Table Conditions: There are 3 good players at the table i can pick out, a bunch of abc stations, and one whale who's been pulling hundreds out of his pocket every few orbits - ended up stuck over 5k while I was playing. Action sort of revolving around him because he's ultra sticky with everything, but he isn't playing a ridiculous amount of hands, he's just really bad. This hand did not involve him.

Villain(1600): One of the good players, 40s white male, winning regular, understands position, ranging, turning hands into bluffs, etc... not playing a specific style really, as we're all just trying to get involved with the whale and i've only been sitting a few hours. A little loose preflop since he's deep and running good, but i've seen him get aggressive in marginal spots post flop which may be a leak.

Hero(700): Villain probably views hero as tight and relatively abc, i've been playing snug due to being card dead and accepting the inability to fold out the stations, my 3bets have mainly come from raising obvious iso's against the whale and have been taken down preflop every time.

Hero opens AA utg for 25, villain is only caller in CO.

Flop(50): Q84

Hero cbets 40, villain calls. I know he knows I'm c-betting this type of board with my whole range, so I bet a higher % of the pot because AK makes up a huge part of my perceived range and he's calling all his Qx hands on this flop. His calling range also probably includes gutshot floats and a few random floats expecting to steal if turn is checked to him.

Turn(130): Q847

Hero checks, villain bets 70, hero calls. I elect to check because I think he folds all his Q10/QJ, his gutterballs and floats, and only calls KQ(50/50) and AQ (which he won't 3bet preflop with an utg open from me), but he'll bet them all if checked to. Should this be a c/r for value against backdoor draws he may have picked up, or are there enough Q's in his range that make just calling more profitable because of increased odds of getting another street of value on the river?

River(270): Q84710

Hero bets 120, villain folds. Hoping to get crying calls from all Q's, but not sure if I should have c/c hoping he barrels his junk? I assumed he'd check back almost all of his Q's after my turn call.

How is my thought process? Am I missing value? Am I under repping my hand too much?

Looks to me as he just took your turn check as weakness and was trying to take it down on turn so I don't see any missed value as he would have just folded to a c/r.

I would have c/c river giving him another chance to try and steal it from you. When you c/c turn and then come out firing on river it looks pretty strong to me.

40 is probably a little on the high side for your c bet as we aren't really trying to play for stacks on this board. 30 is probably a little better on a non-drawing board.

I don't love the turn check but I see your logic for doing so.

Once you check the turn I'd much rather check/call the river. You committed to a bluff catching line. Then you woke up in a spot where you really don't have all that many bluffs.

this

A bet, bet, bet line against a player you perceive as good is overrepping your one pair hand. I like the way you played it. If you are always check calling your good one pair hand here on the river you can almost never bluff people out of pots because they will always see you check calling with your value hands.

A good player will not bet if checked to on this river because after your turn action he knows you are calling.

These river bet/fold lines for value are what I am currently working on. I used to be too much of a check behind / check call showdown monkey.

Leading is probably too strong as stated before after check calling in a relatively dry board.The way played i would probably check the river as well giving him the chance to try and barrel me off my hand.
Probably though i would bet the turn(~80) and river (~140) to get value from a Queen.

b/b/b. do you need a set to go for three streets?

If you think he is capable of calling a C/R with top of range (AQ), then I'd pop the turn. His sizing looks weak and if he is betting entire range (incl GS), there are more than a few scare cards on the river.

I think once you c/c the turn, check the river as well, hoping he stabs.

+1

FLOP: b25-35 on flop; because board is so dry there is nothing to protect against, so you are betting simply for value against Qx. The less you bet, the liter you encourage him to float.

TURN: Bet 1/2-2/3 pot. This is a straight value bet. First off, I don't expect the Vil to enter the pot HU particularly lite when presumably the "whale" has already folded in front of him pre flop (especially given his perceived image of you). So backdoor clubs hardly is a concern when the Q is on the flop. Do you really believe this Vil is peeling you're 4/5pot cbet with T9cc, JTcc, 56s? So there is very little to protect against. You are betting here with the intention of extracting value from Qx, and possibly weaker depending on sizing.

As played, raising after he bets when we check to him would be grossly overplaying our hand. We are only getting called by better: 87, possibly 44; and getting 3b by sets+.

River: If you had bet flop+turn, the river is another value bet 1/2-2/3 pot.

As played, I also prefer betting 1/2-2/3 pot. Because we bet 4/5pot on flop and got a call, I would skew his range towards value hands. Because Qx checks behind too often and your hand is NOT strong enough for a k/r, betting for value is the most +ev line. If you had bet smaller on the flop AND the Vil was capable of floating lite, I would prefer you k/c river after k/c'ing turn.

Miscellaneous: You said Vil is competent and positionally aware. His perceived image of you is that you are nitty. You are playing 140bb effective. How deep is the "whale" at this point? We can assume if the "whale" is deep, the Vil will be less inclined to run a move on a nitty player. Why would he go after you when he is playing deep against the "whale?" Why risk the stack? I also assume (from relative positions and based on the fact you mention you have 3b a couple of iso-raises) that the Vil has already seen the "whale" fold before he calls your UTG raise in a scenario that is likely to go HU. I think given these circumstances we can skew the Vil's range towards strong value hands, like AQ-QJs, PPs. It is possible he just peels with TT or JJ and folds on the turn, but I think the majority of the time the Vil specifically has a strong Qx here. If you size it right, you can extract 3 streets from Qx in a situation where the Vil is incredibly unlikely to spazz out against you. By extension of this logic, this is a b/f on every street. Moreover, if PPs are a good part of his range, then when we check turn to him and he bets, we LOSE information. Had we bet and he raised, we could have confidently folded. When we k/c turn and then subsequently lead river for value and he raises, we don't know if he is raising because he flopped a set and we denied him the delayed turn raise, or if he is overplaying his hand because we have under-represented ours. As played (k/c turn + lead river), I would fold if he raised my river donk bet.

In short, I think you lose value with bet->k/c->bet line. Your hand looks like what it pretty much is AQ+.

Seems fine. I don't think he folded a Q here unless you think he folds QJ to such a small river bet.

If you're just looking for ideas, I'd try bet smaller OTF, bet the turn and c/c the river with this run out.

Although by default I’m likely barreling this turn, I don’t mind the c/c line given reads on Villain. It makes perfect sense to c/c if he is floating; essentially it’s his time to take the pot. Given his turn bet size though it seems unlikely we’ll get any more value from him on the river. We would probably expect a bigger turn bet with his value hands.

I think c/c river is better than leading unless he believes we’re capable of bluffing a missed draw OTR. We’ll get value from some Qx if so, but more often than not we’re getting folds.

Checking the river gives him a bit of room to keep barreling air or weak hands, although if he’s at least a little attentive as you suggest he’ll check back some Qx and lead bigger with 2p+. With your read that Villain can get a bit frisky in marginal spots post flop though this is definitely a good spot to check.

Pretty wp