I think my though process was correct here, but seeing as I've been running extremely weird deviation with AA for the past 3-4 months, I figured I'd post. Sorry is this is 'lol standard'. I'm always trying to play 1-2 street poker with AA, but I wonder if I'm just being stupid.

UTG- $2500, opens for $20. 50-ish black man in hoodie and shades. Very quiet.
MP- $1900, call. Older white guy with a Jesus hat. Some history...he's pretty bad, but Jesus must love him.
CO - $200, calls Pure ATC fish. No real history.
BTN - $700, calls. Older TAG. Decent hand reader
Hero SB - $950, AA raised to $100.

UTG folds.
MP tanks for a bit an calls. I immediately range him to TT-JJ, as I fully expect him to 3! pre with QQ/KK.

So my thought here is that I'm going to bet $200 on pretty much any low card flop, or 1/2 pot and evaluate his action if the flop hits his range. I'm looking to play 2 street poker.

Pot is $260

Flop comes 724r, I bet $200. V shakes his head a bit and calls. In my mind, this re-affirms his range with a weak-ish overpair.

Pot is $660.

I'm shoving every turn except an A, thinking I could still be representing KK to induce a bluff from his range, whereas if I lead out, he likely folds. Even if he checks behind, it doesn't change anything because the SPR allows for an easy AI on the river. Should the turn hit his range, I've still got odds to shove since I can't narrow his range to sets.

Are my thoughts off base here? Is this guy set-mining with 77? Or am I missing something?

I'm not set mining without better odds than provided here but then I'm not 'pretty bad' by live standards. If he flats 77 here, he's paying us off with worse than toppest overpair IMO and if he's x/f every time he doesn't hit a set, we are printing money. So I'm not super worried about it.

Line looks good to me IMO.

I think it depends on what hero's 3 perceived betting range looks like. At the 1-2 level, a 3 bet means Queens, Kings or Aces well over half the time. Villain would be risking 80 to stack hero for a $1050 pot. Vs a very narrow 3 bet range I don't think set mining is that bad here.

Meh...I think my hand is face up tbh. I didn't give a lot of info on table dynamics, but SB squeeze on 4 players would be suicide w/o a premium because of MP and CO.

If this makes your hand face up (your opponents felt that way), wouldn't it be a great idea to make this exact 3bet/cbet with junk from time to time?

I mean, if he calls your bet and you start worrying that he has 77, then you'd be printing money making this play as a bluff and just quitting the bluff if the cbet got called.

Aside from that thought, well played.

Face up to someone who can hand read. I assume neither MP nor CO would be able to realize your hand is face up, because if they could then I don't think you would have used the phrase "SB squeeze on 4 players would be suicide w/o a premium because of MP and CO."

If he pays off with TT/JJ does it matter if he has a set sometimes?

The head shake actually makes me think set more than overpair. Do you really inadvertently shake your head while thinking/calling? More likely its acting imo.

Pre seems a little small, flop bet seems too large

Would consider checking some turns if villain is going to lay down a lot of his hands to a 2nd barrel, we can target 88-jj for another bet on the river

With $87 in the pot, I'd go $125-130 pre, especially with MP and CO in the fray.

As played, the SPR ratio allows a shove OTT or OTR. I might check turn, hoping to create mistake on the opponent's part. No issues with shoving, nevertheless.

$120 pre, smaller otf, shaking head tell is a reliable tell of huge strength. Like 10% of the time it is genuine but the other 90% it's the nizzles.

I wouldn't read too much into the shaking head tell based on description of villain, could easily be genuine. Given that you have history with him, you should know better than us on what to make of it so I'm trusting your read that it's not likely a reverse tell.

$100-125 is fine pre. And I like the bet sizing on the flop to set up a jam vs. unskilled opponent.

Nothing wrong with shoving turn, but I might be tempted to check turn and shove river some of the time, especially if a Q/K/A comes as those make it more difficult for him to call off.

However, it's really hard to beat a player that Jesus loves... he's running +EV lifetime for sure b/c he goes to church every Sunday... so gear up for that river suckout or occasional 77.

Yeah, I know this villain, and I've never seen him pull a reverse tell. If anything, he's telling me he was set mining and could easily fold to any number of broadways OTF, but neither of those happened and he's making a crying call.

Turn J

Does this change hero's intended actions?

Good point..under certain circumstances. But my feeling is that my hand should be face up *here*, based on how any competent regs would perceive my play after 2-3 hours. Especially OOP. But competent applies to neither of the potential Vs at this table...I'm actually expecting to get called pf and on my c-bet by a huge portion of either's range. Not a lot of value in bluffing stations, and that's what I'm up against here.

If you think your hand is basically face up with the way you played it I'm not sure why your convinced MP would have automatically 3! with QQ or KK pre. Did you mean face up to other players and not to MP?

...

You have a PSB left. Only 3 new combos of JJ beat you, so little has changed. I'm probably checking with the intention of calling any bet and leading the river all in. Better chance to induce from lower pp's than get one to call again with a likely over on board.

given the entirety of your post op I would make it $200 to go pre.

yes he has 77

your hand is also pretty much faceup and villain doesn't have JJ-KK like ever

on the turn you blow him off like EVERYTHING besides TT and sets and he might even fold TT. unless there is a street poker dynamic this hand needs a lot of work.

I would adapt the system for playing AA deep to something like

set mine it from the SB. otherwise call up to 2 streets of betting automatically.

I guarantee this shows a much bigger profit than what op is currently doing.

get-your-money-back-type guarantee?

no

Preflop I would make it bigger prolly 125 cuz you are going to be out of position in the hand . I think your flop bet is too large personally cuz he still has random hands like AK that will fold to 200 but call another 125 or 100 .

I completely disagree with "2 street " poker as it makes it much easier on your opponent

I wouldn´t take your guarantee than...

Shakes head and calls means you're beat... jj-aa V does not call 20 PF he raises, so high PP is out of question... low PP makes alot more sense... is he calling with ak or aq 100 pf yea maybe but would never call a flop bet with air... obv has small PP that he hit his set with.. easy game


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