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2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? 2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet?

11-26-2013 , 11:08 AM
Villain 1 (420$): Sat down at the table about an hour and a half ago. Mid 40s, unshaven, wearing sweatpants. Looks like a huge degen but has been nitting it up in the hour he has been there, barely entered any pots and the ones he has been in he has just called a raise pre, haven't seen any aggression pre or post. The exception to this, is every time I have raised he has called me and was sticky to my cbet in one spot. May be sample size but I think he is trying to play pots with me because I have most of the money on the table and have been pounding brews (standard for me).

Villain 2 (700$): Late 20s/early 30s, LAG with a hoodie. Haven't played much with him but he raises frequently pre-flop and is positionally aware. Much better than the average villain in the field but puts money in the pot too often in a FR game IMO.

My Image (2k$): Usually have a fishy image since I drink but most regs see through that. Pretty tight up front but very aggressive in LP this session. Like I mentioned, get the feeling that villain 1 is looking to play pots against me and thinks I am FOS when I'm the raiser. Villains saw me raise the button with A8 after a couple limpers and win 900 on an 884hh board. So they should know I can show up with anything post-flop, but I should have a winning image



utg+ 2 limps, other limp, I raise 30$ with AKhh in CO, villain 1 calls button, villain 2 calls bb both limpers call.

Flop Jh9h5c (146$) checks to me I bet 100$ both btn and BB call.

Turn Ts (446$) BB checks to me.....



FWIW I think I may have misplayed every street in this hand. I will post my thought process for what I did on the turn later. Let me know what you think ranges are and whether a turn bet is profitable here or not and why.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 11:44 AM
Given effective stack sizes, a large turn will committ either villian to the pot so once they call turn (presumably you would bet 200-255?)they are not folding the river. I think the BB can have sets in this spot, 2p and A,J. He rarely has QQ+ given no 3 bet pre so what else is he calling the flop with? Even if he is a LAG the call on the flop is rarely a float IMO, I guess smaller flushes are in his range too.

Considering this I think FE is low from BB and relatively high from the BTN (since he wants to get involved with you in position per what you've said). In this spot, you're repping a somewhat vulnerable QQ+ type hand or perhaps Axh...since you actually have AKHH you are 25% to the nut straight or flush, so if either villain shove over your raise you'll likely have to call which is a crap spot.

Personally, I check behind and re-evaluate river.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 11:54 AM
This turn isn't very good to keep firing on because it hits there range pretty hard imo
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 12:03 PM
Stack sizes make betting turn bad here. You only have a draw, but any bet commits you against villains. I check and evaluate, but I'm not likely folding unless somebody shoves turn. Given this flop probably hit somebody and V1 on the button has been sticky but not aggressive, I would check this flop some of the time. It is a good enough flop I'm going to bet most of the time though because I'm pretty willing to get it in if either villain shoves flop.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
Stack sizes make betting turn bad here. You only have a draw, but any bet commits you against villains. I check and evaluate, but I'm not likely folding unless somebody shoves turn. Given this flop probably hit somebody and V1 on the button has been sticky but not aggressive, I would check this flop some of the time. It is a good enough flop I'm going to bet most of the time though because I'm pretty willing to get it in if either villain shoves flop.
Pretty much what I was thinking. Button's stack size is pretty annoying in this spot for a couple of reasons.

First off in the moment I felt like I had significant fold equity against BB but 0 vs. BTN. What nutted hands can BB show up with here? Even if he has KJ or something he is a reasonable enough player to assume he is never good here if I bet again since he will have to commit 100bb to the hand to find out if I have it IMO.

I ended up checking and BTN jammed.

Does anyone think sizing the flop smaller to set up a bigger turn bet is a better line here for more FE? I feel like when they both call the 100$ someone is pretty much committed to the hand unless an action killer comes.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 12:57 PM
Pre is too small, I'm not looking to play 5 way pots generally, although these V are short enough that it leaves you with an SPR that isn't bad. I'd hate it if some of the other callers had $1,000+.

Flop can be a check since you likely aren't going to fold 4 others out on that wet board. If you're going to c bet, size it smaller to keep their ranges wider. We don't want to fold out a worse flush draw, for instance. Given we are drawing and we don't think we can take this flop down very often with a c bet, we actually shouldn't mind it that much if we are called by multiple V.

Turn is a check in a 3 way pot to me. Someone is going to call you here too often. That turn hits their range pretty hard as noted by someone above.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyLikeABird
Pretty much what I was thinking. Button's stack size is pretty annoying in this spot for a couple of reasons.

First off in the moment I felt like I had significant fold equity against BB but 0 vs. BTN. What nutted hands can BB show up with here? Even if he has KJ or something he is a reasonable enough player to assume he is never good here if I bet again since he will have to commit 100bb to the hand to find out if I have it IMO.

I ended up checking and BTN jammed.

