CO has been running about a 50% VPIP and a very low PFR. Very fit or fold post and easy to run over in these ISO spots which has been working really well this session. Villain has folded a ton to my flop and/or turn c-bets. This is the first river I had gotten to with him.

CO has $500 to start the hand and Hero covers.

Hero 9d6d in BTN 2/5 live

CO limps, Hero raises to $25, CO calls

Flop ($57) Tc8s2d
CO checks, Hero bets $30, CO calls

Turn ($117) 3h
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn ($117) 7h
CO checks, Hero bets $100, CO raises to $420 ALL IN, Hero?

Call, he can have sets

How passive is he? If we assume he check raises sets and two pairs on the flop, I think he really doesn't have sets by the river.

I think his range would be J9 and 87. He has more combos of J9 than 87 so probably a fold.

If you think he slow plays sets and two pair, then his range could be J9, TT, T8, 88, 87, 22 and you can consider a call, but we actually don't have the equity for the pots odds here (it is very close).

I would fold.

I call for sure, I expect a lot of river leads anyways after turn is checked through with the super nuts

I like all streets. I call here. V can def have worse here and he will be doing this with 2 pair + for value all day. It sucks when he has the joint but he this will be a profitable call over time.

Hopefully you didn’t tank

Ended up finding a fold here. Might be a punt.

Seems super thin for these player types to go for value with a set when we have all the J9 and 96 combos in our range.

Grunch from title alone: Run, run away, run very fast!

After reading the thread: Run, run away, run very fast! This is not a set, this is the nuts 99.9% of the time.

This is pretty much 100% player/game/flow dependant.

i would beat villain into the pot

Folding here is horrific. A travesty of poker. Snappiest of snap calls.

Villain should take this line with 2p+. Drop down in stakes if you’re folding here.

I guess I could see finding a fold against the most passive players if it had been limped pre-flop.

Dude, you were the pre-flop raiser with 9d6d, played a pot heads up, and rivered the second nuts. This is a clear call.

Geez. Given odds/eff stacks/blocker to nuts this is possibly the worst fold i’ve read on 2+2

Not tryin to be that guy, but ya

What the hell is up with all these scared NIT threads lately?!?!

He has 12 combos of J9 you lose to. And I see him also having 87, T7 here so thats 18 combos you win against. i don't think he'll slowplay sets so i wont count sets into his range.

Also he might be on a bluff, maybe a hand like 97(9 combos of 97 out there), taking a stand against you, since you have been pushing him around recently.

furthermore since you checked turn, villain might think you're just taking a stab at the pot. it's not like you've been showing strength for all streets.

So since:
1. there are 12 combos of J9 you lose to, 18 combos of 87, T7 you win against
2. might be taking a stand against you given how you've pushed him around
3. you showed weakness by checking turn.

I'm calling.

it's not that he wont have J9 here, but just that there are so many other factors that point the other direction.

let me know what yall think.

So you think V watched the turn go x/x then rivered the nuts and went for a c/r instead of betting for value? Really would like to see how you have V playing J9 like this?