I don't even know what the reads are on the villain. He almost always had it for like 3 straight hours asian guy who I thought was FOB at first but his english didn't have much of an accent. He was anywhere between late 20s and late 30s.

Effective stacks are around 1500 or so.

Straddle from the CO. BB calls 10. Villain in MP makes it 20. I make it 90 with AK with the Ks. Folds to MP who calls (i have position).

Flop: JT7sss. Villain checks. I check.
Turn: J. Villain bets 105. I call (not sure about this right here but think it's okay)
River: T. Villain bets 400. Hero?

Thanks in advance for the replies and sorry for the ****ty looking HH.

Easy fold. Guy always has it + PSB OTR = let's not try to bluffcatch here.

Well played now fold

If he bluffed you oh well

That's a fold. No regrets about it. I would have folded on the turn even before calling his $105 because we are not drawing to 12 outs on a paired board. I don't even consider the possibility even If I would have a Royal draw because that one it's a pipe dream 1:400 years (LOL). Now, I'm serious, I mean it. I'm not drawing here. That's me. I don't know about you guys. But that's my play.

I would have folded OTT......probably......my "soul reading radar" is GNORS for parts......definitely OTR.

You would've been a lot better off betting the $105 yourself on the flop instead of checking flop and calling $105 on the turn. At least you have some FE that way and you have more options if you hit the turn or river.

I think a flop c-bet of 1/2 PSB or so would be appropriate. You have some FE and if you're behind have a lot of turns cards that put you ahead. AP fold turn if you're going to fold river. The river actually helped you. You just caught 8's or 9's. AP fold the river.

I probably would have c-bet flop for about $100. You often win the pot right away against a pair lower than TT (other than 77 of course) or AK/AQ. May be able to get him off of a random T as well. Since you're in position, betting flop may get V to check turn to you, in which case I'm checking back unimproved, so you're $100 flop bet can buy you a free river card.

As played I fold to the turn bet. Board pairing is terrible for us, we can't make the nuts any more and it becomes less like that an A or K is an out for us. Bad RIO at this point.

Definitely fold to the river bet. You have no reason to believe that V is bluffing here 1/3 of the time. Even if he is, you now chop with all Ax so even if you're right in those cases you on get half the pot.

Bet flop, fold turn. AP fold river.

checking the flop is fine with the 2nd nfd on a wet monotone board. He minraised then called a big 3bet (sizing could have been a little lower) so he likely has a big pp

fold turn

APFR

What are we beating here 99 and under? At best we'd be calling for a split. Agree with C-betting/ semi bluffing the flop for around $100.

Interesting. My decision on the river was actually between calling and shoving -.-

I think his range is a lot narrower than mine and I think he's repping almost nothing on the river. If I had to give him a range it would be:

JJ-TT-QQ-KQ-AK-AQ-99-88.

Am I way off?

Fold turn as played. Even rivers which hit could be dirty and cost another solid bet if you make straight or flush or even an ace. I like checking flop. Free card is great here. I think fold equity argument on flop is pretty marginal at best. If they do indeed have a weak holding like an underpair or QT (less likely), you can fire a bullet on a lot of turns with position. Your outs plus blanks like 3c or 5h - whatever. Also I think bloating a pot here is not the best spot.. great drawing hand but still not nuts. So more likely to lose a big pot than win big if you hit, secondary to some Bayesian sort of analysis


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PSB on river is polarized. It's either the nutz or air (lower pair etc...) 80% of the time nuts, 10% air and 10% it's an A trying to push you off of a chop. Villain has tons of Js and Ts in his range due to the min-raise pre.

I could go either way on the flop with check back or bet, but fold turn unless you have a stone cold read on your villain. You bet big preflop and he is telling you he can beat a big overpair.

What hands that have a J or T in them are calling 70 more preflop?

If he can have KQ and AQ, why can't he have AJ, AT, KJ, etc.? If he can have 99 or 88, he can have 77 too.

Not sure if serious with why he can have KQs/AQ over hands like AJ/AT/KJ but as for why he can never have 77, it's because he never bets 400 on the river with 77. 77 ALWAYS checks on that river.

Fair enough he probably never has 77, but how come he can't have other broadways combos? AJ or AT are pretty much equivalent to KQ.

Cause it's a pretty decent sized 3bet pre and I don't think he min-raises a straddle after 1 caller with AJ/AT for the sake of ???pot building??? and then calling a huge 3bet with it.

Basically my thinking in the hand is as follows (copy pasted from another post i made regarding this hand):

So there was consideration about maybe getting him off a T but I wasn't sure that he has many/any Ts in his range and if they do, at least half of them have a J in them.

I don't think anyone bets 77 on this river because they are almost never getting called by worse unless they happen to run into a competent hand-reading opponent who ends up discounting 77 like I did.

I think that Ax hands can bet river hoping to get me to fold 77,QQ-AA and chops.

I guess my question is: if i discount all of the boats from his range and give him the range that I assigned earlier of Quads, overpair or a hand i'm tying/beating, should I be shoving or calling?

I guess I just think KQs plays better than AJ/AT because of the opportunity for open ended draws (preflop at least).

Also, given the way the hand played out on the flop and the turn, I think AT doesn't bet the turn unless he has AsTx and I don't think that's a 3bet calling hand pre for villain. AJ maybe but again, it'd have to be way more likely to be AJ suited than AJo and then he wouldn't have the flush draw and I don't know if he bets that turn 100% of the time for 1/2 pot. Clearly if he has a straight draw and K high, there's no way he's winning the pot so he has to be bluffing, which is why I think that's a way more likely hand. Also permutations and such make KQ more likely than AJ

Hard to say. OOP I usually fold almost all unpaired broadway cards other than AK to a 3-bet, but people call wider than they should I would just be careful of ranging him to narrowly here because of what you think his calling range pre should be. Would not surprise me to see him show up with a random J here.

total fold, best case scenario is a chop but even that is below 20% possibility i think

Why can't he have 77? 77 makes perfect sense

You have position. I don't mind the call on the turn at all. Problem is, your hand is pretty face up. Either an overpair with no spade, AK or AQ with a spade in your hand, so it opens the door for him to bluff at this pot. His bet on the river is pretty bluffy/nutted.

There shouldn't be many Js or Ts in his range, so that would suggest a bluff. But his play seems pretty solid, so that rules out bluffs. I could justify shoving over a spewmonkey, but against solid players who pick their spots to bluff carefully, you have to have a rock solid table read. Against unknowns, the best table reads are if V gets really quiet. or lets off some kind of smirk. but otherwise, just going on hunches is a damn hard way to play poker. or a good way to burn off 300 BB.

can you please elaborate on this? I don't agree but would love a differing opinion