Does anyone think sizing the flop smaller to set up a bigger turn bet is a better line here for more FE? I feel like when they both call the 100$ someone is pretty much committed to the hand unless an action killer comes.
I think you are way too focused on FE in a five way pot where the flop pounds the ranges of V.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 01:06 PM
Based on the flop action I'd be surprised if either Villain flopped two-pair+. The board is super wet and I'd expect V2 to try and build the pot if he outflopped you. The turn is one of the worst cards for you given Villains' likely ranges so betting doesn't seem optimal. If you bet you're committed to call against V1 if he ships. I might like a check/shove here if BTN bets (depends on sizing) and BB folds. He definitely has worse flush draws in his range and might have floated the flop to try and take it away OTT.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 01:44 PM
You earn money by getting your c-bet called with a hand like this.

C-betting turn quite large (300) isn't actually that bad because they have a lot of one pairs + SD's that they should fold. Your equity is pretty good too vs most calls.

When you c-bet flop and bet turn it looks really nutted too.

OTT they either improved to two pair or just hit a pair + SD which they should really fold. I doubt they called flop with a gutter, it's possible with KQ. They just aren't flatting the flop with 2pair+.

From your reads button is calling flop pretty wide and folding to turn barrels pretty frequently. He's shoving turn with lots of pairs + SDs which you don't want to call against.

Stack sizes are a bit awkward but I think 300 is the same as a shove.
I really think it should be a large bet, it looks like a scare card but it's not THAT bad.
There range is much wider than 2pair+.
Button is shoving hands like QJ, QT etc. but folding them if you bet. You do really poorly check calling this turn as your equity is like 25-30% against his entire range (even nuts). But both should fold out a tonne of one pair + draw hands to make c-betting turn good.

I've probably repeated myself a few times but after playing around in stove and given descriptions I do think c-betting turn large is best.

Last edited by jambre; 11-26-2013 at 01:59 PM.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 01:55 PM
With your image I would try to weed a few more out PF as suggested. You dont want to consistantly get into these multi-way pots that can eat away at your stack with large Turn and River bets required to dampen any draws.

Decent c-bet but you were def looking at potential c/r from either V with this board, were you ready to get it in here? Probably so!!

Any bet certainly commits V1 to the pot if he calls and maybe V2 also. I like a check here with intention of calling or folding, either way. You arnt getting the right price to call here unless V1 comes along as well ... but you might be safe to assume some hearts are missing with 2 others attacking this board. A HU call here is semi-spewing IMO but I see this call made quite often either way.

I dont see too much FE on the Turn for many players who hit this Flop if you were thinking of pushing the out of the hand on a Turn like this one. GL
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyLikeABird
Does anyone think sizing the flop smaller to set up a bigger turn bet is a better line here for more FE? I feel like when they both call the 100$ someone is pretty much committed to the hand unless an action killer comes.
If your going to bet smaller, you might as well just check flop. All you have is a draw and betting smaller is just going to invite weak single pairs and bad draws to stick around. Betting smaller heads up, particularly if it get a weaker flush draw to stick around, might be good but multiway I can't see it being +EV.

The turn card you got is bad, as villain may have improved to two pair. You really have to fold to the jam even though a good villain will see this as a good situation to bluff/semi-bluff after you check turn. The problem is that villain has to fear draws here and is going to jam all of his value hands also.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
I think you are way too focused on FE in a five way pot where the flop pounds the ranges of V.
this, snap check flop imo, snap check turn as played

Quote:
You earn money by getting your c-bet called with a hand like this.
Not necessarily. You also win when your drawing odds are overlaid, as they are on the flop. You don't need to do anything to make a profit on that flop. It's already been made, and we stand to make a lot of money on the turns and rivers that make our hand.

I think betting the flop is a pretty serious mathematical mistake.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 02:42 PM
We have so much equity on the flop multiway, don't know why you'd check.

When we get called in more than one spot we have well over 1/3 equity = +EV.

Getting called in one spot we have about 50% against a range.

We also do have some FE.

Only reason not to is if we think we'll play further streets poorly, which I think we did.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 02:46 PM
just check yo
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jambre
We have so much equity on the flop multiway, don't know why you'd check.
If betting, the sizing is way too high. We do need any folds on this board to profit from it, so if you are betting, you should bet the mid-point your opponents edge in Kelly, which you will see is about $25. The only problem with this is that it opens the action to raises. Which can be fine, but it's more risky than it needs to be. If you like money and study the math, you will see that the size of your bet is inversely proportional to your ev, so the math says snap check or bet tiny. Betting tiny can sometimes reveal the strength of your hand, so you might as well conceal it and check.

The fact that the higher we bet, the more we value cut ourselves means that checking is clearly the best play, and it's not particularly close.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by attentionnoone
If betting, the sizing is way too high. We do need any folds on this board to profit from it, so if you are betting, you should bet the mid-point your opponents edge in Kelly, which you will see is about $25. The only problem with this is that it opens the action to raises. Which can be fine, but it's more risky than it needs to be. If you like money and study the math, you will see that the size of your bet is inversely proportional to your ev, so the math says snap check or bet tiny. Betting tiny can sometimes reveal the strength of your hand, so you might as well conceal it and check.

