Friday night

V (MP) seems competent, pretty tight pre but only 1 hour I play with him~40 years old, bought in for 1k. Covers Hero.

Hero (SB) 24 years old, usually plays 1-2, recreative player (~40 hours/month), taking shot on friday night. (1.1k)

EP opens to 20, V calls in MP, folds to H who 3b to 80 with AsKs. Both call.

Flop (245) K92s
So we flop TPTK and bdnfd.
H bets 125, EP folds, V calls

I range him at KQs, AKo, 99, 22 not really K9 (I think he fold pre but might be wrong, not a lot a 3b pot going on), not too many draws he calls here...

Turn (495) 5s
We have the nut flush draw now, we good.
H bets 250, V jams over.

So we need to call 625 more to win like 2.3k pot....

Is it nit to fold here??

I would check ott.

Ap have to call but 92% of the time here he should have a set or some weird AA

3b should be larger. This size doesn't have much fold equity and you are out of position.

I also like a check on the turn with this hand, it's nice to have some AK in your check range and with the two spades this is the better one to have since you don't mind it getting checked through. You are not likely to get 3 streets here with the best hand either.

+3 check turn

He’s going to have 99/22 way more frequently than something like KQ. If the flop is rainbow I may even mix in some checks with AK here as it’s textbook WA/WB, but mostly just sizing down a c-bet.

vs the 4x open and the fact that we're squeezing I don't mind the $80 3bet sizing if we were 100bb eff, even oop, but we're 200bb eff so I'd definitely raise bigger, 100 minimum, maybe even 120.

Can't fold turn as played.

$100 pre oop.

Flop - might check sometimes, but a 3-way bet is fine. Smaller, $100, less protection needed.

Turn - as others have said, check. Once you bet, call the jam. There are 6 combos of AK, 3 of 99 and some other semis like JTss. V is likely folding 22 and other 2-pr combos pre, no?

Unless my math is off, we practically have the pot odds to call even if Villain show us a set. Throw in some spazz hands and it seems like an easy call of the shove.

Good tip all of you to check turn here, thanks !

I snap called (in my head i guess it was obvious I have to call here...) and binked a spade on the river... he had 99!

Your math is off. We need 28% and we’ve got 8 outs versus a set or 17%. It’s really hard for V to have spazz here.