2/5, 7 handed, $600 effective. SB is the main villain in the hand; I haven't played with him in weeks and only have about 5 hours with him, but he's played pretty loose passive pre and pretty LAG post in the time I have played with him. Hero has an aggressive, probably TAG image to villain.

OTTH

Hero opens A A $25 +2, HJ, SB, and BB call.

Flop ($100): J 7 2. Villain leads $45, BB calls, hero raises $175, only SB calls.

Turn ($495): K. Villain checks. Hero?

Well played.

Do whatever now: You have 80% Pot left. Check / bet small (target Jx) and all in are all ok.

Given your description of Villain, it sounds like he has AJ/KJ/QJ/JT. Not wanting to lose him, I would bet smaller on the turn. Not knowing stack sizes and green, or black chips (or how often he puts those in) makes a bet size harder. However, I would probably go $200-$275.

I said $600 effective in OP, but I don't see what green and black chips have to do with anything

I'll assume no green/black then. At $600, I would go with the $200 planning on a river shove if no paint hits.

As to the green/black chips. Some people spent them easy, some hoard them and some use them to intimidate. LAG's tend toward using them to intimidate and don't like calling with them.

So you say he's a LAG post, which makes me want to just call his donkbet. There's no real draws so lets underrep here so he goes nuts. As played I cant imagine felting someone holding Jx so now I'm really worried about KJ/sets. I would check back and call whatever he does on the river in the unlikely event he has 89s or something and goes for a hail mary punt. If he checks river then I bet $100 to get a crying call.

Also I wouldnt consider 5 hours of play time to mean much. I dont even begin trying to make reads until 5 hours in a single session. People can change and skew their image so much due to a variety of circumstances. Maybe the last time you played him his gf broke up with him, or he was drunk, or thinking about cheeseburgers on the dollar menu. It really takes a long time to get a firm grasp on someone's playstyle. Consider reading even less into your own perception. You have no idea if he thinks youre a solid TAG or not. I have a very consistent 30% vpip at the tables and yet half the guys I play with think I'm a maniac and the others think I'm a passive nit, one of them who showed me her tracker stats and she's down 50k at 2/5 in the last 8 months yet she has a "read" on me. Yeah ok.

Most players in LLSNL hand reading skill's don't go past assuming that you have AK pf when you raise. The donk bet just says, "I think the flop missed your AK, so I think you'll fold to a small bet no matter what I have." That's the logic behind betting small on the flop, isn't it?

Nothing weird about checking to a raiser when OOP. Personally on such a dry/static board, I'd check to see if I can induce some action on the river.

As played, I'd X back. We block TP/TK and he B/C the flop.

Fwiw, I like a call OTF, especially if V might LAG-off on later streets.

I'll admit, I didn't even think about just calling the flop. I don't think that's a bad option at all, especially for the reasons mentioned. I do like raising for the reason that donks are usually top pair or a draw, which will often call, so I don't expect to get folds often. Also, it's much easier to get stacks in by the river - this is the biggest reason why I prefer raising, but I genuinely wonder about the difference in EV between calling and raising.

I strongly disagree about not being able to make many assumptions from someone's 5 hours of play. I agree that we can't make a strong definitive read about what all of their actions mean, but we can at least get a decent read. I mean, it often takes less than an hour to be able to label someone the traditional LLSNL loose passive.

Oh, I disagree in the strongest terms! Within 20-30 minutes it is very possible to place someone in modestly broad categories. In particular, it's fairly easy to spot the weak players that don't really know what they're doing ... and those are the people you're most interested in anyway.

Now when you're talking about semi-skilled and skilled players (of which you seldom have more than 3-4 at the table at a time), simply knowing they fit in a "skill" category is enough when there are easier targets available.

I suppose if your ego wants to outplay better players, that's fine. Personally, I just want money.

+1000000

I couldn't agree more. My last session, I avoided the two regs that actually could play and went after the two whales the whole night. I prefer an exploitative game at the lower levels, imo it works better if you just want to win money and don't care about being the "table captain" and the like. It's all about the dollars. Period.

Doesn’t seem too weird to me. Only KJ realistically pulled ahead.

It does change the board though in that top pair on the flop is significantly weaker now. So I’d look to bet smallish, like $200

Edit: after seeing we have under a pot sized bet left, I actually think jamming might be better, and checking to induce spaz or lighter river calls could work too. If he’s bad and we can get away with a size we’d never use as a bluff, though, in order to milk his stack, go for it


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Sometimes/sometimes not. Here I would say not. When he gets raised to $175 after donking and calls OOP he has something right?

No one at low-stakes no limit is good enough to skew their image.

Play very tight, observe general playing patterns and don`t bother with thinking or acting fancy -> LLSNL GOAT

I dont mean intentionally skew, I mean their playstyle is so erratic that they can be completely different from one day to the next until you have a few sessions with them. Maybe they are still learning, still adjusting, they saw some sick new footage on HSP and want to "try something new" and open for 10xBB every hand, whatever. I just dont think a single 5 hour session is enough to define a player beyond "maniac/nit" status.

I'd go $125. You have no problems GII on good rivers, and the board isn't such that you need to get the money in ASAP. Maybe he'll interpret it as a Jx he can get you off of if he floated the flop light with T9ss or 7x or something. I don't see the rush to GII just because we have < PSB left.