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2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river 2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river

10-13-2013 , 03:42 PM
Hero is playing very aggressive and running hot. After losing my first buy in I rebuy for 1000 and ran it up 1800 at the start of the hand. Table is fairly tough with lots of regs and three fish.
Villain 1 is very tough. He knows I 3 bet position raisers light anytime I enter the pot. Hes four bet shoved on the button with 66 and puts tons of pressure on when im weak or marginal. However villain has over played hands and called three PSB when ive been strong many times before.

Hero 1875. UTG AAcs
Villain 1600 CO

Hero raises to $35 UTG, HJ calls, villain calls on BTN
Pot: 105
Flop: 10s9s2s

Hero bets 70, HJ folds, BTN calls

Pot:245
Turn: Ks

Hero bets 180, villain contemplates for a few moments and flats

Pot: 505
River: 10c

Hero bets 300, Villain shoves for 1300

Hero?

Last edited by Superdonkey4; 10-13-2013 at 03:56 PM.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 04:02 PM
Easy b/f against this villain.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 04:19 PM
Only problem I'm having is I'm certain he's 3 betting 99 1010 KK pre flop against me as I open frequently. 22 910 K10s are only logical full houses and i believe he would three bet flop with 22 and maybe even 910. He knows I'm more comfortable betting at pots than making big calls. This villain is bluffing this board more than the average player and Im starting to rethink my fold.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 04:26 PM
don't level yourself. river is a b/f.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 04:31 PM
I don't blame you for folding or planning to bet/fold, but I can't think of a reasonable hand in his value range, and I'd call.

He's going to raise KK pre-flop and maybe on the flop, too. He's going to raise sets 22, 99, and TT on the flop. He's going to raise two-pair T9 on the flop.

And your read that he puts pressure on you when you're marginal... well here he's turning your nut flush into a bluff catcher. He could certainly be capable of bluffing in this spot.

He can certainly call flop with some piece of the board/draw + a spade. A hand like 8s7x isn't crazy. Plenty of other examples. He hit a non-nut flush on the turn and decided to call and play a river. Then you make a very valuish river bet, he knows he's behind, but he hit his nut-best bluffing card and he bluff shoves.

I think his flop play is the key street. Basically any hand that's beating you now really has to raise this flop. And on the turn, those same hands will fold some % of the time to another barrel on a 4-flush board. This line would be a pretty weird way to play a hand like 22 or 99, I'll tell you that.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 04:40 PM
KT is really his only value hand. Maybe that's enough to justify a fold.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
KT is really his only value hand. Maybe that's enough to justify a fold.
Exactly. K10 does make sense. He flatted the flop like he would in that spot with top pair no draw and took so long
on the turn with top two and four to flush. Hes three betting preflop KK TT 99 and Im certain he three bets 22 on the flop. K10 with a small chance he just flatted on he flop with top two. I'm starting think he had KQo of JQo with one spade and realized His only chane to win was a shove
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 05:35 PM
FOLD.

Look at it this way, you opened utg and barrelled all streets on a 4 spade board into a player who has been calling you down before. Dont worry about how few combos he can likely have in this spot, worry about the fact that he is never bluffing in this spot. Levelling yourself in these spots is a seriously expensive leak to have, even if he shows you a bluff once you fold somehow, just know that your fold is saving you money.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 07:11 PM
Agree with the other posters about folding. As aggressive as this guy is, the play seems like suicide unless he thinks you'll make a big fold, and it's extremely expensive if it doesn't work. Also the fact that he's called on two streets means he would have to be turning some legitimate hand into a bluff, which I doubt he'd be comfortable doing for his entire stack. And how do you know he doesn't have a pocket pair here? You raised UTG and got a caller, so for him to call even with T-T seems standard.

If the guy is super aggressive and likes to try to move you off hands, I think checking the turn might also be a good play.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d_saxton
Agree with the other posters about folding. As aggressive as this guy is, the play seems like suicide unless he thinks you'll make a big fold, and it's extremely expensive if it doesn't work. Also the fact that he's called on two streets means he would have to be turning some legitimate hand into a bluff, which I doubt he'd be comfortable doing for his entire stack. And how do you know he doesn't have a pocket pair here? You raised UTG and got a caller, so for him to call even with T-T seems standard.

