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2/5 - Aces on monotone flop 2/5 - Aces on monotone flop
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09-20-2018 , 11:30 AM
#1
pocketzeroes
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In this hand, I'm fairly new to the table - only about an orbit or two in. I sat down in the 8 seat after seats 8 and 9 opened up, and the villain in seat 5 moves to seat 9 -- players often seem to try to get to my left because I open a lot, can be a bit bluffy, and am often creating action and bigger pots (but I'm not crazy)... Anyway, I took seat 5 as I thought it was better, but not really concerned about this villain. Then I won a hand or two, so have the villains in this hand slighty covered.

UTG+1 (~$1250): Middle aged white guy. He seems fairly fishy, but I don't know his ranges yet.
Hero at UTG+2 (covers at about $1350)
BTN (villain): Early 30s white guy that doesn't seem happy in the game right now.

Preflop: Hero dealt AA, both black.
UTG+1 opens to $35, which seemed big. Normally I'd just make it like $105-$120 here, but I went small - $85 - hoping this guy does something crazy. Villain on BTN calls after thinking for a few seconds. UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 9h7h3h
UTG+1 checks, hero bets $95 (sizing opinions? I usually use small sizings on monotone flops, and in 3bet pots), BTN does a quick check of his cards and calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: 9h7h3h 5x
Hero bets $210. BTN calls

River: 9h7h3h 5x Kh
Hero tanks for a bit on the 4-flush card, and decides to check (any reason to bet here?). BTN bets $420 leaving himself about $450 behind. Hero?
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09-20-2018 , 01:11 PM
#2
megamen70
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Easy fold nh but don’t sweetener 3bet pre would you do this with AQs or JJ? Just use a standard sizing. He’s not gonna go crazy because you sized down a bit he just gonna call mostly the same hands for 20 bucks less
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09-20-2018 , 01:18 PM
#3
wait
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Shove river
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09-20-2018 , 01:39 PM
#4
stlows
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
UTG+1 (~$1250): Middle aged white guy. He seems fairly fishy, but I don't know his ranges yet.

UTG+1 opens to $35, which seemed big. Normally I'd just make it like $105-$120 here, but I went small - $85 - hoping this guy does something crazy.
Why did you think he was gonna do something crazy?

As you said, him opening big and looks fishy makes me want to 3b even higher, since he looks like he love his hand.

I 3b to 105-110 minimum

Rest is fine, i like small bet on flop in 3b pot also so you can do it with more hands

x/f river is fine
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09-20-2018 , 01:49 PM
#5
pocketzeroes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stlows
Why did you think he was gonna do something crazy?

I 3b to 105-110.

rest is fine, x/f river is fine
Meh, I didn't really think it's likely. I said I hoped, not that I thought it would happen -- but I felt like the biggest chance I had of getting stacks in preflop was a smaller size followed by a couple cold callers and a 4bet -- or somebody seeing JJ or QQ and feeling like they need to re-raise (and the UTG+1 guy was one of those -- "I didn't want to see a flop", "I didn't want to see another card, the spades scared me" kind of guy; those are the type most likely to end up shipping stacks). Likely? No. But it sure feels good when that happens.

Either way, yeah $105+ is probably best here.

I hope this thread doesn't get derailed into a discussion about preflop. I just don't think it's that huge of a difference -- more action with the smaller sizing at least partially compensates for what is missed at a larger sizing. It's a bit different with hands like JJ-QQ or AK which suck much more to play against a cold caller in position.
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09-20-2018 , 01:53 PM
#6
pocketzeroes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wait
Shove river
Why?
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09-20-2018 , 03:00 PM
#7
Minatorr
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3b pre way bigger.

Flop/turn okay but pretty bad spots.

River probably just x/f. His range here is mostly PP with a heart or random Ah like AhQx or AhJx, and some trapped nut flushes if he didnt fold pre. I don't think I want to try to blast a guy who's unhappy in the game off QhQx, JhJx. I think against most players though, jamming here should be ok as an exploit bc they will just massively overfold here. With Kh out there, they don't really have the nut flush that often unless it's exactly AhQx or flopped nut flush.
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09-20-2018 , 03:16 PM
#8
andrew4433
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You need to call $420 into about $1285 on the river here so you need to be good about 33% of the time to call it off. I don't think most people will be making a bluff on a 4 heart board 1 out of every 3 times.

