2/5 99 facing c/r from aggro whale - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5 99 facing c/r from aggro whale

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12-23-2019 , 08:33 PM

ggodd

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 242

SB sat down an hour ago, has been VPIPing around 75% and seen to donk lead pot into a few regs who folded to him each time. There was a recent hand where he min 3-bet and called our 4x 4-bet with J2s, called a c-bet on 237r vs our AK and won at showdown.

Turn/river may look thin but extremely standard for me vs this villain type.

We're 7 handed, $1,000 effective.

Hero 9s9c in MP 2/5 live

Hero raises to $15, SB calls

Flop ($35) 8d6d5c
SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls

Turn ($85) Js
SB checks, Hero bets $65, SB calls

River ($215) Jc
SB checks, Hero bets $150, SB raises to $500, Hero??

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12-23-2019 , 10:58 PM

Spanishmoon

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,518

I just cannot see what we’re targeting for value on this river. The draws have all bricked. He’d repping Jx or the gin flop. I suppose we should call against this V but our Bet has set up a gross spot.

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12-23-2019 , 11:24 PM

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

I'd bet bigger every street vs moby dick here
not folding river, esp as you said this guy likes to donk

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12-23-2019 , 11:35 PM

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

i would check call or check fold the river. this guy raised the river. bluffers dont do that often. they may bet big on the river but not raise big on a bluff.

you kept the pot small early only to find yourself in a big pot with a weak hand later on.

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12-24-2019 , 07:30 PM

PokerPlayingGamble

Dispute Unresolved

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

we are in position so we don't have to check fold or check raise, we can just check. I don't mind the river value bet, although I think your sizing is too large. Definitely have to fold to the raise.

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12-25-2019 , 01:45 AM

OmahaDonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 4,932

I'm calling vs the maniac

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12-25-2019 , 02:19 AM

wazz1

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 99

This is a great hand to call with if V really is a maniac. I usually overfold vs river raises at these stacks, but we block a lot of nut straights. I do expect to see Jxdd (all of them) some portion of the time here though. But if he's VPIPing 75% I would assume there's gotta be a lot of bluffs in his range.

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12-25-2019 , 12:14 PM

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

over many decades of playing live i cant recall many people that called a river check raise in no limit win that didnt have the nuts or a giant hand close to it.

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12-25-2019 , 10:01 PM

ggodd

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 242

Results: Hero called and villain tabled Ah7c

If we're beat I'm expecting to see J8, J6, J5 or maybe Jxdd. This villain type will not be able to resist raising sets or a straight on flop or turn. The blockers here make 99 a slightly better call than TT-AA IMO so I went with this one.

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12-25-2019 , 10:11 PM

#10

crsseyed

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,024

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray Zee

over many decades of playing live i cant recall many people that called a river check raise in no limit win that didnt have the nuts or a giant hand close to it.

I always respect your advice/but your games must be very different from mine. This (possible bluff) move is not unusual in my games in the midwest..

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12-25-2019 , 10:46 PM

#11

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

the way I see it with the info you have on him
he's more likely to donk a strong hand otf and even if he doesn't always, his flopped 2p got counterfeited
flopped straights, if not donked, are much more likely to be x/r on flop and turn and less likely when the board pairs
there aren't a lot of Jx that call flop and even Jc is out
fish get to the river more often with straight and flush draws

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12-26-2019 , 04:25 PM

#12

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

if they are check raising the river on bluffs then your whole game plan throughout hands must change. providing they are doing it enough for you to profit from it and where you can recognize it.

otherwise you are basically just calling all bets all the way through a hand when you have tptk.

i tend to play in bigger games where this wont happen very often. if its common in your games then its a different story.

which also makes bet fold the river almost a bad play usually.

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