This is probably a pretty straight forward situation, but I'm curious if opinions differ.

Motor City Casino. Labor Day, early evening.

Hero - $2K - won a pretty large hand earlier with a turn check raise all in with a back door nut flush draw that was looked up by a KK over pair. Hit the ace on the river. I received a few groans from the table and probably a reputation for aggression.


V1 - $245 - Button has been playing a shorter stack all night. He's an older quiet guy. He likes to see flops and has smooth called all of my opens. He's not massively loose passive, just calls a little more than he should pre. When he hits top pair he is pretty much committed with his small stack to the hand.

V2 - $690 - The small blind is a thirty something lady. I've played four sessions over the holiday weekend and she's been here more than me. She is playing a fairly solid rec Reg game. I suspect she will slightly over value top pair hands and chase draws for slightly bad odds, but nothing crazy.

OTTH

AKo in the cut off. Everyone folds to me. I ($2k)open for $20. The button ($245) and the small blind ($690) call.

Flop is an A♦️ 7♣️ 5♣️ . I do not have a club.

The small blind checks, I bet $40 into $60. The button shoves $225. The small blind with $650 behind calls, leaving her with $425. I cover.

What’s my action?

All in bud

Do you have a club? It's quite important to know.

Sbs range for calling should be 2p, sets, ace with 2 clubs and maybe straight flush draw

Does she even call the jam with aj, aq, at?

Call seems standard, though a tight fold doesn't seem outlandish, I would want a little more info first.



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I presume you think the SB will not cold call any draws other than the NFD here or maybe random combo draws. In that case, flat.

Oh hold on. You're in the cutoff. Would SB threebet pre with strong aces here? If yes, then you might want to fold.

I'd expect sb to shove w OESFD but the flat was too strong expect to see at least TPNFD there, btn could have sets or max AQo

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You have less than 30% equity, in my opinion. Maybe less than 25%. You don't have the odds to justify a call, and I don't think you have the fold equity to justify an all-in. You're not committed, so just get out of the way.

fold, likely calling the first jam, but the BB flat range for $245 is stronger than AK and unlikely drawing imo. would BB flat pre, then call here AQ-AT? meh. best you can hope for is two draws, but you've likely found 2pr/set in one spot and Ac3c or similar combo flush draw in the other, making AK worse than horrible.

I'd be very surprised if neither villain has 2-pair+ here. The SB's big call with you still able to act behind represents huge strength. She's basically indifferent to you shoving here so I seriously doubt she ever has just top pair.

Best case scenario you're up against BTN's AJ/AQ and SB has AXcc or 86cc. How likely that's the case by comparison to being up against 2-pair/set and combo draw I don't know. I suppose there are 6 sets, 3 75s 2-pair and 2 to 4 A7/A5 2-pair vs 16 combos of AQ/AJ. But then there are two opponents with a shot at having 2-pair+ and SB really hardly ever has just AQ/AJ. I can't do the maths required but my gut says you're in big trouble.

You've put $60 into the pot so far and now have a pot commitment decision for $650 with top pair. For me this is a spot I can just let it go. If I have a club in my hand, particularly the Ac I'm super happy to fold here.

I do NOT have a club

I’m really not sure. I think she’d chase some good draws but not all of them. I do think she’s have a hard time folding any pair + draw.

I doubt she three bets pre with just a strong ace. I’ve seen no pre flop three bets from her and I’m at least two hours into this sesssion and have watched her play all weekend.

Why?

OK, I think you want to call then, if BTN can just shove with any ace, which seems plausible, then SB probably flats with like AJ+.

From what OP said BTN can have any ace here, and there's no reason for her to think Hero has anything, he raised from the CO so probably a wide range and is cbetting this flop a lot. She doesn't have to worry about H shoving on her with a draw or something because it's a protected pot. The fact that H can shove is really not that relevant because he's only doing it with hands that have her crushed anyway. I mean we have AK here and virtually everyone wants to either flat or fold. Flatting with like AQ is extremely reasonable imo, I'd probably do it myself although I wouldn't be thrilled about it.

Generally this is a fold. When you are ahead you are usually facing a flush draw and something else and not that far ahead. When you are behind you are facing a flush draw and two pair+ and are way behind. The only likely combos you really want to see are situations where they both have flush draws and block each other, which makes up only a small part of their ranges.

Sure, but the price is such that you need like 25% equity. I'll take my chances.

The thing is that there isn't really that much evidence that anyone has anything strong. BTN probably shoves any ace, any flush draw. SB certainly could be strong, but a lot of rec players will jam there with like a set, not wanting to allow Hero to draw cheaply. Obviously just being up against two worse aces is amazing, but being up against worse ace + flush draw is also a huge overlay. Even super bad scenarios like being against aces up + flush draw you scrape out like 8% equity, believe it or not.

Ship the nickels based on your bad image and stack sizes


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Just to put hard numbers on that, if say, BTN has JTcc and SB has AQ no club, then your expected profit on a call is about $200, that's hardly "not that far ahead". It's pretty hard to lose that much calling considering your call is $185.

Allin is insanely bad btw.

ChrisV - you're obviously more mathematically capable this me - if you have the time and inclination would you calculate our equity and EV of calling vs these two opponents' entire likely ranges?

Why?

What’s your response to a SB shove on a blank turn?
What’s your response to a SB shove on a club turn?

Same question but SB checks turn?

I'm folding anytime SB bets, it would suck if she jammed with AQ or something but it's not likely. If we're operating under the assumption that she has AQ here she's already passed up two opportunities for aggression (preflop and flop) so I'm not worried that she's going to suddenly wake up and shove the turn. This type of player is not thinking about how to get dat thin value, they don't know what is going on in the hand and are petrified of going broke.

If she checks turn I guess I shove because that's an admission that she doesn't have a set.

Edit: To be fair "insanely bad" might be overstating it, but like, I don't see what the gain is of shoving. From what OP has said, if SB has a flush draw here it ought to be the NFD and you're like even money against that OTF, it's better to take a card off and then fold if SB shoves on a club turn. If she has a worse ace it doesn't seem like there's advantage to shoving, you can just call it off or shove OTT or whatever. To me it just seems like you're going to ram your money into two pair/a set too often. When I call OTF it's because I'm getting a good price, it's not because I'm super confident that I'm ahead of SB, I just think there's enough of a chance of that.

I agree shoving is pretty bad, as in not the best play at all. I don't think SB folds AQ to the shorty shove, idk about AJ, AT. You're at the top of your range in this spot. In both BTN and SB minds you could easily just have an airy cbet here, so to let go of AK seems like poor strategy. I also don't know how likely it is that SB flops a set and slowplays it like this on a drawy flop 3 ways, lots of players would just spaz raise to isolate the shorty scared of the draws (but in SB's shoes I do prefer a flat with a set). I'd flat the AK here but obv not super loving it or anything. All other plays seem pretty terrible. BTN can shove worse, SB can flat worse, so to fold top of the range is just too tight imo.

Yep, agree totally.

I can get behind calling flop if we're genuinely capable of making a good decision on the turn. I hadn't really considered we could call flop and fold turn depending on SB action and was taking the flop decision as effectively committing unless flush comes on turn.

I'm just not sure I am good enough to fold non-club turn if SB shoves $425 into $700+ pot.