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2/5 88 River Decision 2/5 88 River Decision

09-22-2019 , 11:41 AM
2/5, 9 handed, $700 effective. Villain is a complete unknown who just moved from the must move game and folded his first two hands.

OTTH

Villain limps UTG, folded around to us in SB with 8♦️ 8♣️, we raise to $30 and only UTG calls.

Flop ($65): K♦️ Q♦️ 2♦️. X-x.

Turn ($65): K♣️. X, villain bets $30, we call.

River ($125): K♠️. We x, villain bets $150. Hero?
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 02:35 PM
Why raise this preflop? You're going to put yourself in stupid spots OOP over and over again for no good reason.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Why raise this preflop? You're going to put yourself in stupid spots OOP over and over again for no good reason.
Over more than one limp pre/if there's only one limp pre and it's a station that gets sticky pre, I'm all for limping along. However, 88 seems too strong to just be limping along in this spot.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 03:36 PM
Nothing really wrong how you played the hand. Since you have no info on villian I would fold based on population reads I don't see many live players that overbet bluff river.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 04:37 PM
There's more to preflop poker than hand strength.

You could be ahead on the river, but I don't see him betting often on the turn with 33-77.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
There's more to preflop poker than hand strength.

You could be ahead on the river, but I don't see him betting often on the turn with 33-77.
Exactly. The playability of 88 OOP is terrible.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 06:27 PM
So what's the lowest pair you're raising in this spot? TT? JJ?
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 06:48 PM
AA-66,AKs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo is my SB raise range against 1 limper that is UTG. I notice people limping range is stronger UTG and wont really fold
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 07:02 PM
Flop is a nightmare. Check fold 4th and 5th. You are set mining. You whiffed.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 07:11 PM
Think pre is fine.

While the flop hits Hero raising range, it also hits an UTG L/C range, so I like checking.

Turn - While the V could be building a pot with AdXx, there are also many combos of QX/TT/99 that beat, so I'd let it go.

As played, I'd fold.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 07:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
So what's the lowest pair you're raising in this spot? TT? JJ?
The lowest pp, Yes probably TT. But I'd raise any 2 broadway cards, and a mix of other speculative hands.

1) Playability of hands post flop
2) Ability to rep certain hands post flop due to being the raiser
3) Showing up with hands that you can win a big pot with because you have a hand that nobody expects because you were the preflop raiser

Are all more important than raising just because you probably have the best hand preflop.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-22-2019 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
The lowest pp, Yes probably TT. But I'd raise any 2 broadway cards, and a mix of other speculative hands.

1) Playability of hands post flop
2) Ability to rep certain hands post flop due to being the raiser
3) Showing up with hands that you can win a big pot with because you have a hand that nobody expects because you were the preflop raiser

Are all more important than raising just because you probably have the best hand preflop.
I just don't understand why raising 88 here is too loose, when it's standard to open 88 UTG. Is SB really that much different from UTG in this spot?
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 12:53 AM
I won't speak for Mike, but you currently know less about this player than I would know if he had just sat down at my table. I suspect Mike would know more, too. Since you didn't share many of the details around him, you probably didn't consider them of any importance.

For example, I'd want to know what the max buyin is. How did he bring his chips over? How many and what denomination of chips beyond $5 are there? How did he stack them? How didn't he count out his chips for the call? How did he look at his cards? Has he had to go back to look at them again?

All this information tells me about his experience level, how organized his thinking likely is, and even if he is loose or tight. While I could be wrong with the initial impression, it is at least a starting point.

The difference between poker players is the amount of information they process before making a decision. Both Phil Ivey and I know the "standard" is to fold 72o pf.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 01:52 AM
We already know villain is terrible because they open-limped UTG. Raising a single from the small blind with a range like {88+, AQs+, AQo+} prints money for old men coffee the world over.

I like the check on this flop. Having checked the flop, we should fold the turn.

