Reads: Mid aged guy who played the following hand, raised QQ pre flop, bet flop pretty big on a K-X-X flop multiway, got called. Bet a blank turn pretty large, was check/raised and folded. I mention this hand since it's more standard/common to check back turn with QQ there. He has limp/called J9s in MP, so probably a bit loose pre flop. He once flatted a pre flop raise with KJo in the SB multiway, the BB (a super LAG) 3-bet folded to villain who 4-bet shoved for about $300 (losing to AQ).

My image is tighter than most players at the table due to being carddead for a little while.

One limper in MP and I limp on the button with 97. Villain makes it $25 from the SB. $350 effective vs him after his raise. Folds to me. Since I'm getting 2-1 and position, I call. If OOP, I'd fold.

Flop: KJ6. Villain bets $50 into $60, leading $300 behind. Hero?

Kind of a tough spot. V has taken very strong line so far. People generally don't raise as a bluff out of the small blind. Because of this, I think your fold equity is lower than if this were an open from MP or HJ/CO and you flatted button.

If you just call, it is likely he is betting most turns. I would normally never fold this, but because I'd think my fold equity was low and my implied odds were not great, I may get away here.*

* Unless I'm stuck. Then I am probably jamming.

I will let more people post, then do some math to see if shoving might be higher EV than folding, then post results.

The limp-call from the button with 97s is just ass. Fold pre imo. How can you have a "solid" image making plays like this?

Question I have:

If there are 4 limpers ahead of you, are you better off limping something like 97s or 98s on the button or raising to, realistically, 8-10 BB's to isolate?

I understand TAG is all about being just that, tight and aggressive, but don't SC's and suited gappers play better in cheap multiway pots? What is wrong with limping and using your positional advantage to see a 1 BB flop? If there is only 1-2 limpers I will usually raise to 5 BB - but with 4 limpers already, overlimping seems the safest to me.

Please someone explain if I am off base or what.

On flop, just call. Villain seems really strong and is probably not folding if we bink turn. Raising this flop is not profitable if we don't think villain is folding much, and I don't believe he is.

The call preflop may be a slight mathematical mistake but I don't think it's horrible, especially if we put villain on a very strong range. In general, limping 97s should be profitable for you on the button, but with 1 limper a raise should be even more profitable.

Oops sorry I didn't see it was a limp call. So the initial limp is fine though? And just generally fold to the raise?

No, the initial limp is not fine. Even if a limp is profitable, a raise in this spot is more profitable. We should always be trying to take the most profitable line. For instance, limping Aces on the button would definitely be profitable but raising with them would be more profitable.

Sorry totally confused my threads here. I agree - with only one limper if you are going to play 97s then definitely raise it up PF.

Grind, how "slight" of a mistake is that? Seems like a fairly large mistake to chase a 9 high flush for $50 into $60. If we brick the turn, which is far more likely than hitting, we are looking at a $120+ bet on the turn which we simply can't call.

We are getting 2.2-1 direct odds.

Assuming we are only going to get to draw to 1 card:

we are a little more than 4-1 to hit our flush on the turn. We need to make about an extra $100 every time we make our flush to make this a profitable call.

Of course, it is never quite that simple. Sometimes we will make the flush and it will be a second best hand (villain has NFD or QsTs). Sometimes we will make our flush and get outdrawn on the river. On the other hand, sometimes villain will check turn and we can either win with a bet, or get a free river card. Sometimes villain will put in a lot more than $100 with a worse hand when we make our flush. Sometimes villain will not bet enough on the turn, making it profitable for us to draw to the flush again on the river.

Tough to do the math on all of this, though I would say it is a marginal spot, probably close to neutral EV between calling or folding to the flop bet.

Raise pre, as played call flop

Each decision is independent from one another. The slight mathematical mistake I was referring to was the call preflop. Should be ok to call $15 there. Calling $20 is too much. So a $5 mistake, IMO.

Chasing the flush draw is not necessarily a mistake in this instance because we are generally going to get paid if we hit. Also, whether or not calling a turn bet of $120 is profitable or not depends on the turn card. For instance, if the turn is a blank ace then we will need to fold to a $120 turn bet (which is ok, that doesn't necessarily mean the flop call was not profitable). However, if a blank 5 comes out that gives us a few additional outs which should be enough to make this profitable if we expect villain is not folding many rivers (which I don't expect him to given the pot size).

If 15$ is the largest amount that we can profitably call, then calling 20$ is not a 5$ mistake

I guess you could argue that is less than a $5 mistake, because if someone were to give you a free $5 for calling that would take this decision from unprofitable to profitable. Please feel free to expand on your thoughts if you disagree though.

GPAD, if villain were to shove allin for 375 preflop and we called, would it be a $360 (375-15) mistake? No, because we still have equity.

You can't just equate calling 5$ more over the profitable calling amount to losing 5$.

I ranged him at pretty strong pre flop, something like 99+, A10s+, KQo+.

I figured he's betting 100% of that range on the flop.

I figured its questionable whether calling flop is profitable. He's probably betting A10 and JJ/QQ again on the turn, based on the previous hand I posted that he played.

What about shoving? Let's say he folds anything less than K-X to a shove. He's got 6 combos of 99, 6 combos of JJ, 6 combos of QQ, 15 combos of AJ, 15 combos of AQ, which is 48 combos that fold. He's got 6 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of 1010, 14 combos of AK, 12 combos of KQo, 1 combo of AJ, and 1 combo of AQ. That's 40 combos that call.

So he folds 54.5% of the time and calls the rest. When he calls, I have about 30% equity (downgraded since his calling range includes better flush draws and draws to boats).

EV ship = .545*$110 - .455 (.3*$410 - .7*$350) = 60 - 55.51 = +$4.49

Wow that's close...

Results: I shove, he doesn't take too long and folds AKo face up.

Grunch

With 350~ behind I love shoving here. There is def (some) fold equity.
Likely not getting paid if spade comes on turn.
Gii and let it play iut

Agree with above posts. Raise/fold pre. Shove flop c-bet

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What are you repping when you limp-call OTB and then make a >pot-sized shove on the flop?

KJ, KQ, 66, K6s, combo straight/flush draws.

you should rethink this

are you saying you would overlimp KQ otb then make a pot size shove over his cbet with it?

you also shouldnt have KJ/66/K6s in a shoving range either

I think call and semibluff are both ok, but semibluff may be better. Since he's firing 100% of his range (a semi-bluff should show profit because we get enough folds, and we have enough equity when called)


On the other calling may be break-evenish, the reason is that a lot of the time if we hit the turn, with your read that he double barrels light for value means we will make that double barrel when we hit. The bad side of this is that he has shown a tendency to bet fold here, so we don't have necessarily enough implied odds guaranteed, because of how light he could be, outside of the turn double barrel.


Think I would just make it 150-200 and then call off if he shoves rather than just ship it on the flop. It will look too much like a draw/combodraw which is what we have. And sometimes we save money because he will sometimes just call, then we can either get there or check back the turn for a free card.