I just call river, wp. Don't think you're getting any more value with a raise, how many worse Ax are utg limping? Maybe ace-rag suited I guess.

Oh man i really disagree with the majority here. It is important to note whether or not we hold the A which op does not tell us but i will operate under the assumption that we do not have it. I am raise/folding the turn for value. Could UTG+1 have a legitmate hand here? yes of course...he lead into a multiway pot on a very wet board but his sizing is a tell. Players at this stake are terrified of the bad beat so if he had a hand that was strong he would want to "protect" it. Obv his line of check to the raiser and when it checks through leads turn is indicative of strength but i really think his sizing is the most important factor. Raise/folding turn for value will get called by all draws and a lot of weaker hands that have some equity. Not to mention players at this stake get sticky with marginal holdings and basically no one at this stake is bet/3betting a draw in this spot so if you do get raised you can confidently fold.

Once called on the turn, if he checks this river, i am betting again for value.

Because it sounds like he's trying to get draws to fold, when we want draws to call. Blasting worse hands out of the pot is not how you win money.

I see your point but you're essentially not "making the same" because the chances you're called with worse are different. The river decision needs to be based on the following questions:

1. How often does UTG+1 have us beat?
-Very, very rarely. After he bets the turn and leads the river <1/5 pot, the same size he made it on the turn, he almost never has 2pair+. I think we'll see a single pair making a blocking/"I don't know what to do" bet a ton of the time.

2. How often will he call with worse?
-Almost always. Despite the fact he probably only has one pair, if a live player's small bet gets min raised on the river he's not going to fold. His curiosity/attachment to the pot/great price he's getting will make him call.

3. How often does btn have us beat?
-Very slim chance. He's probably raising the turn of he has 2 pair+. There's also the slim chance the 7 gives him two pair on the river.

4. If we just call how likely is the btn to call with worse?
-Probably the most debatable question. While the other tendency assumptions I've made I think are true for the large majority of live rec. players, a calling range here is definitely player dependant. What I will assume is UTG+1 is going to call a min raise with worse way more often than btn will over call with worse.

Basically, my point is there really isn't much risk because we're owning ourselves so rarely. The high probability UTG+1 calls with worse is so valuable that it outweighs this risk were beat and also outweighs the chance btn overcalls with worse.

i think that being willing to raise his river for value in a spot like his is good, however it is probably so thin that most players would wind up making far more -EV plays here than +EV plays.

Yeah raising this river would be incredibly thin - especially after seeing Villain play more. He'd NEVER be calling the rest of his stack off w/ just a pair of aces, so I think we got max value, save maybe raising the turn (he may have called and c/f the river).

Yeah I don't think I could raise here on that board. Ax two paired is likely by someone. I'm calling and just hoping it goes into showdown.

This is it. This is everything. Just passive calling while getting odds is good enough on this hand, especially with the button there whose J10 is all up in his range.

For some reasoning I was already ranging button with flush draw , straight draw, 10j qk... But we have zero info on him up to this point (turn)lol