What am I misunderstanding?

The fact that you are most likely *NOT* stacking KK, but the *BEST CHANCE* involves potting (or more) the turn and shoving the river as OP was planning to do.

You're not getting turn and river value out of KK with a standard value bet/value bet, so you take a line that looks extremely bluffy on a static board where you have very few value hands and villain blocks the most likely hand you would take such a line with for value (AK).

Hence exploit/max value.

So I didn't misunderstand anything. You think KK will stack off here a significant enough of the time to make it better than betting a callable amount.

Also, you shouldn't be concerned with what the best chance of stacking a specific hand is. You should be concerned about making the most money vs their range. I actually think betting over pot here is terrible. Villains range is weak, they're OOP, and we have a bunch of nutted hands that they don't. In these spots we can bet small with impunity.

What he’s saying is if you bet like 1/2 pot or something, KK isn’t going to call because it looks like you have an A but if you bet the pot or even overbet, it looks more like a bluff. Additionally, if you bet a small amount and V actually has an A, it makes it harder to get all the money in by the river, so as you said, we’re not worried about a specific holding but you’re going to leave a bunch of money on the table when V has like Ax (something he can have like 30+ combos of pretty easily) so you can get a little bit of money out of KK (something he can only have 6 combos of)

He was referencing targeting 2 hands. KK and AK. I also doubt a decent reg bets KK on this flop, but anyway.

I disagree that we are leaving a lot on the table vs their AX. I don't think much if any of their AX is going to get all the money in, especially a decent reg who should realize we have a ton of nut combos. I'd rather bet smallish on turn with the nut advantage and go bigger on rivers when their range is almost exclusively AX, they don't want to get bluffed off a big pot, and they won't have to worry about another street.

Normally I don’t like 4x btn open strategies. This deep though, this is fine. I expect dudes who use the 4x sizing will be 3 betting a ton from sb v btn; I like calling to keep his dominated hands in.

Flop, love a call. We are going to have a lot of weaker hands, he’s not incentivized to barrel too much air, and conversely he should feel pretty good putting in more money with big aces on the turn. The one argument to raising now is that smarter players can level themselves into lighter call downs against a flop raise and barrel barrel than a turn raise.

Turn is too ambitious. What bluffs are in your range here? If you floated T8dd and turned open ended, wouldn’t you rather bet like 125 and fold out his K hi and Q hi cheaply?



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One more alternate line: check turn, bomb river if checked to (or raise if bet into)


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I've actually thinking about this concept - in a vacuum 2/5 game, should we be opening EP-MP $20 and LP $15?

That's a valid question to be asking about in regards to would I want to use this size to bluff. When you put it like that, it makes sense that it's a better to use a smaller sizing instead of a polarized sizing, but it's also a double edged sword in that our value bets have to be smaller. Wouldn't sizing be more or less indifferent?

My friend is an avid Poker Snowie user and one observation he made is that Snowie actually opens smaller from EP than LP. In practice, though, people suck at poker and call too much, so we want to avoid multi-way spots OOP with linear hand ranges (which is common when you have a strong range: you get to the river and you have TPTK or overpair), so we like raising a little more from OOP in practice to exploit our strong hand range and defend against excessive calls.

As far as postflop, yes, sort of. When against smart opposition, we really want to think about the bluff portion of our range. When we have a lot of bluffs, we’d want to bet big to balance it. When we have few, we’d want to bet small to balance it.

Now, it’s conceivable that we can take a bombing strat here to get his aces to stack off. We’d want some creative bluffs in there too, like 64s or T9s.


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I only do 3x from the BTN, never the CO. People also respond poorly to 3x and will very easily get out of line from the blinds.

agree with jdr there is no need to open 4x otb.

not sure how theoretically correct what i'm about to say is but against ip cbet 1/3 range otf you should probably raise with your 9's and 4's atleast some of the time. bluffs can include jt or 45 w bdfd.

In that case does it even matter if we just 4x every position?

This is super helpful, thank you.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I have no idea why so many people think big bets look like bluffs.

I have no idea, but when people stop calling my big bets with marginal holdings, I’ll let you know.

Maybe it's an American thing.

Op what happened?

Villain folded

I wouldn't lose much sleep over it. He probably had KQo.

Something like that, yeah, I'm sure he's c betting his whole range, which is much wider than the standard 2/5 live 3 bet range

I think most villains with AK carry on here. This looks like TT-KK giving up.

I think I bet small or I check behind on the turn, and let him stab river.

I think your best bluffs in this spot are going to be hands like 98s and T9s, not really sure since those might in theory have too much sdv. We will have some reasonably equity when called. I guess it helps to block sets but I doubt 99 is going to bet flop and then check turn but I suppose it’s possible. Bottom pair often makes for a nice bluff on these types of boards but I don’t think we have any 4x given the preflop.

I guess I understand johnny's line but don't necessarily think this is a great board for it. Its rainbow with hardly any draws at all, so even if V holds AK, he has to wonder if top/top is any good. I prefer this type of overbet with a set when there are recognizable draws out there that we could have so that there is a higher likelihood that V will call off.

Totally agree to go for max value with this hand...I just don't think that an overbet is the best size given V's likely range. I think I would bet $150 on the turn and then maybe size up on the river if he is still tagging along.

But what about stacking KK!?!?!? /s

still illiterate /not sarc