Villain plays a lot of hands preflop, mostly for limps but she will raise her stronger hands. She raises a lot of flops and turns, occassionally with draws and occassionally with top pair hands, almost always with two pair+ hands. If she thinks she has the best hand she raises, even if her hand is not super strong. Her preflop range definitely includes K5s and K9o, but probably not K5o. She thinks about poker and tries to be good, but plays too many hands and stations too much

Hero has been playing fairly tight, especially compared to usual. Hero and villain have history, where hero squeezed pre someone elses open, villain flatted QQ, and folded it face up on a JTx board, only to be shown heroes 57. Has seen hero bluff a lot, for all sorts of sizes.

Two people limp to me on the button, I raise AK to $30, bb + limpers call

Flop: K95 ($120)
Checks to me, I bet $85, folds to villain who raises to $185 with $650 back, I call.

Turn: 8 ($485)
Villain bets $260 with $390 back, I...

I think I'm committed here. Don't really love it but folding seems way too exploitable.

Is the pot not $90 on the flop? If so you bet pot. He may view this as a take it down type bet and be stealing or betting a worse K. He may have flopped a set. WA/WB imo. I’m either calling down or folding turn. Shoving doesn’t accomplish anything.

(I think pot is $120 on the flop-2 limpers, BB, Hero)

OP, What was your reasoning for the size of your flop bet?

This is a great flop for you, no draws. Bet about 1/2 pot ($60) here. In general you don't want to play big pots with 1 pair hands multihanded, even w/AK on K high flop (unless against horrible players). Your bet sizing contributed to your dilemma on the turn.

I don't think villain is betting this big cause they think you're bluffing. If that was the case they'ld just check call flop.

Unfortunately now your decision comes down to just guessing.......

Flop bet sizing comes down to me having two bet sizes on this board, 1/3rd and 2/3rd pot, and AK has dominating equity in a way that makes me want to bet larger. Villain is not a great player, and I want to build a pot versus her.

If your read is correct, then I'm flatting turn and stacking off on any river card except a Q.

I dislike the flop sizing, I'm betting 30-50% pot on this flop type. No draws available and it hits our range really hard.

As played, i'd think really hard about folding on the flop. Even if V is raising KT+ 'for information', that's still not a great range to be against when you add 99/55/K9/K5s too it.

Me too. SPR will be 1.32 effective (her stack...I assume u cover) if we call the flop raise. I can't really think of a turn card that we hate either so your decision to play for stax is right now and I generally hate playing for 160 blinds on a dry board with one pair, especially against a V whom you describe could have Top two or Top/bottom in her range.