I originally posted this in the low stress thread, but it got buried. I'm really curious about this one - specifically what we're calling off with here, and how deep UTG has to be for this to be a fold, if we're calling off at these stack sizes.

2/5, 9 handed, $550 effective. Hero has never played with SB or UTG. This is sightly less than an hour into the session. Hero has played two hands - one 3 bet OTB v CO, and one raise from HJ, BTN calls and hero takes it down with a bet on a dry board. UTG appears to be a TAG but not a NIT, SB has not played one hand.

OTTH

Villain opens $25 UTG, hero 3 bets $85 LJ A K, SB flats, UTG 4 bets all in. Hero? What does your calling range look like here? What stack size does he have to have for us to fold AK, assuming it's a call here.

Against a real TAG, this is close. Against an average LP LLSNL V, it's probably a clear fold. EP opens and then 4-bet jams are just almost always AA/KK from the general population here. With a competent V, though... Seems like TT+/AK, maybe even some AQs.

It's complicated by SB, because his range to cold-call a 3-bet OOP should be all but non-existent, which makes it hard to estimate. Any reads on how he reacted to the 4-bet? I'm going to estimate his range at almost all medium PPs and guess that he will come along if you call, fold if you don't. I don't have a lot of confidence in that, but if so, getting a lower PPto come along seems like it helps us, as we pretty much have to hit to win most of the time anyway, and this makes the pot much nicer for us. It does take away all of our chops, though...

I'll estimate that three ways we have about 25-30% equity if it goes 3-way, and we'd be putting in 28% of the pot, so very close. If it goes HU, we probably have 40% equity (assuming he has all combos of AK), and would be paying 39%, so again very close.

The OMC in me thinks "why play with the variance here" in this roughly break-even situation?

Unless we have a read that our all-in Villain is capable of getting "out of line" here (after all, we have been playing with Villain an hour, did he suddenly decide to spew here?)...

AND unless we think he is capable and THIS is the time he is playing back at us...

Why not look for the proverbial better spot at the end of the rainbow (actually, better spots). Seems like we are flipping at best and crushed at worst, surely we can do better than that?

Waiting for better spots is a fallacy in cash games, assuming that we are properly rolled and can easily buy back in to cover. All else being equal, we can take the slightly +EV and the +++EV spots.

Of course, it's not clear whether this is a +EV spot or not, as it's all about range. If it is, though, we should generally take it, even if it is high variance.

wow thats a lot of fireworks. I bet this is probably AK v AK v KK. Ive called and shipped all in with AK, but i had a read on players range and how the game was playing. It can be at best a BE spot and at worst a dominated spot.

Agreed that I'm not using the mindset of looking to pick better spots...If a spot is mathematically break even or above, I'm gonna go for it.

I have no idea to know if this player is a real TAG or not, I'm simply using my reads to the best of my ability, going off ~1 hour of play. This player had not been 3 bet yet, and I don't remember him ever entering a pot without raising, except from BB.

I have no reads on how SB reacted to the 4 bet; he was stoic the entire time.

Garick's underlying point is well taken.

If I personally thought it was +EV (either based on a read or based on the known cards) then I would agree to play and let the poker gods sort it out. Sometimes we see the flow of a game dictate mixing it up, while the chips are still swirling around the table.

However, when it comes to "...If a spot is mathematically break even or above, I'm gonna go for it...."

I can respect that point of view.

That's what makes a horse race, a difference of opinion.

However, if I personally though it was break-even I take after GG, I guess.

"Going all in blind" heads-up is absolutely break-even, but for some reason it doesn't appeal to me.

Neither does calling in "pretty much break-even" spots.

If we thought there was any fold equity, then shoving (not calling) in pretty much break even spots, I could go for that. Calling a Villain's shove in the OP isn't that situation.

If we had a read, that's a different story, sometimes we can act on it, but both our Villains in the OP have to be FOS for this to make sense.

Neither seems to me to be +EV.

YMMV.

Theoretically you’re correct, but I think there is some merit in passing up spots that seem really close because we’re never 100% certain on the exact EV of a play. And if you think it’s barely +ev it could just as easily be barely -ev in reality.

Basically “picking better spots” is just giving yourself some room for error in your EV assessments.

If UTG really is a TAG, then I'm fine flatting the initial 2bet and playing the hand in position.

If V is just the average 2/5 player, sure 3b ok.

As played, trivial fold to the 4b.

I agree, but LOL this is considered heresy.

Why would we flat vs a range we're ahead of, risk going 4-5 ways to a flop, and have no idea where we're at? If this is a trivial fold, are you suggesting villain only has AA/KK, which we heavily block?

A TAG UTG's opening range is very strong. AKo is a good hand to continue with in position, and his is not a great range to 3b against.

Having position puts you at a great advantage against him. He's going to miss flops and may look to fold against pressure, which you can apply when the spot is right.

Many flops will be T-high or lower. He may Cbet and x/f OTT. Or he may delay Cbet, and the turn gets gross for him and you can raise is turn bet.

Its a trivial fold since V in this spot almost never has anything other then KK+.

So SB has not played a hand in an hour, decides to cold call from the SB a 3b.

So UTG who appears to be TAG opens UTG and then 4B AI.

Yup... trivial fold.

This is a fold for me vs. these players. SB could so easily be flatting AA/KK/AK, which seems to be a "thing" these days from tight players, and UTG probably at worst has QQ (and in reality probably has AA/KK). I just get out of the way.

Again, we're ahead of a TAG's UTG opening range. We almost never have the opportunity to just bet when UTG checks the flop, because this is almost always going at least 3 ways, and more times than not it's going 4 ways+ if we flat.

What's up with all of these troll accounts lately?

Maybe we disagree on UTG's "TAG" open range?

If he's closer to 5% we're not ahead.

If he's at or past 10%, we're ahead.

What range are you putting him on after he opens UTG?

88+, all suited broadways (except KTs, QTs, and JTs), and AQo+. That's being conservative, too. As a TAG, that's my go to range in the average 2/5 game. We are ahead.

We're even ahead of a 5% UTG opening range, but that's an extremely nitty range, and villain is presumably TAG, not a nit.

Originally Posted by DickParker
If Java, the queen of calling stations says fold. then fold

I'm used to men being intimidated by me and lashing out, but thanks for calling out the troll It's flattering that someone with fewer than 10 posts trolled me!

BTW, Dick, I'm never calling here. It's shove or fold.

5% isn't a TAG, it's a nit.

Exactly. Funny enough, we're still ahead of a 5% opening range.

IMO... this is a solid losing opening range for being UTG at full ring live 2/5NL.

IMO... a winning TAG will have a max 10% opening range UTG, and likely much smaller.

Sure, if you are position-unaware.

I'm probably wrong, but a 5% range has a 53% equity advantage to AKo.

Lol,nice one

Are you serious rn? The range I said was my base range is 7.1%, which is less than 10%.

And AK is a 50.5-49.5 favorite vs 5%.

Regardless, flatting pre just seems out of the question.

This is what I'm using for a 5% range:

OK, your range looks like 7.1%... 52% equity advantage does go to AKo.

I was a bit hasty, since I was overestimating how much taking KTs, QTs and JTs improves things.

Your range probably is fine for UTG (except there's no way I'm opening TT- from UTG).

#nitlyfe!

I still think flatting is best tho.

That's not even 5%. That's just a super nit opening range, which is presumably not what we're dealing with.