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2/5: AA vs Flop Raise 2/5: AA vs Flop Raise

05-02-2017 , 04:42 AM
Villain 1 (MP, $1000) has won several medium to large sized pots without having to go to showdown so no solid reads about his game. Appears to be playing a straightforward ABC style of poker for the most part. The only hand I recall that he played was when he limped in from UTG, UTG+1 raises to $25, a couple of callers, villain reraises to $150, sees a flop three way with UTG+1 and BTN. C-bets $300 on an 8-high rainbow board, takes it down and shows QQ.
Villain 2 (BTN, $800) is a whale who plays every hand preflop and peels most flops with his entire range. I am UTG ($900) and limp in with AA (no diamonds). A couple of more limps, MP raises to $25, BTN calls, I raise to $120 and the three of us see a flop: KJ7 I bet $220, MP raises to $500, BTN folds, I...?
2/5: AA vs Flop Raise Quote
05-02-2017 , 05:04 AM
It's obviously jam or fold. I think it's a jam, but let's go through it:

If you jam, you'll be laying 560 to win 1360 and you need to be good 29% of the time. Worst case, he has a set and you have only 10% equity.

Best case, he'll do this with AK and you have 46% equity. He needs to have at least 3 combos of AK to get you above 29% equity: i.e. 50% chance he plays AK this way.

If you throw in some fudge factor (some r/f with QQ, some possible FD in his preflop range, whatever) it gets better.

Jam and reload.
2/5: AA vs Flop Raise Quote
05-02-2017 , 09:57 AM
SPR of 2.4 I'm not folding AA here just gii imo.
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05-02-2017 , 09:54 PM
Stuff it in.

I can't imagine folding in this spot.
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05-02-2017 , 11:11 PM
as every1 said... jam. can't fold here. our hand is too strong.
2/5: AA vs Flop Raise Quote

      
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