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2/5 AA on button, wet flop 2/5 AA on button, wet flop

09-27-2017 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by whorasaurus
Results:

Spoiler:
Hero calls.

Turn (425): QJ87

SB leads 350, hero levels himself and thinks SB has a ton of combo draws in his range since he doesn't have the A, also tells himself that T9 would bet a bit more delicately to get value. Hero rips it in, SB has T9dd.


FWIW, I'm certain he's 3b QQ, but JJ is difficult to say. In general, I probably overestimate how aggro unknowns will be with a combo draw around >=200bb. While I think most would put in big raises with a hand like AThh here, or even A9hh, that's probably not right. I suspect most fit or fold players will just call these hands all the way to the river rather than raise. Moving forward, I'll look for a basic level of player sophistication before assuming an opponent would make this move.
Your opponent really doesn't matter, you likely just need to determine whether you want to bet-shove or bet-f AA 900 deep.
I also doubt you can find any bet-calls facing any SB ckr better than folding/shoving.

I would also feel a lot better with a hand like AQss than AA here, but either way I'm not stacking off, so many better hands...gross.
2/5 AA on button, wet flop Quote
09-27-2017 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by whorasaurus
Effective stacks 900.

Hero has been relatively active at the table. Has been successfully squeezing 2-3 times in the last 2h. Hero's two showdown hands during this time have been nutted. Hero has also been reading stuff on an ipad, which probably presents a disinterested vibe to the table. In other words, hero may appear to only be playing strong hands pf since otherwise he would fold and keep reading.

Folds to HJ, who limps. Hero 25 with AA. SB calls, HJ calls.

SB is a pretty quiet player. Haven't seen him get involved in anything significant over the last 2h. Younger MAAG. Steelers fan. HJ is a fish.

Flop (75): QJ8

Checks to Hero, who bets 55. SB x/r to 175. HJ folds. Hero?

edit: Hero has been doing a fair amount of cbetting flop, and then folding to turn/river donks.
grunch
Bet flop IMO, your sizing is fine and you have good equity against their calling ranges and against a single raiser, I prob call the flop and call most low non-heart turns, fold on straightening cards except A, board pairs are good and probably do the same on the river, this is against a good aggro competent opponent if you think SB is nitty and only raises the flop for value just muck your hand on the flop

Last edited by kimoser22; 09-27-2017 at 02:43 PM.
2/5 AA on button, wet flop Quote
09-27-2017 , 03:16 PM
non-grunch
a side arguement for folding is that on this board you have many better combos to defend with you still have all the sets,top 2, combo draws and 9xTx so against general 2-5 nitty reg players I just dump on the flop and even against aggros (non-whale aggro) I might call once and dump on non-super favorable turns (non-heart board pair or A turns)
2/5 AA on button, wet flop Quote
09-27-2017 , 06:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Your opponent really doesn't matter, you likely just need to determine whether you want to bet-shove or bet-f AA 900 deep.
I also doubt you can find any bet-calls facing any SB ckr better than folding/shoving.

I would also feel a lot better with a hand like AQss than AA here, but either way I'm not stacking off, so many better hands...gross.
Why would we rather have AQss? Because AA blocks more hands like AQ AJ? Or because AA has two outs v. 2p and AQ has 5? Or something else entirely?

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2/5 AA on button, wet flop Quote
09-27-2017 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Why would we rather have AQss? Because AA blocks more hands like AQ AJ? Or because AA has two outs v. 2p and AQ has 5? Or something else entirely?

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk
To be clear, I'm talking about after being ck-raised, and when it's all tallied up, it probably doesn't matter since both AA and AQ likely do better EV wise as a fold. But my thoughts are...

...Pot equity wise, AQss naturally trails AA even after removal, but what isn't immediately accounted for is how hard AQ impacts Vs calling range compared to AA. So now, with fewer calls available (KQ, QT), 3 fewer value combos (QQ, QJ), and a few more available bluff combos (AT), V now has more raise/folds than calls - which is a good thing if thinking about stacking off on the flop.
2/5 AA on button, wet flop Quote

      
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