Hero covers TAG- been pretty quiet at this table so far since the there are 3 300 bb stacks to my direct left. Has 4! Very small once in this hand: 3/4 limps including the 3 Deep stacks to my left. Hero makes it 45 in the BB. TAG utg limper 3! to 145, hero raises to 345, villain calls. Hero cbets 390 on the KJ4r and villain folds quickly. Raised a couple pots in position and won without showdown after moving from seat 7 to seat 2 to get the majority of the deeper stacks on my right.

Villain BB 1700: TAG old white guy who seems like he would only 3! With JJ+,AK. Just playing his cards-- wearing casino apparel

An LP limps, hero raises to 30 on the button with AhKh, villain 3! To 105, hero calls.

Flop is T84hh, villain bets 160, hero ?

Based on what I've seen from this guy this sizing is KK+. When he 3x+ 3! + the larger than his average cb I think he shows up here with exclusively KK+ Every time.

You gotta ask yourself, is he able to fold an over pair? If yes, Reraise and try to take the pot down now.

If no, and you just call and a H hits the turn, he's slowing down and the action might end there, so IO might not be so great. I might even fold here bc of that.

H hits the turn and the action dies, or H does't hit the turn, he double barrels 300plus and you don't have odds to call if he has KK+ here.

Does your casino let you run it twice? If so, then I would shove all in since youd get 4 cards to make your flush. Plus, your villain just might fold.

If not, i stilll think its a call because not only do you have hearts but any A, Q, J, 10, 7, 6, or 5 can be scare cards if your V holds KK, since all of these cards comete a straight draw (minus the A which would make an overpair to KK). He would likely check if any scare card hits allowing you to see a free turn card. You also could steal the pot with a monster bet on the river if a scare card hits knowing his range is capped to one pair.

I think you are in a great position here and cant fold the flop

Well played up to this Point.

It`s a rather easy flat here. Raising seems good, but we have to belevie that he would fold QQ+ here. There are a lot of good turns (Any heart + any A,Q,J,9 and possibly ten) that either give us the best Hand or will make his overpairs shut down to give us a free turn or a good Chance to turn our Hand into a bluff.

Looks good so far. Let's call and see a turn.

i think it's a mistake to think he can only have kk+. you raised from button so he could be 3 betting you light and ak suited is bottom of your range when you flat. You also block AA and KK. I'm raising here and if he shoves calling it off.

Calling is still ok because you're in position

I agree ranging him KK+ is a mistake. If we feel he 3! JJ+ I think that's still his range otf. Strictly from a combinatoric perspective With our blockers QQ, JJ are far more likely. I get that our table read feels different.

Nonetheless we are getting a hair under 2.4:1 and vs JJ+ we are just over a 2.4:1 dog drawing 1 card. So against that range we need at least a little implied odds. Accounting for the times we hit a case A or K and lose a bet we need a little more io to make a profitable call.

If he has QQ and we bink a K will we get one bet from him? If the flush comes will we get one bet from him? It may be wishful thinking. Chk turn / bomb river maybe to get bluff caught??

Semibluff? Meh given read I'm not expecting this V to fold an overpair on a wet flop. I think we need to be prepared to barrel it off if we are going to semibluff. I don't think that's a great plan here. Older tight dudes don't wait around for JJ+ just fold to one bet on boards like this.

Could be the lure of a pretty hand causing wishful thinking but I Call.

(Btw if he is truly KK+ this is a fold.!we are well over a 3:1 dog and set up for some RIO if we can't fold an A or K turn.)

Edit: good seat change also op.

I'm not sure why you suspect only KK+. He 3bet a button raise into a couple limps. I think a knowledgeable TAG 3! with JJ+/AK pre.

You have 55% equity against JJ+/AK (52% against TT+/AK). I think he cbets all of his 3! range on the flop. I would raise because you'll have a hard time getting paid if an A/K/hearts hit. You setup a turn shove if you make about a pot-sized raise to $600. I think JJ-QQ and even KK have a hard time calling. You have plenty of outs as backup. You have 42% equity against KK+ if he 3bets the flop. Be willing to gii.

Lol @ cAmmAndo and namzer wanting to fold flop. This is pretty much as good a flop as we can hope for facing a 3! pre with AKs. It's not even close to a fold, even if he has KK. To want to fold based of RIO considerations of the <4% of times that miraculous one card hits that gives him a set and us TPTK is ludicrous.

I highly doubt we have considerable FE OTF, and I don't think most people would raise here with a set. I don't think raising is horrible, but I'd much rather call and peel turn. There's a lot of good turn cards for us and I don't think V will snap fold his overpair or sets of the flush hits, because he has to expect us to try and rep the flush regardless. I also think that most of the hands we'd fold by raising are hands we're ahead of and would continue bluffing on most turns.

TL/DR, call.

I don't "want to fold" I said call but the equity is barely there given the assigned range. Unless v is a habitual pot controller and giving free rivers.

I'm simply suggesting this call is far less profitable than you think it is. Vs a slightly wider range that includes AK,AQs and 5% spazz / lite 3! Its much different. But the read is JJ+ / KK+.