Plus, If you look at his 3b calling range, its mostly made up of pocket pairs and combos like AKs, AK, AQ and more depending on your reads. The key is though, you have both black aces, which means that all of those AX combos are more heavily weighted towards having the ace of hearts. To me this is x/f river
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09-20-2018 , 03:35 PM
#9
pocketzeroes
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One other piece of information - the way villain called my turn bet was quick in a way that gave off an "I don't believe you, I'm calling you down" vibe. I didn't get a sense of, "I'm trying to decide if I should raise you" (either as a bluff or value) at all on either flop or turn... I think this plays into villain's ranges a bit, though this can sometimes be the flopped nuts slow-playing...
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09-20-2018 , 03:38 PM
#10
megamen70
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quick check of cards is almost always an unsuited hand checking to see if he has a heart. I don't think your average opponent is good enough to reverse tell this so he has a heart here like always super easy snap fold. As to your comment on turn bet he could easily have pocket pair with heart that gets there.
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09-20-2018 , 03:51 PM
#11
pocketzeroes
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What range do we think villain has hero on on flop, turn, and river?
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09-20-2018 , 04:01 PM
#12
megamen70
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You said Button is not happy in the game. But is he tight, or loose, and does he cold 4bet squeeze ever?

Edit: realized he cold called a 3bet pre
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09-20-2018 , 04:06 PM
#13
wait
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If he has nut flush it's a really terrible line especially the river sizing.
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09-21-2018 , 03:15 AM
#14
pocketzeroes
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I thought the river decision was more interesting here than most seem to think... Results:

Spoiler:

I tanked for a bit here to work out villain’s range. I decided to go with my turn read that he mostly has pocket pairs - so i’m giving him TT-QQ, some 88. Sure, he can have some AK, AQ hands with Ah or even flopped flushes, but I think he would have at least thought about raising at some point.

The Kh in particular affects things quite a lot, as opposed, to say the 4h. For one, if he did happen to be calling down with TT or 88 hoping I have AK, now he’s behind with 50% of those hands. For another thing, I can no longer have AK with Kh in my range. Furthermore, I could see this villain calling down without a pair with an Ah, or even with the Kh, but not many unpaired hands with the Qh.

Finally, we have to consider what hands villain value bets here. IMO, it’s mostly going to be Qh (QQ) and Ah (AKo, maybe some AQo). Jh is possible, but he has to be at least a little worried I got there with a hand like Qh or that I’m trapping with Ah. I think any hearts T or lower, as well as hands like sets, villain will be happy to just take a showdown, knowing that for the most part the Kh and my river check makes me not have so many flushes in my range - but on the off chance I’m trapping, better to check.

I decided that villain just doesn’t have all that many hands he wants to value bet in his range, but suddenly will feel compelled to bluff with a hand like 88, TT, JJ, QQ without a heart (again, recognizing that they all now lose to AK). Furthermore, his bet sizing strikes me as odd - is he betting that with the nuts? With the Qh? It seemed a bit unlikely to put in half his stack for a under half pot bet in either case.

Getting over 3 to 1 on a call, I only need to be good here less than 25% of the time. And I think villain’s a bit tilted right now.

I called.

Villain flipped over 22, both black, and I scooped.
Last edited by pocketzeroes; 09-21-2018 at 03:23 AM.
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09-21-2018 , 03:23 AM
#15
pocketzeroes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrew4433
You need to call $420 into about $1285 on the river here so you need to be good about 33% of the time to call it off. I don't think most people will be making a bluff on a 4 heart board 1 out of every 3 times.

Plus, If you look at his 3b calling range, its mostly made up of pocket pairs and combos like AKs, AK, AQ and more depending on your reads. The key is though, you have both black aces, which means that all of those AX combos are more heavily weighted towards having the ace of hearts. To me this is x/f river
I only need to be good here less than 25% of the time.. It’s 420/(1285+420).
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09-21-2018 , 08:19 AM
#16
andrew4433
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^ Nah, its 420 into 865+420 aka 420 into 1285.
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09-21-2018 , 08:28 AM
#17
HawkesDave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrew4433
^ Nah, its 420 into 865+420 aka 420 into 1285.
The pot was $865 going into the river. Once V bets $420, Hero is laying $420 to win $1705, and only needs to be good 24.6% of the time.

If you were referring to a bluff, then V is betting $420 to win $1285, and his bluff only needs to work 33% of the time for it to be profitable.

You need to correct your math fundamentals.
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09-21-2018 , 09:01 AM
#18
andrew4433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
The pot was $865 going into the river. Once V bets $420, Hero is laying $420 to win $1705, and only needs to be good 24.6% of the time.

If you were referring to a bluff, then V is betting $420 to win $1285, and his bluff only needs to work 33% of the time for it to be profitable.

