Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
No offense intended. You’re absolutely better than me and you have more guts too.
But I’m sincerely curious: What did you think you leaned by the turn?
No offence taken. I’m actually pretty difficult to offend. I found this hand hilarious because I’m having a really hard time winning lately when I’m way ahead and the money is in. Poker is ridiculous.
What I learned by the turn: When Main V cbets this flop I instantly weight him more toward pocket pairs than broadway cards, because cbetting this rainbow flop into 4 players with Ax or KQ makes zero sense.
When side V calls the flop bet as well his range is still super wide, 1st because his preflop range is wide to begin with, but also because he’s getting a good price to continue with lots of hands like one pair with a gutshot, etc.
When the ace of spades hits the turn and it gets checked to me I’m very confident Main V has a hand like 77 (less likely because I have a blocker), 88, 9x (less likely again, but I’m really not worried about A-9 because he is extremely unlikely to check that turn), 10’s and jacks.
Side V is the more likely player to have ace here on the turn, you are right about that, which was also part of why I went $125 on the turn. If Side V has an ace, I think he’s aggressive enough to try and isolate me by raising to put me all in and get Main V out of the equation. When he only calls the $125 (which surprised me honestly) I narrow his range to BDFD with a pair and still gutshots with a pair (but I’m really not too worried about the pair being an ace). He’s a loose player with a wide range on all streets so he’s less likely to have an ace than it might seem to you. He also bluffs and gets aggressive when he senses weakness (from what I’ve seen/heard), and he didn’t do that here. I’m pretty sure that Side V had spades here as well, and a river spade probably would have been very bad for me. He also could have had 10’s, but my line is strong enough by the river that I’m confident he’ll fold that with a player behind him still.
When Main V just calls the $125 turn bet I could sense that he didn’t love it, and my range for him narrowed to pretty much exactly 77, 88, 9x, 10’s and I thought jacks were less likely at that point. Don’t get me wrong, I thought if he called my river shove, it would be 10’s or jacks and I lose, but it still makes sense to do in my opinion because if he folds even 30-35% of the time it’s worth the risk at that point in the hand. I’m confident SB is folding after this river and I shove. The other huge benefit of the 6 pairing on the river is that I now chop with all of Main V’s potential 9x, and shoving puts him in a really tough spot to make the correct decision with a 9. Obviously, if I get him off a chop here it’s huge profit for me, a few extra hundred dollars.
So I guess to answer your question, it’s not so much about being sure that I was right, it’s about being sure that I was putting him in a really tough spot with the hands that I was very confident he had. When you start putting opponents to very difficult decisions you’re able to see how they react to it, and sometimes induce mistakes.
The difficult thing for him is that he has double blocker for me having a straight, so if he doesn’t believe I have an ace on the turn, my line looks like 2pair, sets or FOS. He was actually very close to making a ridiculously good call.
