So I showed up to the casino late last night and the table slowly whittled down to 3 players, 1 a reg judging by another player who left reactions and 1 who just came over from the 5/5 PLO game that just broke. Game is 1/3 converted to 2/5 short handed because of some stupid casino rule.
BU PLO Covers
SB Me $250
BB Reg $300
BU doesn't straddle or call surprisingly; folds
I have Jh8h in the sb, raise to 15
BB Calls
$30
Flop 9h 7h 3c
I bet $20
BB Calls
$70
Turn Qs
I bet $50
BB Calls
$170
River Ax (not a heart)
I bet $110
I thought that his most likely hand was a single pair of 9's when he just called the turn, maybe Ace high - Queen high hearts with a few other combos thrown in. If the river wasn't an ace would you still like the bluff? Seems like a spot where it's really easy to over bluff.
I think when you're short-handed, stuff like this becomes mostly a game flow dynamics kind of thing. So it's hard to say for sure...
When I'm facing a PFR who keeps firing as the turn and river cards get bigger in an amount that would make it hard to expect me to call if I just had top pair on the flop, I personally tend to think that barreling is likely.
For that reason, I think I prefer a smaller value-sized river bet. I'm not really expecting to get Qxhh or Ax to fold out, so I might bet something like $85 specifically meant to fold out 9x or worse pairs and bigger draws like TJ.
^ yeah, that. Bluffing that size doesn't really gain you anything. The other thing you can do is shove for 185, which is claiming to have 2 pair or a set. I think the problem there (like you said) is you're going to end up bluffing too much, with a runout like this you have a lot of potential three barrel bluffs. Therefore I want to counterbalance them with my more frequent one pair value hands. I'd actually bet less than halfpot, like $75.
I think J8hh is one of the worst hands to triple because it blocks Jxhh and 8xhh which make up a decent part of his folding range.
I'd bet/bet/give up with this hand and pick from hands like 86/T8/JT that don't have hearts
On second thoughts, I agree with this. The problem isn't just the hearts removal, it's that we also have removal against stuff like 98, or 87, or J9, which are the one pair hands we're hoping to bluff out. And I think we're going to have too many bluffs if we triple barrel everything we went two streets with, even if we value bet every A and Q. I think this is a good hand to not fire again with.
It should be hard for any thinking player to call this down, but there are a lot of button clickers out there whom will have rivered an A with Axhh and still call, even if they have like A5. We're repping extremely strong and aside from A9 he should have too many 2P+ hands
On second thoughts, I agree with this. The problem isn't just the hearts removal, it's that we also have removal against stuff like 98, or 87, or J9, which are the one pair hands we're hoping to bluff out. And I think we're going to have too many bluffs if we triple barrel everything we went two streets with, even if we value bet every A and Q. I think this is a good hand to not fire again with.
