Hero tag 26 asian $900 stack
Villian young white guy no reads, he just moved over. He is drinking though, and looks kinda drunk. $700 stack

2-3-5
Hero utg+2 opens AsAc to $20
Nit calls on co
Villian calls on bb

Flop $60
Qc 9c 4d
Hero bets $45
Nit calls $45
Villian ships

Snap and pray.


Edit
Ok, this is a bit closer than a I thought.

We are calling $635 into $830 so we need to be good here 43.3% of the time.
Quick estimation of his range gives us:

rd: Qc 9c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.629% 61.63% 00.00% 9762 0.00 { 99, 44, AQs, KcJc, Q9s, JcTc, Tc8c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 38.371% 38.37% 00.00% 6078 0.00 { AcAs }

So ,we're a bit short of what we need.
But it really depends on how he plays AQ here.

If he ships AQo and AQs it's s snap call.


Board: Qc 9c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.020% 51.02% 00.00% 10102 0.00 { 99, 44, AQs, KcJc, Q9s, JcTc, Tc8c, 5c4c, 4c3c, AQo }
Hand 1: 48.980% 48.98% 00.00% 9698 0.00 { AcAs }

If he only ships AQs then it's a fold based on what we have in the first range, but it's close. Esp we think that he might not play middle or bottom set that fast.

But if he never ships AQo or AQs here, then it's a pretty clear fold.


Board: Qc 9c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.882% 68.88% 00.00% 9547 0.00 { 99, 44, KcJc, Q9s, JcTc, Tc8c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 31.118% 31.12% 00.00% 4313 0.00 { AcAs }

Still think I like a call here. If he's drunk he's going to overplay some hands so lets take a ride on the variance train and find out what he's over playing.

Nah, you block NFD, and what did the nit call with?

Fold.

Also, if we think that for any reason he might flat with QQ and KK here and then over play them on the flop, we might be in a really good equity situation here:

Board: Qc 9c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.242% 46.24% 00.00% 13276 0.00 { KK-QQ, 99, 44, AQs, KcJc, Q9s, JcTc, Tc8c, 5c4c, 4c3c, AQo }
Hand 1: 53.758% 53.76% 00.00% 15434 0.00 { AcAs }

Thanks good analysis. Same result i came up with when i analysed the hand afterwards. I actually included full combos of Q9o as well, and even then we have 45% equity, which is still a worst case scenario.

Do we think it's reasonable to include all 99/44 combos when stoving V's range? With no reads, I have a tough time giving a drunk white kid credit for hate-money jamming sets this deep. I may be just looking for a reason to call, but I think this range is more reasonable for an unknown:

Board: Qc 9c 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.470% 37.47% 00.00% 7790 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 62.530% 62.53% 00.00% 13000 0.00 { 9d9h, 4c4s, KcJc, KcTc, Q9s, JcTc, Tc8c, 94s, 7c4c, 6c4c, 5c4c, 4c3c, Q9o }


Still don't have enough equity to call, but if you throw in some protection-jamming of AQ/KQ, we're not looking bad at all. Really wish nit wasn't behind us so we could try some card-exposure silliness with the Ac.

Meh, I think it's an easy fold to the ~120BB shove.

Maybe you have just enough equity.. maybe you have very little at all..

Haha im curious what would exposing the Ac accomplish?

This

Readless I would just fold. Still got the nit to act behind btw.

Readless, I think folding is fine. Its probably Q9. People don't do this often with a set because they'd prefer to slowplay or trap or raise smaller... and most people don't do it with just a pair even when they're drunk and spewing. Two-pair is a hand they could do it with because its vulnerable, unlikely to improve, but still very strong.

i think calling is a little better than folding, but both are probably okay. id expect him to show up with 4xcc/JTcc/T8cc most of the time, but this is just one of those weird spots where its hard to be certain because no one should really have a 3x pot jam range so its hard to figure out what kind of hands people would do this with. in terms of theoretical exploitability, you probably have to call off with at least some AA combos since only calling 6 combos of sets is probably too few (although this obv depends on what hands youre cbetting). AcAx seems better just because i dont think we care too much about blocking nfd as i would expect mostly combo draws and pair+fd to jam anyways, so having the redraw to reduce his equity with those hands a bit is nice, plus you block one of his outs.

oh also, id expect the nit to be capped here bc i think most nits would raise the flop with 2p+ if theres a flush draw, but if you dont think that hes capped and has some 2p/sets then probably just fold

Yeah, I mean with no reads, I actually really dislike a call.

In an hour, maybe you'll realize you might have had OK equity here.

Or that you had close to 0% equity.

Making a call based on a total guess of villain's tendencies is just spewy speculation.

poker is a game of speculation, the fact that we are forced to speculate with little information doesnt make our decision spewy. we play against a range of V's, as you indicate by saying that in an hour we could believe that we had 0% equity or great equity in this spot. if we believed that most of the time, in an hour we would realize our equity was great, then it would certainly make sense to call here.

basically, in this spot OP is forced to infer a range using pretty much only population reads and what he feels like the range most people who jam 3x pot will be.

alternatively, OP could examine his whole strategy and try to come up with something that he thinks doesn't offer players a profitable opportunity to jam with ATC (or jam with only value hands and get called too frequently), and call based solely on attempting to have unexploitable b/c and b/f ranges. either we have absolutely no information about what V's range looks like, and this approach is then probably best, or we have some information (probably in the form of population reads first then specific reads later) which we should incorporate in our decision.

I agree with some of the concepts you're think about. But look at the second post ITT from iraisetoomuch.

He guesstimates we have 31% - 48% equity vs. some reasonable population ranges. He also calculates that we need over 43% equity to make the call.

I'm not sure why we'd snap off 120BB under those conditions.

Just doesn't make sense to make a highly speculative call here imo, and there's no reason to even think it's necessarily a +EV call.

All I see is a bunch of people trying to justify a nitty ass fold.

Snap and reload if you lose.

I mean, this is obviously obnoxious and not helpful. What's your range for V?

It did make me go back to iraisetoomuch's range posts.

iraisetoomuch, I think you could include more top pair.. like KQ. Obviously we block AQ, so the effect of adding that isn't as meaningful. If you add much/any KQ.. and more JT.. it is going to be +EV.

I'd still fold. Don't see the point of shipping 120BB with no read while making a ton of assumptions re: possible population ranges and adding more and more hands to ranges until we calculate that it's a call.

And at what stack sizes aren't you snapping readless?

In the OP hand, pot is 30BB. Shove is 127BB.

Assuming same pot size, what if the all-in shove is 200BB? 300? 500? 1000? 2000?

Always just "LOL CALL"?

I think we are close in this spot, but because nit flats you w V behind I think this is a clear fold. What is nits range in this spot?

AQ, KQ, JQs, QTs
Shes always raising her monsters (2p+)



Thanka jvds some fine theoretical analysis once again. May i ask what is your general background in poker? Were you a winning onljne player? Read many books on game theory? Secret live crusher?

I always draw tremendous insight and respect/value your posts

So can we eliminate these cards from V range? Kinda changes things in favor of a fold right?

Well im talking about the nit not the villian

Snapping and not praying, feeling pretty confident you are ahead.

What's the nits reaction when villain shoves? I always pay attention to the third player in the hand when the other player is moving raising chips into the pot. Given the huge shove, the nit probably gave off some kind of a reaction.

Larry