Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
I am not even going to get into whether you can expect your earlier assumptions to be true. Let's assume they are. The bolded is still not correct. You are mixing up conditional probabilities.
When you're trying to compute the EV of a combined turn/river bluff, you need to take the average over all possible rivers. It may be the case that on THIS river you get a "combined" fold percentage of 77%. But on other rivers you may not. It may turn out to be the case that if you commit to bluffing all rivers, some rivers you will get snapped by a lot more hand combos than you would on this one and the average number of times you get called over all rivers will drag your EV down enough to make the entire bluff line questionable (which could of course be solved by checking some rivers, but then you should have a plan for which rivers to shut down on--and according to the computations you've done here, this should actually be one of them).
No, the bolded was correct. Proof: I assigned him 226 total combos on the turn and assigned him 50 combos that call the river. 50/226 = 24% (off 1 % from the bold due to rounding).
About bluffing different river cards, the best river bluff card would be a
since I block the nut flush. Remember, if my read on villain was that he didn't call too often or too little, I'd aim to have a bluff ~25-30% of the time and would use hands with blocking effects to fill that bluff portion. So A6o would fall into the check/fold range since it has poor blocking effects. Basically, I'd give up some turn bluffs but not others depending on the river card.
But since this entire line was based on my read that he folds too much and is too passive, I'm not giving up as many (or any at all) turn bluffs on the river therefore I followed through though this isn't a great river bluff card. Also, if the river doesn't have helpful blocking effects, it really doesn't matter too much what it is. I.E. as played, any non-diamond river probably doesn't change the EV of my river shove that much.
Results: He folds, claiming to have 6diamond7diamond. He folded pretty fast so I think I believe him.