If the guy is super aggressive and likes to try to move you off hands, I think checking the turn might also be a good play.
I agree with you that calling with 1010 is standard in this spot in most situations but villain has played hundreds of hours with me and knows I can be and dont like folding to 3bets. he has three bet very wide in similar spots. He also likes playing big pots so I expect him three bet flopped sets on this board. I can't check the turn against this guy with nuts. I see lots of value on the turn and most rivers against this opponent..... And there is always that chance he played his hand different than he normally would.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 07:43 PM
I'd have a tough time folding this given history and dynamics. I mean the guy is capable of big plays... 4 bet shoving 66 pre, putting a ton of pressure on opponents and over plays hands. It sounds like he knows that you can't call with anything but a boat. I'd call vs this particular villain if you're well rolled.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 11:14 PM
Flip a coin. We can't help you. He seems capable of bluffing here, but we can't tell you if he's likely to. In a vacuum, it's a reasonable board to try it with. In game, I'd ask myself if he's the type to enjoy running people over, or more running them down, if that makes sense.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 11:28 PM
I said this was an easy b/f. Here's why -- what does this guy's bluff range look like here?

If he has a bluff range, I assume you think it's a total float that he turns into a massive bluff on the river against you. Otherwise, you're assuming he's turning QJ no flush, Q/J flush, or a set into a massive bluff...unlikely.

I'm not saying this guy's not capable...you seem to think he is. And if he is, call this hand and then I'd avoid this guy in the future. Why tangle with a capable player when it sounds like you two just are having a dick swinging contest most of the time? There's more profit elsewhere.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-13-2013 , 11:39 PM
Villain would be insane to turn a lower flush into a bluff here given description of Hero, and it seems really unlikely Villain ever gets here with worse. Besides all the As hands in Hero's range, there's also KK/TT/99 (possibly KT/T9/22/QJs if he raises light from EP?). Unless Hero reliably folds As in this spot, the river shove is megaspew without a FH+. Seems like a clear b/f for Hero on the river.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-14-2013 , 01:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay S
Villain would be insane to turn a lower flush into a bluff here given description of Hero, and it seems really unlikely Villain ever gets here with worse. Besides all the As hands in Hero's range, there's also KK/TT/99 (possibly KT/T9/22/QJs if he raises light from EP?). Unless Hero reliably folds As in this spot, the river shove is megaspew without a FH+. Seems like a clear b/f for Hero on the river.
It'd be hard for hero to have a full house given the turn play. In any case, despite how much people talk about how this or that all-in bluff is "theoretically" a good play because the opponent can't call, in the real world, how often do even good aggressive players actually make these plays? I'm not convinced very often, but I could be wrong.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-14-2013 , 01:25 AM
Quote:
It'd be hard for hero to have a full house given the turn play.
Yes. My mistake.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-14-2013 , 02:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocSkillz
I said this was an easy b/f. Here's why -- what does this guy's bluff range look like here?

If he has a bluff range, I assume you think it's a total float that he turns into a massive bluff on the river against you. Otherwise, you're assuming he's turning QJ no flush, Q/J flush, or a set into a massive bluff...unlikely.


I'm not saying this guy's not capable...you seem to think he is. And if he is, call this hand and then I'd avoid this guy in the future. Why tangle with a capable player when it sounds like you two just are having a dick swinging contest most of the time? There's more profit elsewhere.
This. What hand is villain calling on the turn that he turning into a bluff on the river? If he has the K high or Q high flush, he's calling, not shoving. And I disagree that villain raises 2 pair or sets on this flop. He's in position, he can flat them profitably and he has redraws if the flush hits.

B/f river, he's not good enough to be bluffing here.
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote
10-14-2013 , 01:44 PM
Agree^. It's hard to think of hands in his range he's turning into a bluff. Also pretty unlikely he's shoving worse for value.

Fold
2/5 AA huge flop, nut turn, busted river Quote

      
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