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Old 09-05-2016, 08:48 AM   #26
browni3141
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Actually, you want more bluff combos on each prior street, because a bluff combo can turn into a "value combo" on a future street.
This is a reason, but I wouldn't say it's the main one.

Every time we bet with a perfectly polarized, balanced range (bluffs always lose, value bets always win), we effectively win the pot. In this hand if the board bricks out we have 18 value combos on the river, and by betting half pot we offer our opponent 3:1, so we need to have one bluff combo for every three value combos to make villain indifferent to calling with a bluffcatcher. We can bet the river with 24 total combos, 18 value and 6 bluffs.

On the turn we will also bet half pot offering the opponent 3:1. He needs to be able to win 25% of the time to make a breakeven call. Since he always wins when we check the river, and loses when we bet the river with a balanced range, we can add some turn bluffs which will give up on the river. 8 additional combos can be bluffed on the turn which will give up on the river, so we end up betting the river (and winning) 75% of the time.

The same idea can be applied to the flop. We can add 32/3 ~= 11 flop bluff combos which will give up on the turn. This allows us to bet 18 value combos on the flop and 25 bluff combos.

This isn't the whole story, though, because our bluffs have significant equity when called and our value bets will rarely be outdrawn, so we can actually bluff even more often on the flop. IDK exactly how much more often, but we can see that there is a cap on how much we can bluff. If we bet half-pot on the flop, then the opponent's JJ or whatever can jam 3.5 PSBs to win 1.5 PSBs and our range has to be about 34.5% value to make this jam breakeven. Therefore, I would guess that having 34 bluff combos on the flop for our 18 value combos is about optimal, and when we bet the flop with this range a hand like JJ will be close to indifferent between calling, folding and jamming. Does this seem reasonable?
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Old 09-05-2016, 10:24 AM   #27
iSUCK_out
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
AQo is a fairly easy fold pf unless you have a strong read on the villain that he raises light in EP.
C'mon man
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Old 09-05-2016, 12:10 PM   #28
ZuneIt
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by venice10
AQo is a fairly easy fold pf unless you have a strong read on the villain that he raises light in EP.
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Originally Posted by iSUCK_out View Post
C'mon man
"So Villain is a late 20's early 30's black guy who I don't really know. I think I've played with him before but I can't recall how good he is. I think he's at least competent though. Covers my $1.4k. 4 additional callers for $25.00"

You will be OOP on all subsequent streets. You will be getting ~5.25:1 on your money, after the rake, if you call.

It's a shame they don't have a session logger that tracks your Ev from each seat.

So yea, "C'mon man!" fold....

Anyone who played enough on Pokerstars to download 100k hands into pokertracker knows the power of position.

I'm not good enough to expect long-term +Ev playing this hand OOP in this situation. There are also plays I wouldn't make on the golf course that pros would without thinkin' twice.
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Old 09-05-2016, 01:47 PM   #29
HappyLuckBox
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
This is a reason, but I wouldn't say it's the main one.

Every time we bet with a perfectly polarized, balanced range (bluffs always lose, value bets always win), we effectively win the pot. In this hand if the board bricks out we have 18 value combos on the river, and by betting half pot we offer our opponent 3:1, so we need to have one bluff combo for every three value combos to make villain indifferent to calling with a bluffcatcher. We can bet the river with 24 total combos, 18 value and 6 bluffs.

On the turn we will also bet half pot offering the opponent 3:1. He needs to be able to win 25% of the time to make a breakeven call. Since he always wins when we check the river, and loses when we bet the river with a balanced range, we can add some turn bluffs which will give up on the river. 8 additional combos can be bluffed on the turn which will give up on the river, so we end up betting the river (and winning) 75% of the time.

The same idea can be applied to the flop. We can add 32/3 ~= 11 flop bluff combos which will give up on the turn. This allows us to bet 18 value combos on the flop and 25 bluff combos.

This isn't the whole story, though, because our bluffs have significant equity when called and our value bets will rarely be outdrawn, so we can actually bluff even more often on the flop. IDK exactly how much more often, but we can see that there is a cap on how much we can bluff. If we bet half-pot on the flop, then the opponent's JJ or whatever can jam 3.5 PSBs to win 1.5 PSBs and our range has to be about 34.5% value to make this jam breakeven. Therefore, I would guess that having 34 bluff combos on the flop for our 18 value combos is about optimal, and when we bet the flop with this range a hand like JJ will be close to indifferent between calling, folding and jamming. Does this seem reasonable?
Thanks, good in depth explanation. Its good to know there are some people in llsnl who are well versed im game theory. Also, im glad you used 1/2psb instead of full psb like i used, more applicable to real world.