Do we think the villain would play 77 this way? If not, then we should fold.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 02:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
The lowest pp, Yes probably TT. But I'd raise any 2 broadway cards, and a mix of other speculative hands.
So you're raising QTo here but not 88? LOL. Cool strategy.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
The lowest pp, Yes probably TT. But I'd raise any 2 broadway cards, and a mix of other speculative hands.

1) Playability of hands post flop
2) Ability to rep certain hands post flop due to being the raiser
3) Showing up with hands that you can win a big pot with because you have a hand that nobody expects because you were the preflop raiser

Are all more important than raising just because you probably have the best hand preflop.
At some point, you ought to exeunt your own echo chamber.

You raise 88 pre bc it neatly fits into a sound range that is a clear equity favorite to an utg limp-calling range (fish) pretty much period. The playability of exactly 88 is of zero concern because it satisfies parts 2) and 3) quite nicely and makes money hand over fist when it flops sets. If playability actually mattered most to a range, you could include all kinds of suited connectors and even lose hands like AJo et al. Of course; as you add in more and more playability-rich hands, you conversely sink that range quickly to become an equity underdog to even the fishiest utg-calling range/you have too many hands/you miss too many flops on average by way of being so wide. All of these things are unacceptable loss leaders that are ultra-magnified OOP.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 07:47 AM
You guys are full of so many absolutes its ridiculous. "We already know villain is terrible because they open-limped UTG"?

Im fairly sure that I'm the biggest winner in my room and I have no doubt in my mind that I am in the top 3 winners in my room. I open limp hands UTG. You guys think anyone who does things you dont do is a fish and its laughable.

Notice that I didnt say that raising this hand is terrible. I just asked why OP raised it.

The fact that a hand is an equity favorite preflop isnt that much of an advantage if we arent all in preflop if we are OOP with a hand like 88 that is going to be very hard to play profitably post flop. Raising it is OK, but I wouldn't do it very often.

Yes, Id rather raise QT in this spot than 88 any day.

I dont just make this **** up on the fly. I try new things and track my profit / loss with them. I dump the **** that doesnt work and keep the things that do. I have a play where I raise to $40 from the blinds after 3+ limpers with a wide range of non premium and speculative hands. Hands like QT is right there in that range and you wouldnt believe how profitable Ive been over the last 2000 hours doing this.

Lets follow some logic here. Ive been saying in the win rate thread recently that win rate ceilings are a lot higher than most people think. For 2/5 Id say its definitely higher than 12BB/hr.

1) You think nobody can win at that high a rate playing 2/5
2) You think limping UTG is a fish move
3) I limp UTG
4) I do quite a few other things that everyone here thinks is terrible
4) I win more than you think is possible

Maybe you are wrong? Maybe there are many many ways to play outside the box that is profitable?

Honestly I'm quite fed up with the arguing here as opposed to exchanging ideas. I basically stopped posting hands a long time ago and Im just about ready to give up this site altogether so you probably wont have to deal with me much longer. It's not productive for anyone if nobody really wants to listen to anything that they dont already agree with.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 09-23-2019 at 07:55 AM.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 07:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
You guys are full of so many absolutes its ridiculous. "We already know villain is terrible because they open-limped UTG"?

Im fairly sure that I'm the biggest winner in my room and I have no doubt in my mind that I am in the top 3 winners in my room. I open limp hands UTG. You guys think anyone who does things you dont do is a fish and its laughable.

Notice that I didnt say that raising this hand is terrible. I just asked why OP raised it.

The fact that a hand is an equity favorite preflop isnt that much of an advantage if we arent all in preflop if we are OOP with a hand like 88 that is going to be very hard to play profitably post flop. Raising it is OK, but I wouldn't do it very often,

Yes, Id rather raise QT in this spot than 88 any day.

Lets follow some logic here. Ive been saying in the win rate thread recently that win rate ceilings are a lot higher than most people think. For 2/5 Id say its definitely higher than 12BB/hr.

