2/5 with $10 button straddle, action is on the blinds first.

I am BB with black AA and open $40. Two callers, one from HJ (V1) and from button (V2).

V1 ($1k effective) - This is literally his first hand at the table after sitting down. I've seen him a few times, he's a local but not a reg. Middle aged white guy, no real reads.
V2 ($1k effective) - aggressive young white guy, seems to understand game well but have seen him barrel off with bluffs in marginal situations.

Flop ($122): Jd10d10h
I check, V1 bets $100, V2 folds, I call.

Turn ($322): Jd10d10h2h
I check, V2 bets $250.

At this point he has about $600 behind. I'm obviously up against what is either a 10 or a strong draw (nut diamonds or straight/flush draw). Tricky part is that while the draws are likely diamond draws, I don't know whether he has a gutshot, open ended, etc. He also could possibly have some heart draws like KQhh or 98hh.

So the question is:
(a) call and plan to call non-diamond rivers?
(b) call and plan to fold to a river bet regardless of card?
(c) shove
(d) fold

I am not instathrilled with the thought of felting 1K aka 200 BB in a single raised pot with a one pair hand, wich may very well gonna be the reality if we call the turn bet. Closing the action on the button here preflop villain have pretty much all the 10x combos, like J10 off,10-9 off as well as better ones as K10 suited and A10 suited.

On the other hand if villain is capable of running big bluffs/semibluffs, his betting tendencies in multiway pots and/or how he usually sizes his bets when he has draws or nutted hands is extremely valuable information when were trying to navigate in this hand OOP. Is he capable of barrelling off for his whole stack and empty the clip on the river if he bricks out his draw for example or does he check back and give up if he doesent hit? If he is that kind of player that doesent empty the clip i like a turnshove better, because it forces him to put it all in the middle right here on the turn-instead of him seing the rivercard before he decides to commit his stack or not.

However, if he is aggro enough to run a huge 3 street bluff- i like a turncall if we figure his range is wide enough,and then check- calling almost every river that doesent bring in the flushdraw.

Call turn but its hard to give a letter answer bc river card timing and sizing are all pretty important.

You have the nut bluffcatching hand here.

V2 folded and then pulled his cards out of the muck to bet the turn.

You have a typo somewhere.

Yeah V1 is the one betting turn, my bad. V1 is HJ.

I don’t think there are going to be a lot of sizing issues on the river - I expect him to only shove or check, not bet anything in between. He’s been potting it the whole way and has about 80% pot behind on river. So I think we either have to decide on the turn whether we are calling down or not, and identify the types of cards we would fold river on.

Against an unknown who you're not feeling to be a pro/reg I think you've shown a lot of passive/weakness (by design, and played properly I might add) in the hand I think a random average 2/5 player could be very easily betting Jx here. I'd probably call it off and c/f any river. I don't think your average player is triple barreling anything but a T or a made river draw.

Likely shipping turn... Might seem spewy/only get called by better, but OOP, I don't think you get any more value from your hand on the river. If you opt to call now, on boards like these, bluffy villains will tend to be autobalanced/checking back weaker hands than yours a lot - so you'll mostly be indifferent b/w calling and folding.

I don't like folding. His sizing makes me think he most likely has a jack or a draw.

I guess it all comes down to reads. The more draws he has, the more you want to ship now. Same thing with Jx if you don't think you can extract any more value on the river. But as you put more Tx in his range, you start wanting to call now, x/f rivers, and with a range heavily weighted towards Tx, x/f now... And of course, if you think he has a lot of air that will just triple barrel in this spot, x/c now, x/c most rivers.

Also, never underestimate your villain's ability to press the call button. Some would say, "never ship turn, you're turning aces into a bluff" - but the reality is you will be called by worse (Jx and draws) more often than most people tend to think.

Oh yeah, raise more pre.

I dislike pre.

I would strongly consider a LRR-line if the table isn`t super passive.

as played: Call turn and c/decide OTR. Small blocking bet could be fun.

Can't limp pre.
Can't block in spots where your opponent has all the nut combos.

Without any info here, facing these bets, I would fold turn. It hurts without a h/d, and it's an exploit with zero info, but I'm willing to accept making a folding mistake in a really tough spot absolutely readless.

