws. In that case, I'd still call flop and then consider raising (probably shoving) over a turn bet depending on sizing on a non-heart.

We'll have to see what OP thinks about that... like does V really station pre with raggy flush cards? Like 8h2h? How many you think? That's a very important question, because if he can have ATC flush cards, he can have 45 flush draws. Somehow I think that's very unlikely and something like ~5-10 make more sense.

Of course you're not folding the turn on a heart. We have top two pair, which can still be the best hand, the re-draw to the nut flush, and 4 boat cards.
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Old 05-25-2015, 01:38 AM   #7
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

You mentioned that villain tends to bet huge postflop when he thinks he has the best hand. Have you ever seen him make small postflop bets, or minraise like this?

Given description, it feels like villain's raise here is a typical bad player info-raise. If that's the case then he's not likely to give action to a flop 3-bet, and you already noted he made a good laydown earlier this session. I'm in the flatting camp here. If we thought villain was the type to raise all draws, then I'd prefer a 3-bet and jam turn, but it doesn't seem like that's the case from the reads provided.
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Old 05-25-2015, 08:55 AM   #8
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Willyoman - That is top class analysis, you have listed all the things I could have thought about before my action.

But calling is the most +EV play, and you really need to consider the stack depth dynamics.

- I agree, to keep his worse in and let him barrel turn that I am likely to be still ahead, if not drawing live to 11 outs (If he has 77 or xxhh).

Like 8h2h? How many you think? That's a very important question, because if he can have ATC flush cards, he can have 45 flush draws.

- I found 49 combos after taking off A, K and 7, having only seen him play for 5 hours, he has played 60%+ of hands and have seen him barreled or called down 2 street with non nut flush draw (Q high and T high)

You'd have to know V is a maniac who raises and stacks off with worse. That doesn't apply to many villains. For example, the more likely he is to station off with worse (i.e. he's PASSIVE), the LESS likely he is to raise the flop without a monster hand in the first place. You see?
If we thought villain was the type to raise all draws, then I'd prefer a 3-bet and jam turn, but it doesn't seem like that's the case from the reads provided.

- TOTALLY AGREE.

Because this is a friendly game, all major all in have run twice / 3 times. I think I made the most -EV play of all.


Spoiler:
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Old 05-25-2015, 09:24 AM   #9
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinyl_Pimp View Post
2/5 Home game, hero is first timer in this game, all the Vs have played with each others, players of all types. All Vs have deep stacks between 2-8k, UTG straddle is standard and I have not seen a single hand folded pre in 5 hours.

Hero (3500) - Chinese in early 30s. Played more loose than usual because the host told me once I played too tight and I need to give up more EV (Straddle etc) as it is a home game. Lost first buyin of 2500 after card dead + bad play, re bought for 2000, ran it down to 1600 and had a double up against a tight player after raising UTG with QJdd, 7 callers, flop KT2 rainbow, Hero bets 150, 1 caller, turn Ac, hero bets 325, V raises 725, Hero jams, V calls and QJ holds.

Against V I have played straight forward, always raise with good hand, and have shown him the winners to keep the game friendly.

V (2500) - Mid 50s rich guy, really loose pre, passive post flop but bet huge when he thinks he has winning hand. Made couple of good lay down against Hero, especially when he had QJ on KQ6Jcc board, Hero raised on the turn with ATo, he called but folded to a small bet on river when third club hits.

Hero has AK on BTN

MP (A pro) raises to 20 from HJ, HERO 3! to 70, V calls from SB, MP calls,

Flop (220)

Ak7

Chks to Hero, Hero bets 200, SB min clicks 400, MP folds.

Hero? I think I am ahead but there could be a lot of killer cards on turn. What sizing will you choose if you are to raise, or is it just a call?
Grunch:

If V is truly passive, then he isn't c/r here with just a flush draw. Maybe, just maybe he raises here with QJhh, QThh, JThh, but that's it and those don't raise 100% of the time. It's way more likely V has A7, K7, 77, AK here. AA and KK are not likely as he prob 3bets those pre.

So you're looking at:

6 combos A7
6 combos K7
3 combos 77
4 combos AK (against which you're freerolling)

This looks like a pretty clear call on flop and be willing to get the money in on any non 7 turn. That said, folding to aggression when a 7 peels on turn/river.

bet/folding for about $450 on a turn 7 and V checks to us, checking behind on river if he just calls our turn bet, folding if he leads river.
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Old 05-25-2015, 09:26 AM   #10
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Grunch:

Mini tank flat the flop.
Jam the turn over his bet which should be between 400 - 650.
Which means he is only calling ~1400 more into a pot that will have over 3500 in it.
He will have put in ~ 2/5 of his stack, making him feel more commited.
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Old 05-25-2015, 09:48 AM   #11
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

I like delayed turn jam here. Tank and ask to spread the pot to "count your odds", and hope none heart comes OTT to jam.
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Old 05-25-2015, 09:59 AM   #12
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Cool man. BTW, he can't have 49 flush draws

You don't need to count them by hand.

With 3 hearts accounted for, there are 10 left in the deck.

You need 2 hearts for a flush draw.

So you type into Google "10 choose 2." That's your number of possible (assuming ATC suited hands, which probably isn't the right assumption) flush draws.
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Old 05-25-2015, 02:44 PM   #13
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinyl_Pimp View Post
Willyoman - That is top class analysis, you have listed all the things I could have thought about before my action.

But calling is the most +EV play, and you really need to consider the stack depth dynamics.

- I agree, to keep his worse in and let him barrel turn that I am likely to be still ahead, if not drawing live to 11 outs (If he has 77 or xxhh).

Like 8h2h? How many you think? That's a very important question, because if he can have ATC flush cards, he can have 45 flush draws.

- I found 49 combos after taking off A, K and 7, having only seen him play for 5 hours, he has played 60%+ of hands and have seen him barreled or called down 2 street with non nut flush draw (Q high and T high)

You'd have to know V is a maniac who raises and stacks off with worse. That doesn't apply to many villains. For example, the more likely he is to station off with worse (i.e. he's PASSIVE), the LESS likely he is to raise the flop without a monster hand in the first place. You see?
If we thought villain was the type to raise all draws, then I'd prefer a 3-bet and jam turn, but it doesn't seem like that's the case from the reads provided.

- TOTALLY AGREE.

Because this is a friendly game, all major all in have run twice / 3 times. I think I made the most -EV play of all.


Spoiler:
If we're not being results oriented, I still say you played this correctly. It's a pretty wet board with a lot of potential straight and flush draws out there. The vast majority of villains are calling your shove with their inferior two pair. I still like the play.

That being said, either villain has a more nit style than you realize OR he's got a helluva read on you and maybe you should consider mixing up your game a bit.
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Old 05-25-2015, 04:37 PM   #14
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Re: 2/5 AKo Top 2 on button, facing min click on flop

So are you shoving the 3Bet shoving the flop for value or protection against a monster draw?

I 3 bet to $1000 HOPING for a call from QJ/QTs or worse, and he will only have $1430 left into a $2200 pot. Shipping turn.
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