Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
It’s hard to judge the flop play in the example hand without knowing more. Once he peels the 3b (obviously terrible), calling one street with bottom pair is arguably fine (again, it might not be, but we don’t know enough about hero).
I think your assumptions wrt Vs ranges narrowing are wrong (and would recommend looking at the hands that make up 50-80th percentile to see how bad those hands are), but in any event if you think he’s calling our 3b with like 70+% of hands then it’s absolutely criminal not to 3b 88 here. Wrt flop play, when someone suggests x/f, it is implied that they are using assumptions on Vs range narrowing that are different than yours. Using your assumptions, we would obviously not x/f. Either way, 3b is much better than calling pre.
The reasons for bb coming along being bad have to do with the types of hands we generally flop (2nd/3rd pair etc) and how much value they have with 2 players vs 3, given our position and the ways the action is likely to unfold (folding the best hand a lot and giving too many free cards to 2 players with a bunch of live overs). Put another way, our equity realization will be substantially worse with bb coming in behind (not to mention that we will be squeezed semi frequently by bb who is facing a very wide btn open and weak sb flat (bc we are incentivized to 3b wide here)).
Pretty certain J-4 would be in the 50-80%.
Things I think you’re overestimating:
Our 3!’s ability to take down this hand pre.
How much more difficult it is to play this hand 3 handed.
Our ability to get to showdown or make V muck his hand with only 150bb’s.
How often bb really squeezes here.
The price that bb would set in reality when he squeezes here. (Worst case scenario we fold losing 3.8 bigs. Not a big deal.)
Things I think you’re underestimating:
The ability to play this hand with better SPR 3-way or heads up.
Our ability to get to showdown without committing our stack.
Our ability to get paid off big when we do hit our sets.
How BTN lagtard V will have a harder time firing ATC against two opponents.
How a x/r on certain flops will look more convincing to BTN and bb if we’re multiway on the flop.
How profitable x/c all the way down on reasonable boards can be all the times that bb folds.