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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 05-28-2016, 02:57 AM   #26
wj94
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Fold pre AINEC. Maximilian's post summed it all up.
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Old 05-28-2016, 05:19 AM   #27
7weeks2days
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Yeah folding>3!>calling. Folding being the clear winnah.

Reading this seems like its one of those hands where you are just bored and get involved in a pot you shouldn't which happens to everyone. The reasoning behind your line seems like it was all articulated after the fact. This isn't always bad but in this case b/c sometimes you can instinctively find good spots I don't think this is one of them.

As played, on the other hand, I suppose as long as you plan on speech jamming a bunch of rivers it might alright if villain is folding enough. Speech jamming is pretty BA though.

What rivers are you speech jamming?
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Old 05-28-2016, 06:31 AM   #28
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

How many combinations of speech jams vs. silent jams do we need to make to be unexploitable though?
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Old 05-28-2016, 08:07 AM   #29
br3nt00
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

pretty sick, hard for me to put myself in this spot as i don't think i'd ever do this, but its definitely a sick play. not sure i like having the Ad as that removes a lot of his missed draws (AXdd). hope it worked!
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Old 05-28-2016, 02:18 PM   #30
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I am not even going to get into whether you can expect your earlier assumptions to be true. Let's assume they are. The bolded is still not correct. You are mixing up conditional probabilities.

When you're trying to compute the EV of a combined turn/river bluff, you need to take the average over all possible rivers. It may be the case that on THIS river you get a "combined" fold percentage of 77%. But on other rivers you may not. It may turn out to be the case that if you commit to bluffing all rivers, some rivers you will get snapped by a lot more hand combos than you would on this one and the average number of times you get called over all rivers will drag your EV down enough to make the entire bluff line questionable (which could of course be solved by checking some rivers, but then you should have a plan for which rivers to shut down on--and according to the computations you've done here, this should actually be one of them).
No, the bolded was correct. Proof: I assigned him 226 total combos on the turn and assigned him 50 combos that call the river. 50/226 = 24% (off 1 % from the bold due to rounding).

About bluffing different river cards, the best river bluff card would be a since I block the nut flush. Remember, if my read on villain was that he didn't call too often or too little, I'd aim to have a bluff ~25-30% of the time and would use hands with blocking effects to fill that bluff portion. So A6o would fall into the check/fold range since it has poor blocking effects. Basically, I'd give up some turn bluffs but not others depending on the river card.

But since this entire line was based on my read that he folds too much and is too passive, I'm not giving up as many (or any at all) turn bluffs on the river therefore I followed through though this isn't a great river bluff card. Also, if the river doesn't have helpful blocking effects, it really doesn't matter too much what it is. I.E. as played, any non-diamond river probably doesn't change the EV of my river shove that much.

Results: He folds, claiming to have 6diamond7diamond. He folded pretty fast so I think I believe him.
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Old 05-29-2016, 09:04 AM   #31
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

So, it WASN'T a river bluff. You got him to fold 7 high. You're a genius.

Seriously, this is a fold pre 99 percent of the time.
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Old 05-29-2016, 09:22 AM   #32
Gilmour
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
So, it WASN'T a river bluff. You got him to fold 7 high. You're a genius.

Seriously, this is a fold pre 99 percent of the time.
GL in getting OP to understand that. He feel the need for being perfectly balanced in every spot playing 2/5.

If it was any doubt: i agree with you 100 percent.

Sent from my LG-H815 using 2+2 Forums
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Old 05-29-2016, 01:04 PM   #33
Richard Parker
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Re: 2/5 - A6o in SB Staddle Pot

OP doesn't follow the concept that if he's grouping turn and river together as a single EV calculation, he needs to consider all combinations of turn and river runouts.

Decision tree then becomes more complex.

However, it's pretty obvious that OP just wants to justify his own awesome plays.
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