As to your last point, im not 100% sure about, it is a good question though. Hopefully somebody more qualified can respond
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Old 09-05-2016, 01:52 PM   #30
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
AQo is a fairly easy fold pf unless you have a strong read on the villain that he raises light in EP. Also, his raise on the flop is less than 1/2 pot. It isn't big, it is actually on the small side. Unless you think he would call a 3bet with AT and bluff raise you on this flop, it is even an easier fold now.
Getting 5:1 pre this should never be a fold preflop. Since we have AQo, im much more inclined to 3!. The only time I would favor calling or possibly folding is if villian had sizing tells preflop. If so, we can call and look to hit a monster. If an A or Q falls we dont need to get stacked
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Old 09-05-2016, 03:32 PM   #31
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
How many bluffs for every value combo do you think we should have on the flop?
I don't think that is the right question to be asking. The right question is "should we have any bluffs OOP vs. a readless opponent nearly 300 BB's deep with an RIO hand in what will amount to a roughly ~3x SPR pot?"

I would say the answer is no.

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
You can make an argument that KQo plays essentially the same against UTG's continuing range as AQo if you think UTG is usually folding AQ pre (AQ is still better if he just calls pre with KK+ sometimes), but AJo is much worse, isn't it? Where do we stop? KJo? ATo? A9o?

I said we could c-bet close to 100% of our range "depending on how wide we squeeze pre-flop." Of course if you add a bunch of junk we will need to be checking the flop sometimes.
We don't know anything about UTG's opening/continuing range so we can't really make any arguments for or against.

My point was just looking at a hand like AQo and recognizing it's squeeze value irrespective of the specific spot is a slippery slope where before you know it you've got all of the KQo, AJo and KJo hands in there because they fit the same general criteria for what you are looking to accomplish. I used to 3! all of the trouble hands as often as I could and felt like a boss. It works until it doesn't.

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
You are giving 16 combos to each of AJ, AQ, KQ. If KQo is a profitable squeeze, then obviously KQs is, but are you 3-betting a hand that works well as a call?

I agree that villain isn't folding 99-JJ to one bet on this flop, but he also can have hands like AQ/AK in his range which may fold the flop, and we can double-barrel to get folds from 99-JJ sometimes. I wouldn't triple barrel because most V's commitment point is probably on the turn with these stacks and if he calls turn he's calling the river much more often than he should be.

I think villain in the OP has AA/KK which decided to just call pre. I don't see him raising you on this board with JJ for protection/value or AK as a bluff.
Same as before, we know nothing about villain's opening/continuing range and we are simply throwing our self into the gulag of an unnecessary high variance spot deep and OOP relying on nothing more than population reads and hypothetical ifs and buts.
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Old 09-05-2016, 03:32 PM   #32
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by bluffer232 View Post
If you're going to squeeze pre at all with a nonpremium hand (maybe not, readless), and if you think AQ is close between calling and folding (which I don't really understand but w.e) than surely this is the spot to do it with two excellent blockers no?
Yes under ideal conditions where either villain opens too wide and has a high fold-to-3bet % or opens too wide and defends too wide in a fit-or-fold manner than AQo is a great hand to squeeze with pre here.

The problem is we have no information to act on and simply looking at our hand, position and dead money out there and thinking "Wow this is a slam dunk squeeze!" is taking too high level a view of a spot that requires much more information to accurately assess.

If you feel like gambling for 300 bigs then sure, go ahead and squeeze and blame "negative variance" when it doesn't work out in your favor. Like most things in poker this comes down to a range assessment and I'm not in the business of gambling high variance spots when deep and informationless.
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Old 09-05-2016, 03:34 PM   #33
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Actually, you want more bluff combos on each prior street, because a bluff combo can turn into a "value combo" on a future street.

Rule of thumb (assuming we bet psb otr and are perfectly polarized)
2:1 value:bluffs on the river
1:1 value:bluffs ott
1:2 value:bluffs otf

basically you want to have more combos of bluffs on the flop then value, less on the turn, and even less on the river. By the river, you should always have 1 bluff for every 2 value bets, assuming you bet pot.
I understand this but I don't quite see the relevance. Not all bluff combos are created equally and a bluff combo that turns into a "value combo" may very well still be inferior to villain's holding. If we want bluff combos that can turn into value combos vs. a tight continuing range we shouldn't be squeezing with RIO hands like AQo, but rather SC type hands that provide board coverage.

Broader point remains why do we need to take such a theoretical view to a readless spot? Why do we *NEED* any bluffs here in *THIS SPECIFIC SPOT*?
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Old 09-06-2016, 09:56 AM   #34
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Lately I have been looking to avoid the high variance spots with questionable +EV when sufficiently deep. Yah picking up that $100 pre looks enticing on paper but you're generally just picking up nickels in front of the steamroller until the music stops.
Best poker analogy I've ever seen, please tell me this is an original?
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Old 09-06-2016, 08:19 PM   #35
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

Have to agree with the above is just a very high variance spot if you got the bank roll and can play good post flop poker OOP with little reads then sure why
3 bet and see what happens
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Old 09-06-2016, 10:40 PM   #36
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Re: 2/5, 3-betting AQ from BB and getting raised on flop

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Broader point remains why do we need to take such a theoretical view to a readless spot? Why do we *NEED* any bluffs here in *THIS SPECIFIC SPOT*?
We don't. And we will never ever play long enough with this specific opponent for it to matter.

In a lot of ways, bluffing has RIO in LIVE poker because if we lose the pot than our opponents will leave the game before we get to play enough hands where similar spots will come up where balance actually matters.
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