9 handed - 2/5, 500 capped buyin

Hero sat down 3 hands ago
Hero OTB AK(400, 80bb): Hero just lost a 3bet pot last hand and did not get a chance to top off.
Villian UTG +1 covers(older asian dressed in flashy clothing): No history but I could not tell if he is your usual asian loose gambler based off of appearances.

Preflop:
3 limps, hero raises to 30. All fold except Villian.

Flop:
K77 (70 in pot)

Villian checks, hero checks

Turn:
K7710 (70 in pot)

Villain checks, hero bets 40, villain raises to 100. Hero?

Hero has 330 remaining, villain covers.

Call

Not happy about the raise but your hand is too good to give up yet. If villain bets into hero big on the river then I would think about it.

I'd bet like $25 otf with my entire preflop range.

Call. I would go larger preflop 35-40 depending on the dynamic.

I am mostly range betting this flop though I don’t hate a x back here WA/WB.

Bet flop. Might just shove turn now bc I ain’t calling turn and folding river in 500cap w TPTK readless. I expect lots of give ups from most Vs too if facing a bet-call from hero - it’s easier to jam it in w/o a spade as well. Also, it’s just a wider than usual ckr range spot for most Vs once flop cks through, you stab/look light, his range picked up lots of eq on Ts turn in the form of draws which I want to punish.

Shoving turn makes no sense. Our hand is a spaz/bluff catcher. If somebody is aggressive enough to c/r paired board ott with random spades or straight draw, then they're aggressive enough to bet the river when they miss.

Definitely bet this flop. The question should do we bet TT and AJs, not if we bet AK. We want to start building this pot, since we can't get stacks in with just two streets.

Call turn. No point raising. He can be doing this with a lot of junk trying to see where he is at. Jamming just gets those hands to fold and snapped by 7x, KTs.

Maybe you can help me word my thoughts correctly? To me there is a trade off because stacks are shallow. I think the calling frequency of hands we want value from ott (when we shove turn) is greater than the bluffing frequency of hands we want to bluff catch otr (when we flat turn).

And when it comes to river via bet-call turn, are you ever folding getting 2:1 on a shove? Things get a little messy there especially if V bluffing frequencies go down because of the shallowness and ‘dammit that didn’t work’ factor.

The problem is while he may bluff less frequently with his air than he may go with worse hands on the turn when we jam, these are both probably low frequencies. What will happen a lot when we jam turn is get snapped by hands that crush us, and we lose a ton of EV there.

Also, a lot of hands that we beat that will GII on the turn if we jam may call a river bet on certain rivers.

I don't really see how worse hands checkraise turn and call a 3b. If he has KJ or w/e, he's just gonna bet the turn. If you jam the turn for value, you're assigning a high probability that he's clicking buttons. But then, he can be clicking buttons with J8o or w/e, and in such cases you miss value by jamming.

Overplayed Kxss, QJ, 98, spades, other dumb stuff, perhaps reaching. Just seems like one of those spots where V made a mistake with hands that aren’t 7x and all the drawy stuff is gonna cry call it off/otherwise give up river. Single-bullet clicker bluff line. I’m not good at short stack LFR, I would just wanna stack off with anything top pair+ all the time.

Thanks for the replies.

I thought folding was out of the question without history/reads. I thought calling was an option but did not know if it made sense to call a turn raise and fold to any flush/straight made rivers including the A. I thought raising, all in in this case, would induce Kx to make a light call, or show FE to V's potential flush/straight chasing.

I am more used to playing 150bb deep formerly at 1/2 tables and had just made the jump up. I also realized I was midstacked (80bb) in this hand and subconsciously thought older asian dude was more likely to hold cards that were chasing.

I jammed and villian showed Q7o. Blank river.

Great points about equity for making the case to only Call there. I will definitely consider those factors down the line. I think I was getting the money in there no matter what at that point since I decided against folding (not planning to call the turn to fold to a river when river AI < pot size bet).