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Old 05-22-2016, 11:42 AM   #1
BenT07891
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2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Reads: He is reasonably loose preflop. Postflop he is a bit passive and has shown down one very telling hand. He was in position with 56s against a very very LAG player who rarely folds and bluffs a bit too often. I think it was heads up but might have been 3-way. He limp/called 67s in late position against a ~$40 raise (standard sizing for the LAG). Flop was 4 6 7 rainbow. $400 effective and he actually folded to a PSB (~$100 into $100). He did however call a shortstack $200 crai with KJ on a K 10 2 board in one hand. In a different hand, he only called two half pot sized bets with Q8 on a K Q 8 rainbow flop, 2 turn. River A and he checked behind in position.That pot was like 6 way though.

My image is fine, no bluffs shown or attempted yet. I've got ~1600 he's got ~500.

V straddles for 10. Folds to me in the SB and I complete with A6. BB completes, V checks.

Flop: J85. Checks to villain who bets 25 into 30. I make it 75, BB folds, V calls.

Turn: J852. I bet 150 V tank calls.

River: J852Q.

I make a small speech claiming fear of a str8 and tank shove.

Here's my thought process: Pre is standard. On the flop, I feel I must defend about as aggressively as a heads up raised pot, since I voluntarily put in 9 pre (i.e. I was not getting great pot odds pre). I also think I can widen my bluff range since stacks are very deep in terms of PSB remaining, my read on villain of folding a bit too often, and the fact that he SHOULD reraise flop with a set or top 2 pair for protection.

Turn: Against a good player or one who I have less of a read on, my hand would go into the check/fold range (if turn was a diamond, it'd go into my bet range). But due to my read and the fact that he should be capped at bottom two pair, I deviate from standard and bet again.

River: Though I have some showdown value against missed draws (e.g. 107 or 64), there's a chance he'll bluff if I check and I can't check call. My bluff (or bet with the best hand against missed draws) would only need to work 37% of the time to break even. Thanks to planning the hand based on stack depth from the start, there is now a decent, threatening bet size (i.e. it's not like I can only make a tiny, non threatening bet now) left. JX, AJo, or KJo might find a fold.

Thoughts?
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Old 05-22-2016, 12:12 PM   #2
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

In hand 1 did v have 56 or 67?
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Old 05-22-2016, 12:15 PM   #3
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

I'd give up on the river. Possibly the turn too but the brick 2c is a good card to continue to rep J8. Its a little awkward we'd jam when the Q comes on the river since we're repping top 2/set on the flop that becomes very vulnerable when the straight and higher two pair come in on the river.

Random 2pair hands make sense, J5/85 that V would play this way. Hands like 96dd or other trash FD/SD hands make sense as well but we can win vs those at showdown.

Def game flow dependent in this case, I'd rather triple barrel with more overlay in the pot.
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Old 05-22-2016, 12:30 PM   #4
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
In hand 1 did v have 56 or 67?
Sorry it was a typo. He had middle pair and an inside straight draw.

56s and flop was either 6 8 4 rainbow or 6 7 3 rainbow.
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Old 05-22-2016, 12:39 PM   #5
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

lol, i love it
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Old 05-22-2016, 01:07 PM   #6
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Grunch:
Quote:
My image is fine, no bluffs shown or attempted yet. I've got ~1600 he's got ~500.
The no bluffs part isn't usually the strongest part of what makes you image good or bad in these games. Sure, they notice shown bluffs, but winning or losing is a stronger image to most LLSNL players. The fact that you have such a big stack is more likely an indicator of your image being scary and "always having it" to an LP V.

Pre is not standard. It should be a raise all day. You have blockers to a decent hand, and a hand that is generally crap and you won't want to play OOP without initiative. Especially with this somewhat MUBSY V post, you can very often get a call pre and fold OTF for a nice little profit from a bad hand in bad position.

Flop CR with the NFD blocker is fine, imo. I'd be interested to know how he called flop, as that would help me figure out how much of his range was draws.

