7- handed and about $975 effective with relevant V.

V2 is the only relevant description. ~60 yrs old, crusty foreign guy maybe euro or south american. Very loose passive preflop. One of these guys who doesn't 3b anything but AA-KK and maybe even just AA. Has shown aggression post flop when he had the goods but overall just passive and bad.

V1 opens $15 in CO.
V2 flats $15 on BTN.
Hero 3bets to $65 in SB with AA
V1 fold
V2 insta-calls.

I'm ranging him on middling stuff like 88-JJ, KQs, maybe a few other suited broadways. Blocking AK and AQ so discounting those. QQ-KK still possible but not in my head at the time.

Flop: T73 Pot ~$145

Hero - Leads for $100
V2 - Insta- calls.

Ok he likes his hand and didnt need to think. Now i'm thinking over pair or top pair.

Turn 3 Pot ~$345

Hero - Leads for $200
V2 takes about 2 seconds and jams ALL IN. Chips are a mess and I need a count. It's ~$810 total. So we're looking at a pot of ~ $1350 now and it's $600 for me to call.

Noteworthy - I saw V take a similar line earlier with a flopped set where he flatted flop and jammed turn. It was a single raised pot and much smaller jam. He seems like the type of (bad) player who just rips it in rather than slow playing.

Thoughts on the spot? I can share a potential live read later if it helps.

Thoughts on the line? I'm thinking this is a 3-street hand with this board and action. If that's my line I'm thinking I need to size up turn to $300 to make for an easier jam on the river. As played the river jam woulda been about $600 into $745.

Thanks.

As a default vs described, this is a fold - bad/passives aren't jamming with a single pair, they're just calling down. There can be game flow and image considerations that make it a call, and the 3 on the turn is a great card for you, cutting down the number of sets he can have (I'm assuming he can't have A3s based on your description, but if he can, then it's the same number of hands you are losing to)

To call here, he has to be jamming ~3.5 non set combos, so like, if you think he'd jam KK here ~half the time, then you gotta call. Folding is a huge exploit play.

Agreed this is a 3 street hand, especially given the turn.

I make it $80 pre, perhaps $85.

I bet small on the flop, something like a quarter to a third. Your large bet size makes hands that want to see a turn like 88, 99, suited broadway more likely to fold.

A small minority of players play their cards face up, but usually a nutted hand takes a while before it calls. Quick calls tend to be hands that have an easy call, but aren't thinking of raising or folding. So something like a draw or mid pair, or even an overpair.

The turn card is good for you as it reduces the set combos he might have. Again, a minority of players play their cards face up, but if villain had set on the flop, he now has a full house. Why does he shove? Most people try to milk you in that sport, right?

Against most villains, this is a fold. There's a good chance this villain played his cards face up but I suspect he had KK or QQ and he shoved to protect what he thought was a monster.

I might level myself into a call here.

I agree, he flopped a set (probably pocket 10's) then boated up. What else would he call a pre flop raise with?

This is a good example of Baluga theorem. I would only call if he has shown a tendency to overvalue/overplay top pair type hands. But this is usually a flopped set. Although the 3 is a decent turn card, it makes it less likely he will try to bluff against your show of strength.

Snap call. You’re so high in your range he can value worse and full houses will just call turn a lot. Huge mistake to fold if he can play something like KK this way.

Not sure I can get behind the small bet. These players are quite inelastic so we need to pound them for value. I believe this player type folds all suited broadway misses to any small bet size so why not get max from any pair?
What is your line on the turn after betting small on the flop? Are you thinking three streets on this board/turn also?

If you re betting a good deal of your range that has missed, it's better to bet small. I am also going for 3 streets and betting bigger on turn. A small flop bet doesn't stop you from doing that.

Any reads you have should be shared in the original post, not to sprung on the forum later.

Noted. It was a live read in the moment after he jammed rather than a previously known tell so I didn't include.

It's kinda vague but here it is: I was tanking and squirming and decided to talk to him. I said 77 or TT really? Gave him the stare down and he looked quite stiff and uncomfortable. He didn't budge at all. He was leaning into the table with his hand on the side of his neck. He didn't have the appearance of a man who comfortable with the situation. Prior to this moment I was chatting and friendly with him so it was quite the 180. I thought maybe if he was nutted he woulda said something.

The thing that's tripping me up here, is that he has KK and QQ here sometimes, and your biggest problem is having the As since that now blocks A7s.

Theres 12 combos of KK QQ
One combo of A3clubs (I don't know if this gets to the turn though)
1 combo 98s (Do we think he's capable of shoving this?)
7 combos 1010, 77, 33 (maybe we can eliminate 33 since there was a reraise?)

In general, on a dry board against most opponents this is an easy fold, sure. But the fact that homeboy is so passive that he shows up here with KK and QQ somehow really skews it towards a call I think.

Snap call.

This is JJ-kk or AT so much more often than TT or 77. Can't fold the second best hand were ever gonna have here. If he has a set so be it and it looks like a protection bet for an over pair

Despite OP description, I still think he is likely to 3bet KK OTB (and possibly QQ). I also think if he is more likely to raise KK/QQ OTF than wait to a turn to fade an “ace magnet”.

What do you think he ranges you at? He definitely knows you can have AA and still throws caution to the wind with his whole stack even though he's passive? If he's capable of changing gears then well played. It's a fold most of the time here.

Call.
Almost every rec player at 2/5 has some semi bluffs and jj-qq here. You haven’t played with this guy enough to fold the 2nd best hand in your range.

FWIW I behave similarly to the described villain when I ship turn and my range is exactly TT. I don't say anything, don't look villain in the face and look uneasy / uncomfortable.

Good price, beating some value, live read. Pretty sweet spot for a snap call

Are we really saying that the villain as described over limped with JJ, QQ, KK or AT, AND chose not to limp reraise the hero's 3 bet from the sb, while he had position? That would take the same type of tard to just stuff the full house here on the turn. However, maybe he just got excited when he filled up, or maybe he hit a wildcard 3 for trips>??

I mean if we can't lay down AA here, that is cool. However, who in the actual hell overlimps a facecard pair and does it a second time on the same street?

I think the poster's description answered the question for himself already.

He didn’t limp, he called a raise, and the description said he wouldn’t 3b jacks or queens and maybe kings

This for sure. It’s not worth sizing down 3b when deep OOP with premium hands. Here, I think a bigger pre 3b shaves down the number of 77 combos enough to make this a pretty reasonable call.

As played, it’s prob a fold. The fat jam is so strange that I call a lot though.

FWIW, the mentality of the older guys who call QQ-AA pf is that they are going to trap you all the way down to the river. They aren't going to go nuts and decide to play for stacks on the turn. This all has the look of a guy with a set who got nervous when the FD possibility came on the turn.

I fold.

He got a full house on the turn.

Thank you for being brave enough to speak the truth

That is true, my bad.

Still a very low chance he's jamming the turn with KK.

RESULTS:

Alright seems like we've covered most of the considerations. I'm a big proponent of NOT paying off loose passive players that show big aggression. It's an important exploit in my strategy (as it should be for all of us at LLSNL). Still, there were too many factors here that swayed this to a call for me. Most, if not all, of those factors were already mentioned ITT so I won't recap all of them.

I didn't love it and I'm not good enough to "snap call" this spot but I found the call and was ready to live with results.