And I didn't suggest folding on the basis of ROI. I said our future value when we hit needs to make up for the times we lose additional money on an A/K turn you say 4% but it's actually something like 15% of the time we hit which is what we are talking about. Obv there are no RIO if we miss.

Call with the intention of semi bluffing any turn that hits our perceived range

kind of an interesting spot because he is deep enough that we can whiff and still get him off of AA or KK.

flat the flop

on the turn, if you miss hearts, bomb it and make him fold right there. after you call the flop the pot will be about 430. on the turn he will either check or bet something that is about 220 ish.

If he checks, bet 350. if he calls and the river whiffs, bet 750, saving something like 200 behind and making it look valuey.

if he bets out on the turn for like 220, come over the top for 800 and that should get him off the hand a high enough % of the time to make this more than profitable.

Call is the obv consensus.

Raising is bad, because I think we will get way more value if we hit it with a passive line, where we can rep a wider range and possible spew.

If we fold on this flop, we may fold preflop as well.

On a sidenote: 3betting here is really bad on villains part, isn`t it? I would probably flat my entire range here, if I were in Villains shoes. Playing OOP this deep just sucks in general and I would rather play AA vs the limper and hero, than 3betting here and isolating myself OOP vs a good player.

Trying to pull of a semi bluff this deep with a draw to the nuts is just not the correct play here imho.

Also not sure what hand we would be representing on a brick turn if we 'bomb' it with a raise. That's the play that turns into a disaster. Especially if you are putting your opponents range at KK+

Perceived range is too high to just have a plan to bomb any brick turn with how the flop looks. Take your free card if checked to on the turn.

This, depending on what our perceived preflop 3b-calling range is.

I have the Ah and the Kh...


Also, based on what I've seen from villain I feel like if I hit my heart villain is getting all the money in no matter if I hit my h.

I am not ranging villain to strictly to KK+ when he 3!. OTF when he cbets huge that is when I tighten his range a bit from including JJ,QQ, AK to strictly KK+. That is not a typical bet from him although he has not been in any 3! pots. I don't think he is capable of doing anything beyond the obvious. So when he makes a large 3! Oop deep + cbets for 2/3+ pot his hand seems face up to me.

Anyway next action. I decided to call because I feel like if I hit my heart will stack him.

Turn 3c villain bets 300 hero?

make it 950 all day. this looks super strong and unless he has a strong read on you, or your table image in his veiw is shot, he is going to fold.

2.76:1 on a call you're a 3.2:1 dog. Vs KK+. Not getting direct odds but If your read is that he will pay off it seems obvious we have no fold equity so there really is nothing to do but call and hit and get him to put some more chips in.

That sounds absolutely crazy to me. He doesn't have a strong read on me and doesnt really care what I am doing. All he knows/cares about is that he has KK/AA on a non scary board so the money is going in.

Just to be clear, I saw some math from some posters that looked a bit off. I am not sure if i was not clear or mis typed earlier so I will go over the action in a single spot.

So there is a LP limper, hero raises to 30 OTB, villain makes it 105, hero calls limper folds.

Flop is Th8x2h (214 post rake)
Villain bets 160, hero calls 160
turn 3x (534)
Villain bets 300, Hero calls 300
River 6d ( or some irrelevant low card that doesn't change much) (pot is 1134)
Villain shoves for 1100ish, Hero Folds

Believing 100% that villain will stick the 1100ish in on a H river, it just becomes a simple math problem. Based on my math calling seem fine since ott it would be 300 to win 1934.

Doesn't this make it an auto-call?

call flop, call turn

If that's your read, and you think you have little to zero FE, then calling both streets is the better choice.

Absolutely detest a flop flat this deep. V is still smashing away at brick turns, but this deep he will find lots of ck-folds on A, heart, and some K turns rendering VBs useless wish, of course, slices up the EV of the flop call. Also, All hero turn semi bluffs on non AKH are devalued given they produce near zero folds which is a self explanatory-EV play vs his turn betting range.

Pot raise-call it off this deep for max EV with more FE than anyone itt has yet mentioned. There are cool/important features here.. Clearly we block a few AA/KK combos but blocking the H component of them actually makes this a little worse since his OPs that could even consider a turn call on a heart are capped at QQ, which leaves that many more hands V thinks he cannot beat now or on the river which leads to more folds with most of the hands we would have needed him to continue with by flatting flop. Also, just V having few combos of AA/KK adds a point or two to FE when raising flop... Also, V may be semi aware enough to realize hero can have TT/88 as easily as FDs all the times he has JJ+...which also another click or two to FE. I get the vibe in here that a raise feels spewier here at this depth but it's actually the opposite EV wise when running out the whole tree. It's absolutely fine when he shoves and similarly when he folds and the frequencies that we get the money in good go way up otf. This hand needs to realize it's full equity, this deep, and does well polarizing IP this time around.

Can you elaborate on the *tree a little bit better? Also when you pot it otf and villain calls and then checks a brick turn what exactly is your plan?

What makes you so sure villain is c/fing on H turns so often?