AP, I'm fine with the rest of the line against described V. Pre is really a bad thing to consider standard here though, imo.
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Old 05-22-2016, 01:16 PM   #7
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Grunch:
The no bluffs part isn't usually the strongest part of what makes you image good or bad in these games. Sure, they notice shown bluffs, but winning or losing is a stronger image to most LLSNL players. The fact that you have such a big stack is more likely an indicator of your image being scary and "always having it" to an LP V.

Pre is not standard. It should be a raise all day. You have blockers to a decent hand, and a hand that is generally crap and you won't want to play OOP without initiative. Especially with this somewhat MUBSY V post, you can very often get a call pre and fold OTF for a nice little profit from a bad hand in bad position.

Flop CR with the NFD blocker is fine, imo. I'd be interested to know how he called flop, as that would help me figure out how much of his range was draws.

AP, I'm fine with the rest of the line against described V. Pre is really a bad thing to consider standard here though, imo.
I do know that V is a bit loose preflop though. He's called an UTG open with Q8o and a 40 SB raise with 56s. If I make it like 35 with A6o, he's more likely than average to call w/ a hand like those in which case I'm going to the flop without much of an advantage. I.e. Q8o is like 40% equity against me.

He took a decent amount of time to call both flop and turn.
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Old 05-22-2016, 01:36 PM   #8
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Grunch:
The no bluffs part isn't usually the strongest part of what makes you image good or bad in these games. Sure, they notice shown bluffs, but winning or losing is a stronger image to most LLSNL players. The fact that you have such a big stack is more likely an indicator of your image being scary and "always having it" to an LP V.

Pre is not standard. It should be a raise all day. You have blockers to a decent hand, and a hand that is generally crap and you won't want to play OOP without initiative. Especially with this somewhat MUBSY V post, you can very often get a call pre and fold OTF for a nice little profit from a bad hand in bad position.

Flop CR with the NFD blocker is fine, imo. I'd be interested to know how he called flop, as that would help me figure out how much of his range was draws.

AP, I'm fine with the rest of the line against described V. Pre is really a bad thing to consider standard here though, imo.


Agree that pre is not standard.

Disagree that it s/b a raise all day. Being OOP is exactly what gets you in this God-awful spewing situation, shoving in chips without really knowing where you stand. Call me too tight, but pre is standard fold all day. For $1 invested, save $9 and leverage your image and stack in position.

Garrick correctly describes this as a bad hand in bad position.

Time and time again we are reminded that position is the most important thing in LLSNL. Hero doesn't have it, nor a good hand. Fold pre.
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Old 05-22-2016, 01:52 PM   #9
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Struggling to see how pre is standard. That's a raise or fold and I don't think it's really a close decision.
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Old 05-22-2016, 01:55 PM   #10
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
I do know that V is a bit loose preflop though. He's called an UTG open with Q8o and a 40 SB raise with 56s. If I make it like 35 with A6o, he's more likely than average to call w/ a hand like those in which case I'm going to the flop without much of an advantage. I.e. Q8o is like 40% equity against me.

He took a decent amount of time to call both flop and turn.
Sure, if he calls he doesn't have much of an equity disadvantage, but he usually won't hit strongly (if at all) and he's a bit MUBSY post. You can TID with a c-bet very often, and knowing his continuing range, proceed with caution if he continues.

His taking time (OTF especially) reduces his draw range, imo, which makes me like the triple-barrel less, but I think it's still OK against this V specifically.
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:02 PM   #11
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2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Villain's pf looseness doesn't help much here since he straddled in terms of range. (I get that it's a consideration for bloating the pot pre with a raise). I'm more interested in his pf aggression. For example can we assume he'd raise QJo TJ from the straddle heads up vs the SB?

It seems to me he's folding some weak non diamond Jx on flop or turn and some draws ott. So I do think in order to approach 40% FE we are going to have to be folding some 2p hands. There just aren't enough missed draws and 1p hands in his range. Esp given the added read on his call pacing. I mean our c/r flop barrel turn line is super strong.

If he has mid 2p the Q is just one more card he hates when you ship river. So that's cool.