You need to correct your math fundamentals.
okay I see what I was doing wrong. we need to call 420 into 1285 which is 420:1285 which as a percentage is 420/1705.
Got it, thanks for calling that out.
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09-21-2018 , 09:09 AM
#19
HawkesDave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrew4433
okay I see what I was doing wrong. we need to call 420 into 1285 which is 420:1285 which as a percentage is 420/1705.
Got it, thanks for calling that out.
It's all good, but you may have also been mixing up the % of time for this to work as a bluff for the % of time it's profitable as a call. That's a common error people make. If you're bluffing, you only count your bet in the denominator, but if you're calling, you add the bettor's as well as your own.
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09-21-2018 , 01:10 PM
#20
wait
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Duh **** line but call seems alot worse than shove for the times he does have a garbage heart. Maybe not betting at the same frequency but still gonna be turning alot of small hearts into a bluff.
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09-21-2018 , 01:17 PM
#21
pocketzeroes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wait
Duh **** line but call seems alot worse than shove for the times he does have a garbage heart. Maybe not betting at the same frequency but still gonna be turning alot of small hearts into a bluff.
If he's calling me down with a garbage heart (or a hand like black 22, for that matter) and decides to bet it, I think he's not so likely to fold *any* heart to a river shove of like 430 more or whatever it was after betting 420 and calling 85+95+210 on prior streets. Anyway, I tend to think in spots like this villains are usually polarized to big hearts or no hearts.
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09-22-2018 , 03:58 PM
#22
kimoser22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
In this hand, I'm fairly new to the table - only about an orbit or two in. I sat down in the 8 seat after seats 8 and 9 opened up, and the villain in seat 5 moves to seat 9 -- players often seem to try to get to my left because I open a lot, can be a bit bluffy, and am often creating action and bigger pots (but I'm not crazy)... Anyway, I took seat 5 as I thought it was better, but not really concerned about this villain. Then I won a hand or two, so have the villains in this hand slighty covered.

UTG+1 (~$1250): Middle aged white guy. He seems fairly fishy, but I don't know his ranges yet.
Hero at UTG+2 (covers at about $1350)
BTN (villain): Early 30s white guy that doesn't seem happy in the game right now.

Preflop: Hero dealt AA, both black.
UTG+1 opens to $35, which seemed big. Normally I'd just make it like $105-$120 here, but I went small - $85 - hoping this guy does something crazy. Villain on BTN calls after thinking for a few seconds. UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 9h7h3h
UTG+1 checks, hero bets $95 (sizing opinions? I usually use small sizings on monotone flops, and in 3bet pots), BTN does a quick check of his cards and calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: 9h7h3h 5x
Hero bets $210. BTN calls

River: 9h7h3h 5x Kh
Hero tanks for a bit on the 4-flush card, and decides to check (any reason to bet here?). BTN bets $420 leaving himself about $450 behind. Hero?
Grunch

Pre-flop is fine could go bigger, exploitatively with just AA,KK (like 125) here against recs who should have strong ranges, but 85 is fine as well, I would bet more on the flop with black AA (200 ish) with AhA I would bet small and bet small with my AhX hands 3-way, turn, I keep betting half-pot IMO, River I just c/f it would be pretty ambitious for him to float twice without a heart or a hand that beats you (set of 99, etc.)
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09-22-2018 , 04:09 PM
#23
kimoser22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
If he's calling me down with a garbage heart (or a hand like black 22, for that matter) and decides to bet it, I think he's not so likely to fold *any* heart to a river shove of like 430 more or whatever it was after betting 420 and calling 85+95+210 on prior streets. Anyway, I tend to think in spots like this villains are usually polarized to big hearts or no hearts.
Eh? I prob wouldn't shove river, but prob not that bad as wait and minator have said even this V would fold alot of his middling hearts to a shove...Its always nice to catch Vs in terrible bluffs but had you seen him do anything like this before? I mean ppl do weird stuff in live poker but I don't think you will be good 25% against the population by calling down, IMHO
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09-22-2018 , 04:21 PM
#24
pocketzeroes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kimoser22
Eh? I prob wouldn't shove river, but prob not that bad as wait and minator have said even this V would fold alot of his middling hearts to a shove...Its always nice to catch Vs in terrible bluffs but had you seen him do anything like this before? I mean ppl do weird stuff in live poker but I don't think you will be good 25% against the population by calling down, IMHO
The problem with this logic is is implies villain is betting a ton of middling and small hearts here. How often do you see somebody check back the Th or Jh, even Qh in a spot like this? Quite often in my experience. When people get to the river with a low heart, they are usually glad to just get to showdown - and that’s for good reason, bigger hearts normally call a bet, and no heart hands normally fold.

The important considerations in this hand, to me, are that villain’s range was mostly PPs based on action and reads, and also that the Kh provides huge incentive for villain to bluff (because 1, plenty of my hands don’t have a heart, and 2, it may have given me a single pair, if villain thought my 3bet consists of a lot of AK)
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