Villain is 20 something white guy. Had been playing with him for about an hour. Hadn't seen any significant showdowns from him, but he seemed semi laggy. He was involved in quite a few pots and he had about 1200 in front of him at a 600 max game. I bought in for six and had bled down to 425. I was getting ready to reload when i pick up AhQh in co.

Villain open limps in middle position, i raise to 30 in the cut off with AQh. Folds around to villain who calls.

Flop $60
8d9d4h

Villain checks.
Hero bets $45
Villain raises to $125.
Hero?

I feel like it is very unlikely he has a made hand in this spot.
Villains range is mostly big draws, air, and occasionally a 9 or 8, but unlikely, and maybe A4dd or 45dd.


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I think this is one of the worst flops to cbet vs a limp/caller.

...

you realize you are behind 45 and A4 of diamonds right?

Just check fold....

Why?

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It's not an ideal flop to c bet but it's hardly the worst. I have two overs with a BDFD and I likely have the best hand. Why should I give him a free chance to improve?

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We're not deep enough here to do anything but fold like a cheap lawn chair. We have A high + BDFD, and calling would basically commit us to this pot.

Of course, but those are worst case scenarios. Im ahead of most of his range here imo.

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So go against my read?

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i don't mind the c-bet, but i am folding to the c/r pretty quickly.

Snap fold.

I would be shocked if you were actually ahead of his range. Even if you include naked flush draws in his range, you are dominated by his entire value range, including the combo draws. You are doing nothing more than bluff catching with a hand that doesn't even dominate his bluffing range.

A c bet on the flop is fine, but anything except a fold here is terrible.

+5

Of course im dominated by his value range. I have ace high. But his range is so heavily weighted toward draws and air here. He may have 8,9 or 44, but my read was that he is not that strong. and I have fold equity against some of his one pair hands.

Anyway, I jammed the flop and he tank called with the nut flush draw and spiked it. Oh well.

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Against a range of entirely sets, 89s, and NFD/combo draws you are a 25/75 dog. Described V isn't c/r flop with one pair. After Vs c/r he has put in almost half of effective stacks, doubt he folds anything even if it's a pair since he will find a way to put you on a draw.

Again, I found it extremely unlikely he has one pair. So he has either 44, 89 suited, or a draw or air. There are 3 combos of 89 suited, and 2 combos of 44. I can't even count the number of draw and air hands he can have so how am I a 25% dog against that range?

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Because you are drastically underestimating the number of times you are gonna get check raised by total air, which is a minuscule percent.