I actually like the mini speech OTR. I think the 3 barrel is close as we are bluffing into medium strength a lot. And generally I'll advised.

If I had a strong lol live read that v was oozing that "please don't bet again vibe" and given he can continue past flop with a range that he'll fold to a 3 barrel I'd probably go ahead and continue but I do think this is very close at best.

I'd be interested in seeing how you perceive his range OTR op and seeing what that 37% looks like.

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 05-22-2016 at 02:13 PM.
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:07 PM   #12
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Reads:... He limp/called 67s in late position against a ~$40 raise (standard sizing for the LAG). Flop was 4 6 7 rainbow. $400 effective and he actually folded to a PSB (~$100 into $100).
Folding makes no sense, makes me wonder how accurate the read was.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
My image is fine, no bluffs shown or attempted yet. I've got ~1600 he's got ~500.

V straddles for 10. Folds to me in the SB and I complete with A6. BB completes, V checks.

Flop: J85. Checks to villain who bets 25 into 30. I make it 75, BB folds, V calls.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Here's my thought process: Pre is standard. On the flop, I feel I must defend about as aggressively as a heads up raised pot, since I voluntarily put in 9 pre (i.e. I was not getting great pot odds pre).
Fact that you think you need to defend aggressively because you completed SB makes completing SB with a junk hand really bad.

Old sayin' "never go broke in a limp pot" is true, because you are dealing with a very wide range, and it's difficult to decipher whether V is making a move (because he also put you on a very wide range), or he actually has it.

Plus being OOP, it is literally "how do I play poker the hardest way possible."

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
I also think I can widen my bluff range since stacks are very deep in terms of PSB remaining, my read on villain of folding a bit too often, and the fact that he SHOULD reraise flop with a set or top 2 pair for protection.
Goes back to your read that simply did not make sense.

But hey, it's not the first time someone justifies spewing by referencing a hand that may or may not actually happened. Goes to show you why it's good to show a bad starting hand in a bluff.

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Turn: Against a good player or one who I have less of a read on, my hand would go into the check/fold range (if turn was a diamond, it'd go into my bet range). But due to my read and the fact that he should be capped at bottom two pair, I deviate from standard and bet again.
Funny you think that against "good" players, you would check/fold. According to you in the other thread, a good player "should" have a rather wide flop calling range.

So a double barrel would work best against a wide range and a good player who is capable of folding more so than a bad player.

A weak player on the other hand, there is more value in considering whether V is ever folding after calling CR on the flop to a non-threatening turn card.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
River: Though I have some showdown value against missed draws (e.g. 107 or 64), there's a chance he'll bluff if I check and I can't check call.
Makes no sense if those were the range you assigned as example. Would be simple math to range possible busted draws that you can beat vs busted draws that would accidentally merge and beat your bluff catchers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
My bluff (or bet with the best hand against missed draws) would only need to work 37% of the time to break even. Thanks to planning the hand based on stack depth from the start, there is now a decent, threatening bet size (i.e. it's not like I can only make a tiny, non threatening bet now) left. JX, AJo, or KJo might find a fold.
But would it work even 20% of the times? After all, he could put you on a busted draw just as easily and he's already committed nearly half of his stack.

And does he even have hands in his range to fold 37% of the times? You should have the ranging and math figured out.
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:28 PM   #13
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Struggling to see how pre is standard. That's a raise or fold and I don't think it's really a close decision.
I'd say call > fold pre but it's unclear if call > raise. We have an above average hand against two random hands. If we raise and are called, the effective stacks are shallow so we can't bluff as much.

