Villain talks about poker at the table, tries to read hands, seems like a break even/slightly +ev regular. Limps occassionally. Not many reads

Hero recently raised J5s in co, got 3 callers and bet a 678r board near pot, everyone folded and after villain said he folded "good cards", hero said "Don't fold good cards" and showed.

Loose idiot opens to $25 in EP, villain calls, folds to hero in SB who makes it $90 with AA, loose idiot tanks so long he gets the clock called on him and folds, villain calls.

We are $1000 effective

Villain initial calling range: 223 combos, QQ:0.5,JJ,TT,99,88,77,66,55,44,33,22,AKo,AQ,AJ,ATs ,A9s,A8s,A7s,A6s,A5s,A4s,A3s,A2s,KQ,KJs,KTs,QJs,QT s,JTs,J9s,T9s,T8s,98s,97s,87s,86s,76s,75s,65s,54s
Villains 3bet calling range: 84 combos, QQ:0.5,JJ,TT,99,88,77,66:0.5,55:0.5,44:0.5,33:0.5, 22:0.5,AQ,AJs,ATs,KQs,QJs,JTs



Flop: 875 ($205)
Hero checks, villain checks

Flop is a bet versus less thinking opponents, this is a wa/wb situation and I expect him to bet his overpairs occassionally to protect against my AK, plus by checking I strengthen my checking range. I'd bet QQ here always and KK here usually. Not trying to get stacks in vs this opponent on this board.

Turn: 4 ($205)
Now we're behind 66 and 44 as well, continue the checking plan as I think versus two checks he's going to fire his overpairs and maybe some air occassionally

River: T ($205)
I assume his range is really weak here, so I make a very small value bet of $75 hoping to get a curiosity call. Villain makes it $200 while saying "What? You got QQ?" kind of to himself, but very clearly audible, in a bewildered tone.

River seems like a pretty obvious fold with the speech. Without the speech, is anyone thinking of calling?

His range is polarised to TT or air IMO. This coupled with how under repped your hand is and how much your line screams AK to him leans toward a call.

Id bet flop. I dont know that he is as narrow as you think so id get a value bet in. River bet/call seems reasonable as played. Agree that its TT or air.

You have over analysed this hand almost to the point of butchery.....
Flop is an obvious bet here, you keep commenting about villans potential overpairs which are a far bigger proportion of his range than sets, yet you don't try and get any value from them.... If I am villan in a 3! Pot with 99-jj I am going to be checking back a bunch here anyway..... Controlling incase you have the big pair, and allowing you to bluff your unimproved ak, easy folds to a that turns up.....
OK so regardless flop Check isn't horrible, but you now have to bet the turn for all of the above reasons.... You can't be checking aa here twice, because your just inviting any thinking villan to bet you off this.
River: we are now so underrepresented we almost have to call, we just shouldn't be here with AA almost ever.... Yeah maybe he has a rivered set, maybe he had 88 and slow played it, although o doubt he checks back the turn....

Your big error here is looking g at the range as absolutes.... 88 is a tiny proportion of his range, where as 99 is much larger proportion, the flop cards remove a load of potential combos of hands villan can have..... You are missing a load of value by making sets a much larger proportion of his range than they actually are, and from what you have suggested this villan is unlikely to bluff at this pot.....that said,on the river he can easily think jj-qq is good and be raising those hands....you shouldn't be in this spot though.....

Flop is clear bet..

As played call expect to be beat

This is a well played hand, checking flop is good

River I'm probably calling

I like flop and turn. Def betting JJ-KK as they are vulnerable to overcards, nice to have overpairs in our x/c range here.

River i would just x/c. If he had a pair/bluff-catcher he probably would have bet at some point putting you on whiffed overcards, so i dont think there's too much value to be had unless he has like A10s/K10s which might bet anyway. I'd just give him rope to bluff random overcards/weaker value hands

Raise more pre

flop check is fine but I dislike checking the turn as well

River is a weird spot, maybe fold because of the speech, otoh villain checking twice with 2p+ seems pretty weird, feels like he should have something like t8 or j9 for this line to make sense, even a6 if in range

Also feel like there is potential for villain to overplay 98/t9/99 in this spot, which would make it closer to a call