Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver
I don’t think there are going to be a lot of sizing issues on the river - I expect him to only shove or check, not bet anything in between. He’s been potting it the whole way and has about 80%
I think you are thinking too much like a 2p2r here and not like a live player, horrible sizing (esp otr) is what live poker is all about. It is not uncommon to see a $300 bet here otr...yes leaving half his stack behind.
And even so, stuffs for stacks otr are always the nuts. People do not stuff stacks on missed draws (they bet $300). Also, when he stuffs, by pot odds alone, he has to have more bluffs for us to call. Since he has to 1) have more bluffs and 2) never bluffs for stacks, you'd have an easy fold.
I definitely would not fold turn. I hate saying stuff like this for live poker but if we fold this we are folding everything and thats not great when we take a check flop line (which was good). Its ok to legit have one bluff catch combo here, and this is it. There isnt a better hand. Black KK and red AA are fine folds. Black AA is not.
You have 2 nut outs that also give villain the nut straight/flush sometimes with his KQ/flush combos, and you have two T outs that stack villains Jx.
Most importantly, villain still has Jx in his range. People go nuts when you check flop and they want to protect their hand. Thats one of the several reasons why we check flop.
Shoving turn accomplishes nothing. Stop being afraid of cards.