Also, I didn't mention but the BB is also pretty loose in calling preflop but plays more standard postflop.
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:32 PM   #14
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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I'd say call > fold pre but it's unclear if call > raise. We have an above average hand against two random hands. If we raise and are called, the effective stacks are shallow so we can't bluff as much.
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I also think I can widen my bluff range since stacks are very deep in terms of PSB remaining, my read on villain of folding a bit too often, and the fact that he SHOULD reraise flop with a set or top 2 pair for protection.
But we can on the flop? Makes sense...
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:39 PM   #15
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

You put in $9 OOP with A trash , then you felt obligated to aggressively defend. You end up with $500 in the pot and no pair. How'd that work out?
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:41 PM   #16
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Villain's pf looseness doesn't help much here since he straddled in terms of range. (I get that it's a consideration for bloating the pot pre with a raise). I'm more interested in his pf aggression. For example can we assume he'd raise QJo TJ from the straddle heads up vs the SB?

It seems to me he's folding some weak non diamond Jx on flop or turn and some draws ott. So I do think in order to approach 40% FE we are going to have to be folding some 2p hands. There just aren't enough missed draws and 1p hands in his range. Esp given the added read on his call pacing. I mean our c/r flop barrel turn line is super strong.

If he has mid 2p the Q is just one more card he hates when you ship river. So that's cool.

I actually like the mini speech OTR. I think the 3 barrel is close as we are bluffing into medium strength a lot. And generally I'll advised.

If I had a strong lol live read that v was oozing that "please don't bet again vibe" and given he can continue past flop with a range that he'll fold to a 3 barrel I'd probably go ahead and continue but I do think this is very close at best.

I'd be interested in seeing how you perceive his range OTR op and seeing what that 37% looks like.
He rarely raises preflop so I think he'd check QJ or J10 pre.

Yeah he's definitely folding weak draws on the turn, like a naked 10-9 or small naked flush draw. He's probably folding weak J-X on the turn but not flop. I thought he'd probably call turn with KJ or AJ though. JX should definitely call turn as well as all combo draws.

It seems like the only hands that are certainly in his river range that he certainly calls with are 109 and QJ. Bottom two pair might or might not call. Same with AJ or KJ or Q10.

It also seems like the quantity of flush draws + straight draws is very big and these almost certainly call the turn bet. EG: 64, 63, 67, 69, 79, 710, 34, 32.

There are 9 combos of J5 and 8 combos of the above flush draws.
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:42 PM   #17
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Originally Posted by maximilian View Post
You put in $9 OOP with A trash , then you felt obligated to aggressively defend. You end up with $500 in the pot and no pair. How'd that work out?

A good post and with a very important question. I know wich word i would use for it, lets make that clear. Hint: it starts with an "S" and ends with "W".


Just a fun fact: A6 off is the one single hand that NL players lose the most money with on average.
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:50 PM   #18
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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It seems like the only hands that are certainly in his river range that he certainly calls with are 109 and QJ. Bottom two pair might or might not call. Same with AJ or KJ or Q10.

It also seems like the quantity of flush draws + straight draws is very big and these almost certainly call the turn bet. EG: 64, 63, 67, 69, 79, 710, 34, 32.

There are 9 combos of J5 and 8 combos of the above flush draws.
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River: Though I have some showdown value against missed draws (e.g. 107 or 64), there's a chance he'll bluff if I check and I can't check call.
With that many busted flush draw combos on river, you still can't bluff catch?
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Old 05-22-2016, 02:57 PM   #19
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

I probably fold pf but I'm a nit. I raise if I don't fold, but if I do, it's under the assumption that the straddle isn't folding.

Given the preflop call, if I want to make a move, I prefer an OOP float to a check-raise bluff with air, since there are many cards that can come which give us a legitimate semibluff. This is, admittedly, something I do based on my particular table image as a tricky player who can slowplay on this flop. It's not for everyone.
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Old 05-22-2016, 03:38 PM   #20
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2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
He rarely raises preflop so I think he'd check QJ or J10 pre.

Yeah he's definitely folding weak draws on the turn, like a naked 10-9 or small naked flush draw. He's probably folding weak J-X on the turn but not flop. I thought he'd probably call turn with KJ or AJ though. JX should definitely call turn as well as all combo draws.

It seems like the only hands that are certainly in his river range that he certainly calls with are 109 and QJ. Bottom two pair might or might not call. Same with AJ or KJ or Q10.