The fact that the higher we bet, the more we value cut ourselves means that checking is clearly the best play, and it's not particularly close.
That's not true at all.

If we bet with 80% equity and they fold their 20% all of the time then our EV is higher than checking.

If we bet 50 and get called in two spots with 40% equity then our EV is higher than checking.

The reason why betting is good is that we fold out "dead equity" (i.e. hands that we cannot extract value from but actually have equity in the pot) + when we get called in multiple spots we earn money as we have like 40% equity regardless of the amount of callers. When we have only one caller our ability to take the pot away on further streets improves so is also not a bad result.

We can sweeten the pot and just go for the nuts by betting lower or we can take an aggressive line, trying to take down pots on the turn instead. Checking is just plain bad.

This is like a 101 on why nut flush draw is so good.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jambre
We have so much equity on the flop multiway, don't know why you'd check.

When we get called in more than one spot we have well over 1/3 equity = +EV.

Getting called in one spot we have about 50% against a range.

We also do have some FE.

Only reason not to is if we think we'll play further streets poorly, which I think we did.
Ya but the goal in betting flop is more to get called multiway and peel a turn than to capture FE. Flop pounds their ranges really hard.

I think betting turn hard is lighting money on fire.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
I think betting turn hard is lighting money on fire.
Why do you think this?

From descriptions they're probably calling flop pretty wide with a weak range which has good equity vs us.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 03:23 PM
T pounds their flop calling range.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 03:52 PM
You absolutely have fold equity but this board hits all over Vs range. I would check turn hoping for a free river and probably folding to a net
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
Ya but the goal in betting flop is more to get called multiway and peel a turn than to capture FE. Flop pounds their ranges really hard.

I think betting turn hard is lighting money on fire.
Yeah this exactly. If betting the flop, we should bet the amount that prices in the worst hand that calls, so it has to be really really small. Otherwise, you are getting hands you want to call to fold, hands you want to call to raise. A clear value cut of your drawing odds.

A lot of this depends on the stacks sizes of all the players on the flop. We don't have that info. If all the stacks are short, you can pound this flop. But anything around and avg stack size of 100 bbs, your optimum bet size is somewhere around 1/8th of the pot. As your bet size increases from there, your ev decreases. This is because you priced out weaker hands that can improve to pay you off later (a turned set that also makes a heart flush), and priced in hands that have an equal equity edge and can blow you off turns.

If all the stacks were around 50bb then you can just bet bet bet and win but when there is enough chips to see rivers, you should play your drawing odds and forget about getting folds.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
T pounds their flop calling range.
.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 10:10 PM
Yeah the T just smacked everything, and you no longer have enough FE to bet the turn. Anything but checking the turn is simply a bad play. This is an important flop to know how to play because there are two and only two ways to make money in poker: Getting calls when you have the best hand and folds when you don't.

On this flop, you want to keep it multi-way. The more players that can add to the pot, the more money you make. I'm sure you could actually bet $25 and people will be confused enough to all call. But someone smart can figure out that the nut flush draw is the ONLY hand you can bet tiny with without being a spew monkey. But I will wager that in most poker games you can bet 5 reds and no one will be able to put you on your hand. But in theory, if you check, you give away no information about the strength of your hand, retain drawing odds, and can still use FE in another profitable place, thereby making up for that unrealized gain.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-26-2013 , 10:17 PM
Actually, in looking at stack sizes, I'd shove right here because they are short enough that they can call without nuts and they can fold everything but nuts.

Since you did bet the flop and bet it high, I think a better play than checking now is just jamming. You have both of em well covered and you can rep JJJ or nuts. It's the only way to make the flop not a mistake.

Also, on the flop, all of the stack sizes are important to set your bet sizes, so in order to calc opimum bet size, you need all the sizes. If you can get all the money in before the river, you can start jamming the flop and turn. If you can't, you have to just draw.
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote
11-27-2013 , 05:14 PM
In thinking about this hand a little more, it's a no-brainer turn jam because neither player EVER has a straight right now. You block the K of hearts and no one is ever peeling for the gutter sucker straight. So you definitely have fold equity.

It is important to note what all the stack sizes are. If they are relatively short, like V1, 2/3 pot/jam turn is extremely profitable. But most 2/5 games play 200-250 deep, so it's a disaster when you bet high on the flop and can't profitably get everything in on the turn. What tends to happen is you bet turn misses for your hand, and someone blows you out and denies your odds. Or you check turn misses and some joker comes out with a PSB that you can't call profitably.

Smaller bets on big stacks insures you get your odds squared up. I still like checking, but definitely snap jam as played because you have plenty of FE since you are the only player who could conceivably have the current nuts and you have lotsa nut outs
2/5: AKhh, any FE on a turn bet? Quote

      
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