Bet turn and fold to a check raise. It's still a 2 street hand. Same as calling a river bet.

If you check back turn, and river brings a scare card, it may go check check and you lose 1 street of value vs KJ, QJ, TT, etc etc.

You are therefore risking giving up one street of value vs those hands and trading it for potentially a street of value by inducing a bluff or light value bet on the river. Don't think it's the most profitable move.

It looks like QQ-AA should be a call for sure but AJ may be a fold. If AJ is a fold then the turn bet sizing might be a mistake. I want to bet large on turn with a range of about half bluffs with outs (E.G. 10-9s) and half value hands THAT CAN CALL a turn check/raise+river shove.

QQ-AA, JJ, Q10s, and 88 are all hands Id raise pre and bet flop with and that's 28 combos. How's the following look for a $100 turn bet bluff range? These are all hands I'd raise pre and bet flop with.

910, 910, 910, 87, 87, 87, AK, AQ, A10, KQ, K10, 77, 1010, 55.

I'd be more polar than that. Check back pretty much all the pairs (I wouldn't much bet flop with the 8x- anyway) and some of the spade draws, and bet more dry KQ and KTs type stuff. It's a good spot to barrel blank runouts, especially with hands that unblock spades and Tx/7x.

EDIT: Whoops, dry KQ is the super gutshot. Def don't want to fold out Qx nor be raised off our hand with those. Would make our bluffs more dry AK/AQ type stuff then.

Thing is villain will have a range advantage here... but will he realize that he does lol?

If he does then we can expect a lot more bluffs in this spot like x-raise bluffs because he can have more value hands. But i think most LLSNL don't even know what "range advantage" means. If this guy is a really good player or online kid who is good i think xing here has a little bit more consideration.

The reason why betting the flop + turn with TPTK is still profitable @ LLSNL is because nobody over-folds TP to a turn barrel or even mid pair sometimes (we aren't playing online).
What would happen if people started folding the turn at a high frequency w/TP or all their middling hands + draws? We would obviously make less money by betting the turn (duh). But lets be realistic ppl make horrible calling mistakes that are so -EV at LLSNL there are whales for miles here.

And vs. some villain's you can 3-barrel TPTK IP OTR if it's a spot where you are never going to fire 2 barrels and villain loves to hero + doesn't fold to 3 barrels as well as some other factors...

But sometimes i like having a xing range OTT very dependent tho. Or it may be more +EV to check instead of bet/fold here vs. some guys. Etc.