Interesting table dynamic. There are 5 reasonable to good players 1 standard fishy guy and 2 amazingly bad players that the game built around. Only 1 remained. He is currently in for 3k and has maybe 4-500 left all in big chips. Everyone can tell he's just waiting for any half decent spot to shove them in and bust to go home. If he doubles up the game may get some new life if he busts the game will 100% break.

Sometimes this structure of game gets out of hand. People start isoing light then other start 3! Lighter then the 4! Start but this game has been very polite. Any time a good player raises the others have been getting out of the way and letting them take the fish heads up. Especially now that the game is winding down.

Important players

UTG+1 (1k deep) very good player. Usually one of the best at the table very aggressive laggy puts people to the test with pot sized river bluffs but has been running quite badly recently so may be a bit gunshy.

UTG+2 (2k deep) probably sitting only because of the fish, generally tight has been getting in solid hands not really bluffing much (but Noone was bluffing because the fish would call 3 streets with bottom pair)

Fish in SB (4 - 500 deep) worst player ever, a calling station and a terrible bluffer in bad spots

Hero in BB (1.5k deep) playing very snug like the rest of the table.

Onto the hand.

UTG +1 open to 40
UTG +2 calls
Fish calls
Hero with Ac As in the BB

This is an obvious spot but I'm interested in sizing. I think I went too small.

$175-ish imo.

180-200$

Anything from $150-$200 is fine

I go big. $200

OK the consensus is I went too small. I agree

Hero raises to 140
UTG +1 folds
UTG+2 calls quite quickly didn't think much
Fish folds (unbelievably)
So the pot is ~360 and there's 1350 behind

Flop
Jc Kc 5c

Hero?

Pretty sure mixing a bet of $150-ish and check are both fine, but I’d be curious what a few of the top posters think of this spot. This deep I would imagine that check is pretty sensible.

If villain is not bluffing much, and playing straightforward, then we need to be valuing this flop. 150-200.

Ya, that makes sense. Especially given that V didn’t 3! pre it’s probably safe to discount KK somewhat. But he also might not be 3!ing in the hope that SB fish comes along and does something stupid too. We double block AK, and also block flush draw.
So there’s really nothing to be afraid of at this point except for sets. Value betting makes sense, but I still don’t hate a check.

In a nutshell, I’m slightly concerned about what hands V can actually have here that will pay off a sizeable value bet. QQ with a club? That and AK seems like the part of V’s range here that actually calls $150-175. QQ might even just fold, and definitely folds without a club. It’s pretty thin imo.

He cold called pre. Bet something.

if he folds, he folds. sometimes that happens. cant not bet bc of fear of that

I’m not saying bet is wrong, but what how many hands do you think V has here that call a bet that we beat? What do you think a good player who has been playing snug calls a 3! with against another good player?
His cold calling pre could have less to do with his hand and more who he wants to come along for the hand is all I’m saying. He would still often have position, plus a huge fish in sb with 100bb’s they’re waiting to give away.

It’s nothing to do with fear.
There are very few terrible turn cards for us.
It’s really not that ridiculous.

Who cares. Why let him suck out?

Pre is wayyyyyyy too small. $200 is the minimum here.

And yes, checking flop is fairly ridiculous. What are you betting in this spot if not AAxc?

Suck out with what?
This is my point man.

I think your sizing and suggested sizings are way too small. 280ish+ since were are deep. 140 is way too small and you should expect to go mw often at that size. AP vs this guy I would start with a check.

$190 pre, check flop. Betting likely folds most of his 3b/calling range. May get value vs. QQ on turn as opposed to flop.

Unlikely he called with 55, idk? KK less likely; 3 combos of JJ are ahead.

More pre as others have said.

OTF, I'm def just checking, just as I would with AcKx, QQ, and AJs. I think everything else, I'm betting $100-120.

Hero bets 250
Villian calls

Villian conspicuously rechecked his cards can't remember if he did it before or after the bet.

Turn 4d
Pot 850 1.1k remaining
Hero?

This is why I wanted to check flop.
Now we’re either stacking off more than likely behind, or checking and turning our hand face up.

This is not a b/b/b situation imo.
There needs to be a check somewhere.
Flop is easily the best spot.

Imagine playing in a room where 'one of the best' players opens to 40 UTG and folds for 100 more with a caller+whale behind. In said room, bet a pile on the flop and shove turn. Punish TF out of these clowns pre, and when you have AA don't flick in a black chip more FTB. You can ckc ckc ckc if your prime directive is showing down low variance style, but just hammer these jokers. If theyre remotely competent even flushes and JJ have a tougher than usual call when you're in pile mode. You're gonna spike a club otr if you're a pro.

Considering that there is no hand that we still don't have decent equity against, and we are only behind JJ, slight chance of KK, and slighter of KJ... we need to bet again.

We can value Kx hands, and give him the opportunity to call with any Qc hands. At some point we have to think that we are way ahead of his range, and it's unlikely villain will bet any of the hands we beat. We need to give his chance to make a mistake by calling then.

Go $350 and hope to get called.