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2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM 2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM

11-16-2017 , 10:15 AM
Hey all,

I've been putting this hand off for a while, but would like to see some different thought processes as we go through this hand.

V1: Definitely a LAG bordering on sLAG. Had the rec player to his immediate left, so he moved 4 seats to the rec's left (smart move IMO cause it doesn't alert the rec at all). He has been ISO'ing the rec plenty.

Hero has been switching between TAG and LAG.

OTTH:

Rec limps utg, V (750) r25 in CO, folds to hero in the BB. Hero (covers) has 78 in the BB. Hero?
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 10:21 AM
Fold>3bet>call
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 10:22 AM
obv flat if we want the rec in, 3bet if not
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 10:29 AM
For the sake of the PAHWM I'm going to go call.

In reality I fold here more then anything, I don't want to play 87s OOP against a LAG. Depending on the situation might have a few raises in my range also but it's going to be rare to never.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 10:41 AM
I think we are marginally deep enough to call, despite being oop. 3-betting and getting called (or raised) in both spots would be nasty. Folding is ok if u think playing this type of opponent oop will not be worth the call.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 10:44 AM
is a SLAG really gonna fold to a 3bet????

So if we hit here, we prob get paid off, and if we flat it's almost guaranteed the rec will call. If he raises obv we have to fold.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 10:59 AM
Fold. I guess you can flat, but I'd much rather have this in position.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 11:07 AM
fold
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 11:28 AM
With a speculative hand like this, I don't mind calling if we close the action, or there was a chain of callers to give us nice IOs, but as we have neither here, I don't like a call OOP.

While V is probably pretty wide here and ripe for 3-betting, I'd really prefer a PP or an ace blocker in my light 3-bet range.

I fold.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
With a speculative hand like this, I don't mind calling if we close the action, or there was a chain of callers to give us nice IOs, but as we have neither here, I don't like a call OOP.

While V is probably pretty wide here and ripe for 3-betting, I'd really prefer a PP or an ace blocker in my light 3-bet range.

I fold.
I agree with Garick here. Out of position, I'm looking to 3! hands with high card value and some coordination that block a lot V's iso range. In position, I'm more apt to 3! suited connectors. I think i'm going to 3! any non-wheel PP from either position in this scenario though. That may be a leak I guess?
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 12:16 PM
Kinda depends on Villains Fold to 3bet percentage. If we 3bet to like 80 were risking 75 to win a pot of 107 so we need it to get through like 70 percent of the time if we never win at showdown. In the event we're called against villains open range we prob have ~40% equity but were OOP so we might realize only 30-35% of that. For the sake of math let's call it 35. The calculation goes 70% = %wewin*%hecalls+(1-%hecalls). Plugging in 35 for %wewin and doing math gives us 46.15 for %hecalls. This means if he calls 46.15% of the time of less, we are +EV. That decision is a judgement call on what you perceive him to think of your play. If he sees you as a tight 3better, then it'll work more than if he sees you as a LAG. For the sake of simplicity of math I assumed that the limper never calls you're 3bet, which is not 100% accurate, so to account for that you should lower your estimate of the amount of folds you're gonna get from villain. For example if you think he's gonna call exactly 45% of the time you should just fold, but if it's significantly less than that (like 38%) then it's still a squeeze.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 12:38 PM
If the rec is the mark, kinda need his stack size. Call and flop well probably an ok plan if rec has some chips, o/w I fold.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 12:41 PM
I love suited connectors here, and play them more than I should.

