2/5. Effective stack size is 975. Villain (UTG 1) is competent, probably a shade too loose preflop. We have definitely played together but not dramatic history. He probably views me as competent and on the nitty side of TAG. I have been playing pretty snug in the hour I've been at the table. Folks at the table have made comments about how I've run good the last few days.

Hero raises 20 UTG with AKo, Villain raises to 75. Hero thinks and raises to 240. Villain thinks and calls.

His 3b range is likely most suited aces, TT+, maybe 88-99, some suited connectors, probably most suited broadway, AK. We have no 4b history, but his calling range might be close to the same minus the smaller suited aces and hands like QTs. He doesn't think more than 15 seconds before calling the 4b.

Flop: J98cc, giving me the backdoor NFD. Pot: 480. I think for 25 seconds and lead 175. Villain calls in 15 sec.

Turn: 5x. Pot: 830. I check intending to give up. Villain checks.

River: Tx. I think for 15 seconds and shove 560.

Two big questions: 1) what do we think of leading the flop? Does it hit Villain's range too hard to even attempt a cbet? 2) Given the turn checks, is the river an easy shove?

OP: do you have the Ac or Kc? Thanks!

I've got the Ac for backdoor nfd.

Terrible board obviously.
I think that if you were going to shove a river like that, you would have been better off shoving the brick turn, because at that point you represent a much wider and stronger range of hands that mostly include sets/AA/KK/QQ.
AP, when you shove this river you are far more polarized.

I hate spots like this (when you are the aggressor pre with AK OOP and whiff the flop). In the end, I think the river shove is spew.

Meh I just don’t understand why we bloated this pot oop against a competent V. Now we’re in a difficult spot with a board that favors his range. At least we have Ac. I can’t endorse the cbet here.

The turn x behind by V is a head-scratching move. You’d think he’d take this line with TT, QcQx and AQs and JTs. He’d bet KK or a set. So I agree with Xtrascratch that I’d rather jam the brick turn uncapped than this river.

That’s why I really dislike Hero’s jam here as V has 11 combos that beat us here vs. a few combos of misplayed KK or AA remaining that we’re targeting for FE.

I know you already know the echo chamber advice that's coming, but I do not know how else to advise on this one. Here it is anyway: Given the dynamic and estimated 4b defending range you laid out, you for sure have a comfortable 4b, but 240 is too big. I'd make it 170 and know that even AKo is doing well enough getting called.

On J98s it's a check even though you have the bdfd. It's just the most reasonable play on a board like this that hits the range you laid out for him so hard. If he bets flop, it's just an unfortunate outcome given the circumstances and all you're left with is a low quality bluff catcher w few outs and a hand that blocks his floats too (when you bet).

Now, AP, of course we know what you're trying to accomplish, but he has a whole lot of Qx hands that are going to ultimately call. Sure TT and KT and AK (that might have floated 175) are gonna dump, but it's just not enough to warrant the bluff.

I mean the riv bluff is close only bc of the pot size/remaining stacks coupled w the fact he should have some folding range and the fact that checking likely gives up the pot on this card nearly always. It’s just so thin bc the Tx riv means less Tx, the K in your hand means less KK/AA/whatever AKbdfd he might have floated, and lastly his line is extremely consistent w Qx hands (and Tx) which he has more of than an avg 4b defending range. I mean, he also still has to fold AA and TT and KK often enough when he has those. Just too big of a pot bc of pre and flop cbet. I mean it’s cool when he puke folds KK+, but when he doesn’t have the Ac, just too optimistic.

Pre sizing is fine, and think 4b > flat here OOP vs a reg that's capable.

Flop shouldn't really be betting, board smashes his range. Just x and decide vs his sizing, if it's rly small you can peel.

River literally makes zero sense, he has a lot of QQ here and if he's good he traps ott with some sets. You rep nothing. Even if you ever did play AA/KK like this I doubt most V's expect you to and could hero pretty light here.

Why do you like 240 1k deep?

830 w 560 behind... Do you have any turn shoves AP to that point? Do you have AQo here? QQ checks? Maybe just take a look at your whole range here and pick apart how you play nutted stuff.

Also I wanted a smaller 4b bc I think against his 3b-call range you don't need as much FE and do better keepinge more depth to work post. Thoughts?

Good stuff so far. FWIW QQ, AQs, and KQs are definitely in my 4b range, and Villain would never expect me to play AA/KK this way. I doubt he has the self control to just call JJ on the flop.