This. Folding turn

Of course we can bet like $150 OTR and never get bluffed. That keeps the Pot smaller and we get a little value from check behinds with SD Value. Seems lol_worthy, but this **** works in live poker.

Have you ever played with a Mississippi-Straddle? Being in the blinds and first to act on a reasonable active table is quite a great Spot to LRR with AA, because opening AA here kills a lot of the value that AA has, because we are OOP and may go to the flop 3ways+ (at least in most live games).

I'm in the D (fold) camp.

Certainly could have AJ, discounting most draws, maybe the monsters (e.g. KdQd) but they are few. Most players also check back their draws. There are more TX combos that I'd give credit for.

Smells like V has a 10

Why not lead flop?

Turn is marginal, but understand that if you call on turn you have to call off on non diamond rivers

I misread the op... Thought it was the aggressive young white guy who barrels off in spots... If this is just some MAWG rando, probably just fold turn.

Fold. Results?

I don’t limp any hands in these games unless we are super deep (800-1000 blinds). In this particular situation most of the table is about 100 big blinds deep with the straddle and I’m going to get fat value far more than I’m going to get put in rough spots.

I think leading the flop is fine and I would do that sometimes but I felt like the button was aggressive enough to stab at it and I was trying to avoid a situation where I would get all the money in on this hand. Of course V1’s bets put me there anyway.

I think you are thinking too much like a 2p2r here and not like a live player, horrible sizing (esp otr) is what live poker is all about. It is not uncommon to see a $300 bet here otr...yes leaving half his stack behind.

And even so, stuffs for stacks otr are always the nuts. People do not stuff stacks on missed draws (they bet $300). Also, when he stuffs, by pot odds alone, he has to have more bluffs for us to call. Since he has to 1) have more bluffs and 2) never bluffs for stacks, you'd have an easy fold.

I definitely would not fold turn. I hate saying stuff like this for live poker but if we fold this we are folding everything and thats not great when we take a check flop line (which was good). Its ok to legit have one bluff catch combo here, and this is it. There isnt a better hand. Black KK and red AA are fine folds. Black AA is not.

You have 2 nut outs that also give villain the nut straight/flush sometimes with his KQ/flush combos, and you have two T outs that stack villains Jx.

Most importantly, villain still has Jx in his range. People go nuts when you check flop and they want to protect their hand. Thats one of the several reasons why we check flop.

Shoving turn accomplishes nothing. Stop being afraid of cards.

While this may be true, considerations should include Hero blocking AJ and V betting 80% pot OTF with a player left to act.

Once he bets turn, AJ (6 combos) is in his range, however there are many more combos of TX, as well as a few nutty draws that imho getting higher weighting.

When I thought V was aggro young kid, I was giving him lots of Jx combos, a bunch of draws, and actually weighted down the Tx combos due to larger sizing.... When I realized that player was a MAWG rando, I gave him mostly Tx, and very rarely Jx (but maybe QQ). Until they prove otherwise, when they're betting this big for multiple streets on a board like this, they always have it.

My best guess is that he could have QQ or KK here but basically never has Jx. I think he might make the flop bet with Jx but when he makes the turn bet I think he either believes he has the best hand or he has a big draw and doesn't want to have to hit the river.

I just never give a MAWG a draw when he's bombing away - not until they prove that they do this... Rule of thumb is they bet a lot when there's not a ton of hands that beat them, and they're scared of somebody catching up. But they're pretty bad at reading hands through multiple streets. Even though you probably almost never have Tx after raising pre and check-calling flop then checking turn, these guys are going to be scared of you having one if they don't.

+1, words of wisdom. If villain havent proven to you if he is capable of bombing close to pot like this without nutted hands- then i woudnt stackoff 200 BB with one pair to find out.

This is a pattern that i see over and over again,no matter where i play. Most people are scared money/underrolled/few buyins from busto= they just arent looking to stackoff without a very strong hand. And vast majority have huge betsizingtells. When they bet big aka a relative big bet to the stakes youre playing, or fires close to potsized bets/giving signs that they want to stackoff they just have what you suspect they have: nutted hands.

Players that are capable of bluffraising with draws and/or run a multistreet bluff with a draw is easy to spot due to the overall aggrofactor in their game. They have like a big neon sign over their head if you pay attention.