I still fold here because position is key, and in your description, clearly one of your V is position aware and I am not crazy about playing this one OOP.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irunsobad
Kinda depends on Villains Fold to 3bet percentage. If we 3bet to like 80 were risking 75 to win a pot of 107 so we need it to get through like 70 percent of the time if we never win at showdown. In the event we're called against villains open range we prob have ~40% equity but were OOP so we might realize only 30-35% of that.
I think the post flop situation is worse then you suggest. It isn't just a question of realizing our equity on the existing pot but how much more money goes into the pot. Hero is going to end up with a lot of mediocre top and middle pair hands. If a lot of money goes into the pot hero is probably in trouble. That puts hero in a lot of situations to win a small pot or lose a big one, which cuts into the profitability even more.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irunsobad
Kinda depends on Villains Fold to 3bet percentage. If we 3bet to like 80 were risking 75 to win a pot of 107 so we need it to get through like 70 percent of the time if we never win at showdown. In the event we're called against villains open range we prob have ~40% equity but were OOP so we might realize only 30-35% of that. For the sake of math let's call it 35. The calculation goes 70% = %wewin*%hecalls+(1-%hecalls). Plugging in 35 for %wewin and doing math gives us 46.15 for %hecalls. This means if he calls 46.15% of the time of less, we are +EV. That decision is a judgement call on what you perceive him to think of your play. If he sees you as a tight 3better, then it'll work more than if he sees you as a LAG. For the sake of simplicity of math I assumed that the limper never calls you're 3bet, which is not 100% accurate, so to account for that you should lower your estimate of the amount of folds you're gonna get from villain. For example if you think he's gonna call exactly 45% of the time you should just fold, but if it's significantly less than that (like 38%) then it's still a squeeze.
This is not how it works
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 01:22 PM
what is going on in this thread? call or 3bet ainec, folding is bad
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing
This is not how it works
where exactly did I go wrong?
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing
what is going on in this thread? call or 3bet ainec, folding is bad
Why is folding bad with marginal holdings OOP? You aren't getting great odds to call here, there is another player to act, and your holdings are pretty bleh, unless you get a flop like 6/9/10r..
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
Why is folding bad with marginal holdings OOP? You aren't getting great odds to call here, there is another player to act, and your holdings are pretty bleh, unless you get a flop like 6/9/10r..
if we assume 5x is his standard iso sizing then we aren't getting bad odds seeing as this is from a wide range.

78s is not a marginal holding, it plays brilliantly.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 02:06 PM
calling is ok. folding is ok too. more inclined to 3bet if rec player called in between us and the lag villain.

rec stack size is really relevant. also his tendencies... does he tend to limp/call utg? will he limp/fold? i rather not go heads up vs villain. will he ever limp/rr utg? that would be burning money for us

if lag villain is actually a good lag and tough player then i dont mind just folding.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing
folding is bad
I tend to disagree with many of the "fold pre" comments in this forum but there is no way its bad
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SevTooOff
I tend to disagree with many of the "fold pre" comments in this forum but there is no way its bad
it is bad if your definition of bad is losing ev
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 03:59 PM
Pretty easy fold simply because we're in the worst post-flop position in a potential 3-way pot.

What do you guys do with JTs+ and gapped suited broadways here?
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-16-2017 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing
if we assume 5x is his standard iso sizing then we aren't getting bad odds seeing as this is from a wide range.

78s is not a marginal holding, it plays brilliantly.
78s is pretty marginal, especailly OOP against potentially two players. Even if we assume UTG folds after our call/raise, are we just playing fit or fold at this stage? $20 more for not even closing the action and there are very few flops we are going to like to see from what is likely going to be a cbet from the raiser.

There are worse hands to do that, but I am curious again, why it is specifically bad, -EV, or whatever you want to define it as fold = bad idea.
2/5 - 500max - 78cc in BB - PAHWM Quote
11-17-2017 , 12:36 AM
Okay, so lots of folds, which was definitely one of my options. I dont hate calling either because the rec had around 400 and was definitely calling if I flatted. I also like the idea of 3! pocket pairs, ace blockers, and cards with high value.

So I chose to 3! cause I wanted to be aggressive this time vs a wider opening range. I felt like I would net some folds, but more calls considering this player type. Keep in mind it was the first time I 3! him though.

OTTH:

Rec limps utg, V (750) r25 in CO, folds to hero in the BB. Hero (covers) has 78 in the BB. Hero rr80, rec folds, V calls.

Flop (170) : K 8 3 -- Hero?
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