OTT, I would usually rip in AA-KK, JJ, and probably TT. With QQ its close, sometimes I would shove and sometimes check, maybe at a 1:2 frequency. I definitely have AQs and some KQs here too.

Feel like AQs and KQs need to rip turn as well now AP, with or without clubs. It's just real rough all around given how much thinner Vs folding range is when you have these hands, sizing choice, etc. It just seems like so many hands to make a 4b to 240 and then just bet and shove doesn't it? Perhaps because you're not that deep and you really are extracting value from a too wide 3b range from UTG1 and an even too-wider 4b defending range, then it's all ok to just blast away. Some sort of stomping strategy. It's just a bit troublesome that your perceived range as a nittier side TAG likely doesn't include AQ/KQ, so you either have QQ or you don't when you shove riv from his POV - and generally people don't fold 4b pots.

River - You could probably put together all the creative math necessary to argue for a check or a shove either way. In-game though, you're sitting there well aware that a check means you win the whole pot literally 0% of the time and can only chop with some AK float, so, I get the shove and pray at that point against a guy who is going to fold TT/KK/AA a bunch.

Did he puke fold?

So my question is whether we’d ever size this way on the flop for value? Like if you have AA and want value you’d be betting like 300 with the intent to jam the remaining 420 or so on a clean turn right? Make it awkward for TT or AQ to peel.

River is a terrible punt. He’s gonna have hands like QQ and AQ here that will snap this bet


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This was my original thought here. By the river you have almost polarized yourself to QQ or air. Not very much else makes sense.
I don’t think V would include K-Q or A-Q as possibilities very often here.

Also curious if V puke folded.

+1 to all of this, especially the bolded

Thanks all. V ultimately did puke fold. He threw up his hands and said he knew he should've bet the turn. He tanked a full 3-4 mins, talking about how bad the runout was. He stared at me for awhile with calling chips in one hand and his cards in the other, seeming pretty torn. He said that he didn't see me doing this with AK before ultimately folding. He didn't show, but I'm thinking he had AA, KK, TT, or possibly a sneaky AJs.

Part of my reasoning was that his turn check eliminates a lot of Q's from his range. I think V's AQ, KQ really has to bet the turn if those hands got that far. QJs or less seems unlikely given my larger 4b. So it seemed likely that QQ was the only hand he could have that snaps me off. Obv it sucks that I'm unblocking QQ, but given the stack sizes a shove seemed reasonable.

This was as marginal a spot as I've experienced in awhile, hence the post. Given me a lot to think about, thanks!

Good job not giving off a tell. That’s a big part of the river shove.

I wouldnt go $240 as i think that’s slightly too large but I do think it’s a little better than $175 which generates zero fold equity, and with AK no sooted taking down 20bb pre without seeing showdown is fine by me

$200-$220 would be my sizing

Pre is too big make it $190 to as played 1/3rd sizing OTF is fine $160 is better but I’m just nitpicking. Turn check is standard river is totally ******ed. Also your range for him pre is totally off he has TT+ AQss+ almost always.


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Honestly dont even know wtf this reg is doing otf/ott and what he’s folding otr. If he trapped otf with his sets (which he should)/called with QQ and checked turn, he has an easy call. Or if he has 1010.

KK/AA should just jam turn, if he somehow has J10 that’s not a fold either. Vast majority of his hands should be jamming turn or snapping this river. Who knows lmao.

He range should be AQs+, 1010+ as Pipe says given positions.

^i am really confused about V’s hand too. I think V made a very bad fold.

I may be giving V too much credit, but no matter how loosey he gets pre, here, he did 3b a perceived tighter UTG open and then call 240, called flop and deep tank folded what almost certainly was KKc. I really don’t think his line deserves mockery though... Call pre is super standard, and now otf he faces a bet on a board HE crushes but is stuck holding one of his worst hands in spot where he might normally get a boner (god I hate this phrase, I don’t want to picture some reg kid I already hate for no real reason w a hard on) while flatting most his range but can’t be thrilled about his actual hand. Turn only seems bad bc he has a fractional psb w an OP facing a check, but it’s not like KK has a ton to gain betting over checking. Again, one of his worst hands, so he checks back. The river now naturally means he loses a massive amount of the pot to hero - QQ improved, lolblocking AK, TT got there and isn’t bluffing bc V knows his perceived range is still QQ+... its an ugly spot and not a terrible fold. I mean, we hate hero’s spew line anyway, arguably, Villain played it better even though he lost the pot. Maybe.

No disrespect to H who made a ballsy shove, but V butchered this hand and you’re being polite as usual.