2-5 ~$2k effective

V - (cut off) only sat about 30mins ago seems like a reg and is pretty aggressive - opening late position almost every time it's folded to him and isolating limpers regularly. He was in for $1k initially and doubled up shortly after sitting. He calls 3B pretty wide from OOP.

Hero - (button) Unknown to villain, been playing pretty snug in the time he has been at table. This is the second time I have 3B him, he folded to flop c-bet the first time.

$10 straddle

V opens to $35 from CO, I make it $95 with AQ on BTN, V calls, everyone else folds.

Flop ($195); Q42
V checks, I bet $80 he calls

Turn ($355); 5
V checks, I bet $190 he tanks a little and calls

River ($735); 3
V very quickly leads out for $700…..


Note; call/call/bomb river (in a big pot) is the nuts like ~95% of time in my experience but I was having a hard time giving him credit the way this played out.

Thoughts?

Sucks when he has 66, but I'm not folding. He's giving you a really bad price, which leads me to think this is bluffy or an A (as opposed to a 6), but that is V dependent.

i think you can probably just fold here. you have an ace here so often, and i expect him to know that, and lol who folds a straight. also he can have 66/56 here and you really cant, and he doesnt have that many aces that want to push you off a chop anyways. its probably close though, and it wouldn't be bad to play a mixed strat with the hands you have with aces in them, so like call with all AK, fold all AQ/AA.

How is he calling the flop and turn with [66, 65, 76, 6x]?

The only 6 he can have is A6s but it still makes no sense that he called the flop and turn with a naked A.

Extremely unlikely he has QQ, 55, 44, 22 since he'll raise the turn (or flop).

I'm calling and expect to either chop with another A, beat 88-JJ, or lose to a very rare 66.

Yeah, if it wasn't for this I would have auto mucked - because I've kinda trained myself to do that in these spots cos I'm sick of being shown the nuts.

i dont think he often calls flop/turn with 67s/A6s, but i think he always c/c 66 otf here, and 56s is like the nut float hand so id certainly expect him to float sometimes (and probably c/r other times), and its possible he doesn't even have a c/r range otf on this board to this sizing. once the turn improves both 56 and 66, id expect him not to fold, and his tank was likely whether to c/c or c/r. also, hes an aggressive reg who calls 3bs wide oop. i take this to mean that he doesnt like to fold, and does like to try to win pots, which is part of the reason i think he rarely folds 66/56s at any point in the hand to this sizing.

part of the reason i think folding is good is that i dont see him even getting to the river with that many hands that have an A in them. i do agree that most of his bluffs are going to be 77-JJ though, and this is really a question of how often he turns them into bluffs with a insta-pot bet otr

Looks like he is trying to bet you off a chop. From his point of view how many 6's can you have?

Re calling 3B wide OOP, I'd seen him do it with JTs. I thought 56s might be a stretch, but i agree that if he did he can probably call flop/turn

unless you have an extremely large and linear 3b range, i doubt JTs and 56s are going to be much different, and i dont think he will view them very differently either

i also think his perception of your barreling frequencies/tendencies is important, and also what he thinks of your betsizing generally.

i bet bigger everywhere, narrows his range+ makes a river call way easier considering ur own range

as played your sizing allows v to peel with gutters, and i could see him getting sticky ott, makes your life living hell when he does something like this otr.

Flop and turn bets seem small. As played, call. Yes he could have 66, 56s or 67s, but he also could have other wheel type hand in his range.

If he had a tighter image, I'd fold. But this villain gets paid here. IMO.

This.

I think we have more 6x then he does.

Re flop/turn sizing, I was deliberately betting a bit smaller as I gave him a weakish range, he looked like he was going to fold the flop. On the turn I was mainly targeting 88-JJ, but I agree I could have gone a little bigger. He's OOP in a 3B pot though and I have a clean/unknown image, i wasn't really expecting him to call me down too light.

Yeah you are probably correct.

you're deep. the cleaner the image, the more incentive he has to speculate

This