2/5 10-handed game.Button straddle on.Villian is a semi tight regular(mid-aged Asian lady).She is a bit loose preflop but plays OK post. Hero probably is a solid tag in this room.Hero just sat down a few hands ago and raised to $45 with Ad Kh over button sttaddle. Only villain calls in CO.
Effect stack is $1k.
Flop($90): Td 5c 4d. Hero bets $55, villain calls.
Turn($$200): 5d hero bets $125, villian calls again.
River($450): 7s. Hero?
No doubt hero has range advantage here.Do we give up or bet again? What's the optimal bet sizing if we really wanna pull the trigger.

Just snap shoving here unless you're super deep and have way more than PSB left. Don't give her a reason to call, and if you had value you'd want to go for the max as well.

Postflop seems fine. I like the sizings overall, pre, flop, and turn.

dislike the turn bet, esp with that relatively weakish sizing we are unlikely to fold out better often enough

either checking or bombing ott ($200ish) seem better. usually checking

Semi-tight regular older Asian woman? You are toast. She is calling a normal bet because she's here, and she's calling a shove because it looks bluffy and she is here.

Shove might work, but I'd give up.

62.5% ott seems like a fine sizing.

If anything it forces her to defend wider than say 75-100% and we have a more profitable bluff shove otr.

I mean you could 1.2x overbet turn and shove rivers, but I think our range doesnt really want to be doing that. This is actually a pretty bad card for our range, and it’s better to split our range as 2/3 bet ott or check, not 2/3 bet & check & 1x-1.2x psb ott. Even if thatwere optimal it’s hard to construct those ranges and we’d rather just simplify

Didnt see we were 1k effective. Ugh it sucks cuz I believe if we jammed all-in for $350 100bb deep vs betting $350 200bb deep, We have more FE with the all-in even tho it’s the same sizing bc it’s psychologically harder for people (especially tight players and being a woman, on average and stereotyping) to call

I think AP giving up is fine. What does her cold-call range look like? Depending on that, i may consider betting $330 or so.

I feel checking the turn is the play here. Villian described prolly isn’t folding river with a 10x hand. If I bet river, I’m going 275 to a jam. I’m leaning toward just giving up here bc villian called 2 streets already. I feel villian has range advantage on board described and the river card is not a great card to bluff at. Maybe if it was a j or q we could find a river bluff but I feel just giving up river is correct here.

I feel ripping river or betting extremely big is correct if you are trying to get a fold though in spot like this.

I'd for sure give up. You're only repping an overpair and 3 combos of TT, but you repped that OTT and villain called, so you're probably not going to get a fold unless you overbet the river, and you're only going to get a T to fold. Villain might be sitting there with a flush or full house and is just waiting for you to try for an overbet, and who knows, she might just call with a T too especially if she knows triple-barreling with 2 overcards is in your arsenal.

Why cant we have 1010, 55, 44, 54s, 75s, Axdd, Kxdd, Qxdd, Jxdd, SCs(dd)...? Plus we have 24 combos of overpairs ott. We can have AKdd/AQdd, she shouldn't as often since she'll 3b at least a good amount.

We clearly have the range advantage here. Not saying that we should press it here. It really depends on what her cold-call range is here or what H thinks it is. If she can call hands like KTo/QTo/JTo/ATo/etc at a moderate to high frequency (H says she's tight, but how tight) I think we just need to barrel and hope we get it through. If she's a nit who cold-calls very few offsuit hands I like giving up. Also, the reads are a bit confusing. OP says she's a semi-tight regular but is a bit loose preflop. So which one is it?

Also, I don't think most overpairs, especially our black overpairs, should be 3-barreling here... so we are pretty polarized when we bet this river. AdAx can be a three barrel but Im checking AdAx at a mixed frequency, mostly checking JxJd/QxQd, and KdKx probably mixed as well depending on V's tendencies.

All in all, 200bb deep I think it's close and I can go either way, but 100bb deep I'm just ripping river pretty fast unless her cold-call range is extremely narrow (PP/suited broadways/strong SCs) and has us crushed on this river.

Because I'm stupid. Yea we can definitely have 2 diamonds and a set here.

I know the straddle was on but I don't see this V calling 45 pre without a strong hand.

I could see this being JJ-QQ even.

I probably check this flop and turn.

As played I would continue to rep my overpair. $385 feels right to me. She will flip over JJ and fold it.

200BB deep. I bet $300 on the river.She tanked a long time before calling with black Jacks.So my sizing is probably not good.She would definitely fold to a shove.

I'd follow through here. $300 isn't that bad, she almost folded But I would have made it larger like $400 or something, make it look like we are trying to hit a home run with flush or better.