1) You think nobody can win at that high a rate playing 2/5
2) You think limping UTG is a fish move
3) I limp UTG
4) I do quite a few other things that everyone here thinks is terrible
4) I win more than you think is possible

Maybe you are wrong? Maybe there are many many ways to play outside the box that is profitable?
you're beating a dead horse

we start out with math and it makes us money

watching and adjusting takes time and effort
something this generation isn't willing to put in
much better to bury our heads in our phones
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 08:10 AM
BTW...I think a good player can raise profitably preflop in a spot like this HU with massive range if they play well post flop. That doesn't mean they should though.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
I just don't understand why raising 88 here is too loose, when it's standard to open 88 UTG. Is SB really that much different from UTG in this spot?
You look at it from the wrong perspective. Its not about 88 isnt in front of a random limping range: its about playability with a mid PP in a raised pot being out of position. Small to mid PP is some of the hardest hands to play as the preflop aggressor OOP, because you nearly always face many overcards and the real good cards you like to hit for your hand is your two set cards. Your hand is just capped to staying as a weak one pair hand on a high percentage of board runouts.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
2/5, 9 handed, $700 effective. Villain is a complete unknown who just moved from the must move game and folded his first two hands.

OTTH

Villain limps UTG, folded around to us in SB with 8♦️ 8♣️, we raise to $30 and only UTG calls.

Flop ($65): K♦️ Q♦️ 2♦️. X-x.

Turn ($65): K♣️. X, villain bets $30, we call.

River ($125): K♠️. We x, villain bets $150. Hero?
your prob good, but honestly you can fold here, you still have Qx and JJ-99 as better calls so I'm prob calling TT+ Qx, that's me though as I'm raising my checked back Kx on the turn against LLSNL randoms though against good players/ regs I like the call.

Also like the raise pre- taking the pot down rake-free pre- is nice plus we are uncapped if called.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci
You look at it from the wrong perspective. Its not about 88 isnt in front of a random limping range: its about playability with a mid PP in a raised pot being out of position. Small to mid PP is some of the hardest hands to play as the preflop aggressor OOP, because you nearly always face many overcards and the real good cards you like to hit for your hand is your two set cards. Your hand is just capped to staying as a weak one pair hand on a high percentage of board runouts.
Exactly
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 10:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Yes, Id rather raise QT in this spot than 88 any day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci
You look at it from the wrong perspective. Its not about 88 isnt in front of a random limping range: its about playability with a mid PP in a raised pot being out of position. Small to mid PP is some of the hardest hands to play as the preflop aggressor OOP, because you nearly always face many overcards and the real good cards you like to hit for your hand is your two set cards. Your hand is just capped to staying as a weak one pair hand on a high percentage of board runouts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Exactly
Yah because flopping Q-hi with nothing but a backdoor straight draw is a much better outcome.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
You guys are full of so many absolutes its ridiculous. "We already know villain is terrible because they open-limped UTG"?

Im fairly sure that I'm the biggest winner in my room and I have no doubt in my mind that I am in the top 3 winners in my room. I open limp hands UTG. You guys think anyone who does things you dont do is a fish and its laughable..
It's called Bayes' Theorem, dude. When a player does something that a multitude of terrible players do but comparatively few decent players do, the likelihood that they are a bad player increases dramatically.

Of course, our Bayesian prior, with no data about a new player, is that the likelihood that they are a loser is 95%.
2/5 88 River Decision Quote
09-23-2019 , 11:30 AM
When we raise 88 we are not looking for playability postflop.
We are raising PF for value.
We win money because it’s +EV.
We win money when we flop or turn a set.
We win money because it have showdown value.

I think it’s on the border line between overlimping or ISO raising.
Vs a passive player it plays really well as an ISO once we can see and win many showdowns.

And only one more thing...
The one thing that all poker players have in common is that we all, at some point, think we are the best player on the room.
Many times the variance helps us to continue thinking that we are the best player in the whole world.

That’s what makes Poker profitable.

Being humble and recognizing that we have alot to learn is what makes us evolve as player and person.

Salut!
2/5 88 River Decision Quote

      
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