It also seems like the quantity of flush draws + straight draws is very big and these almost certainly call the turn bet. EG: 64, 63, 67, 69, 79, 710, 34, 32.

There are 9 combos of J5 and 8 combos of the above flush draws.

You think he always folds Non diamond QJ? I don't. He's going to assign some draws you your c/r range and anything he defends with that backs into a Q ain't folding often. Also Q2dd is 1 gross combo he prob calls with that you left out. I'd expect straddle to be raising AJ/KJ pre a decent amount. I'd at least discount those.

So I think it's closer.
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Old 05-23-2016, 01:27 AM   #21
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

I would just fold pre TBH.

I think the flop raise is bad vs. a villain you just said is passive, given we currently have A-high and a couple of backdoors.

Turn just seems spewy, I would want to have picked up more equity and also I don't think this is the guy to run this on.

River, well if he called so far he should call again unless he was drawing. You are repping sets/2 pairs/busted FDs IMO.

Hopefully it all worked out for you but overall this looks bad to me. I'm simply never triple barrelling fishy players and if I did, I'm never doing it with this little equity.
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Old 05-23-2016, 09:03 AM   #22
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

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Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Flop: J85. Checks to villain who bets 25 into 30. I make it 75, BB folds, V calls.

Turn: J852. I bet 150 V tank calls...
Looks like he's made up his mind to call you down with a medium strength hand to me. I can't think of a time where the obvious draw missed and a villain folds river after bet/call flop and call turn.

He's calling with a J all day here.

You have Ad so if you are itching to do something non-standard I think you would be better off check/calling this river. Given the Q8 check behind in previous hands his betting is really polarized on the river. I think this line is way better on the river than open jamming.

But yeah, I'd probably fold pre 66% of time and raise 33%.
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Old 05-24-2016, 08:20 AM   #23
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2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Grunch

I'm not sure why we feel compelled to defend our SB in a straddled pot with this hand. Fold and move onto the next hand

You gave 4 HH for V that really prove nothing about how he plays because they are so inconsistent (folding top 2 to psb yet calling 2 half psb with bottom 2, calling CRIA with TPMK which was more $ bet than the top 2 hand), which is why I'm not really a fan of playing this hand or how you ultimately played it

As played, the way to apparently show the most strength against V is to just lead flop for psb. If he calls c/f the next 2 streets.

In general, it seems once he thinks he's good, he's not folding, so any action after the flop is just spewy without upgrading equity
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Old 05-27-2016, 09:43 PM   #24
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Just one more post from me and I'll post the results next.

So it's finally time for a long overdue opponent fold freq estimation. Before I start, the reason I took this line was because I thought villain was playing "small hand, small pot" and "don't go broke in a limped pot" poker. If that's the case, he should have exploitably high fold frequencies. If he fails to call down 17.6% of the time or more (50% of the time on the flop * 55% of the time on the turn * 64% of the time on the river), then my line is +EV with any two cards. That 17.6% is only if I'm always drawing dead with my bluff. In this case, I have a sliver of equity on the flop (backdoor flush and one overcard) and some showdown value on the river, so he must call down a little more than 17.6% of the time. If he is only willing to stackoff with a set or two pair, those should make up far less than 17.6% of his flop bet range.

I also made the following assumptions on the flop based on my read:

1. He will probably play draws passively and not reraise.

2. He will always call top pair on the flop but will fold all top pairs on the turn except maybe AJ, KJ, or QJ.

3. He will fold turn with a small naked flush or straight draw but will always call with a combo str8 + FD or combo FD + pair.

4. He will bet flop with all J-X, most decent kicker 8-X, and a decent amount of semibluff draws.

5. He will not slowplay top two pair or a set on the flop but will only call with worse two pair. He will also not overplay good J-X hands or turn 8-X into a bluff reraise.

So here we go, starting on the turn:

Required turn fold Freq for bluff to be +EV = 45%. One pair J-X = 108 combos (46 call combos and 62 fold combos), 19 two-pair combos (all calls), One pair 8-X = 60 combos (all folds), naked open ended straight draw = 30 combos (all folds), naked flush draws = 21 combos (all folds), FD with gutshot or Open ender = 13 combos (all calls), FD with a pair = 9 combos (all calls). That's 173 fold combos and 87 call combos for a fold rate of 67%.

So quick note: per this range, the turn bluff is at least +$72EV, but it's possible he folds too much on the turn but not on the river. In this case, we should bluff turn and check/fold river. During the actual hand, I knew roughly that a turn bluff should be much, much higher EV than the river bluff but couldn't quantify it at the moment. I thought the river bluff was marginally +EV or around neutral EV. Let's find out. Assumptions = Calls with AJ,KJ, QJ, folds all weaker J-X (remember he gets to river with JX). He also calls all two pair and Q-X.

Required river fold Freq for bluff to be +EV = 36%. One pair J-X = 38 combos (32 call combos and 6 fold combos), 19 two-pair combos (all calls), FD with gutshot or Open ender = 13 combos (3 calls and 10 folds), FD with a pair = 8 combos (7 folds and 1 call). That's 23 fold combos and 55 call combos for a fold rate of 29%.

So from above, the turn bet was +EV while river bet was -EV, but combined my turn+river bluff line is +EV since he calls down only 23% of the time when he must call down at least 35.2%

Also, I used an assumption from posters here that I'm not sure is true: that villain calls all the way down with AJ and KJ. If he folds these on turn or river, my bluff line is even higher EV.

PHEW, that was alot of work lol. But now I feel comfortable taking this exact same line going forward with any two cards to against players who I think call down less than ~18% of the time (i.e. people who need strong hands to commit their stack) AND who would fold AJ or KJ on this river (these two hands alone are so many combos they can tip the river shove from +EV or -EV or vice versa).

Last edited by BenT07891; 05-27-2016 at 09:51 PM.
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Old 05-28-2016, 02:14 AM   #25
CallMeVernon
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Required turn fold Freq for bluff to be +EV = 45%. One pair J-X = 108 combos (46 call combos and 62 fold combos), 19 two-pair combos (all calls), One pair 8-X = 60 combos (all folds), naked open ended straight draw = 30 combos (all folds), naked flush draws = 21 combos (all folds), FD with gutshot or Open ender = 13 combos (all calls), FD with a pair = 9 combos (all calls). That's 173 fold combos and 87 call combos for a fold rate of 67%.

So quick note: per this range, the turn bluff is at least +$72EV, but it's possible he folds too much on the turn but not on the river. In this case, we should bluff turn and check/fold river. During the actual hand, I knew roughly that a turn bluff should be much, much higher EV than the river bluff but couldn't quantify it at the moment. I thought the river bluff was marginally +EV or around neutral EV. Let's find out. Assumptions = Calls with AJ,KJ, QJ, folds all weaker J-X (remember he gets to river with JX). He also calls all two pair and Q-X.

Required river fold Freq for bluff to be +EV = 36%. One pair J-X = 38 combos (32 call combos and 6 fold combos), 19 two-pair combos (all calls), FD with gutshot or Open ender = 13 combos (3 calls and 10 folds), FD with a pair = 8 combos (7 folds and 1 call). That's 23 fold combos and 55 call combos for a fold rate of 29%.

So from above, the turn bet was +EV while river bet was -EV, but combined my turn+river bluff line is +EV since he calls down only 23% of the time when he must call down at least 35.2%
I am not even going to get into whether you can expect your earlier assumptions to be true. Let's assume they are. The bolded is still not correct. You are mixing up conditional probabilities.

When you're trying to compute the EV of a combined turn/river bluff, you need to take the average over all possible rivers. It may be the case that on THIS river you get a "combined" fold percentage of 77%. But on other rivers you may not. It may turn out to be the case that if you commit to bluffing all rivers, some rivers you will get snapped by a lot more hand combos than you would on this one and the average number of times you get called over all rivers will drag your EV down enough to make the entire bluff line questionable (which could of course be solved by checking some rivers, but then you should have a plan for which rivers to shut down on--and according to the computations you've done here, this should actually be one of them).
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