V recently table-changed; early 20s, seems tight-passive, relatively inactive. Has limped and folded to raises a few times, one limp-call and folded to flop bet.

Hero has only played one hand which I believe V saw - a misplayed AA where I opened 25 UTG, was flatted in three spots (including V in BB). Flop QQ6 I checked to OMC (who had 3! all pp TT+ in this session pre), who led 50, folded to Hero called. Turn 9c and backdoor clubs, Hero checks intending to let OMC barrel, OMC checks behind (disaster). Hero leads river blank for 125 OMC snaps with KK (?). That's what I get for being MUBSy....that being said, V may perceive Hero to be weak-tight.

ES 950

UTG+2 (60/30/2) opens to 25, V flats, Hero flats 64cc, all fold.

Flop (77) Q32r UTG, V check to Hero, bets 35, UTG folds V calls.

Turn (147) Jc completes rainbow, V checks, Hero double barrels 85, V c/r 185.

I range V at {22,33,JJ,QJs}. If V's range is capped at sets, and I'm getting close to 10-1 implied (3.3-1 immediate odds with 705 behind), assuming V *always* pays a rivered straight, is this a call?

If it were Jd, bringing backdoor flush, would this a) increase or decrease fold equity OTR if flush comes in, and b) how would this affect V's range?

With just a gutshot and no backdoor flush draw I'm just checking this flop back because players slow play monsters. Your question is just a math question and the answer is yes if villain always calls shoves on the river then we should call and try to bink.

A flush draw would be bad for our hand in this spot though making it harder to get value, and yet I don't think we can reasonably expect folds enough to shove when the flush hits (if that makes any sense, those two things seem contradictory).

With these stack sizes and against a wide opening range I'm squeezing preflop to $100.

Flop and turn look good.

Once check/raised I'm folding because it's close enough in EV that I would rather preserve my stack to be able to play deepish and to avoid the unnecessary variance.

c/r is pretty strong, especially when V does this with an 'under' card. So you have to decide what V has and also why V didn't believe your Flop 'story'.

At 10-1 on a gutter (9%) this is pretty much =EV and not worth pursuing IMO. GL

It's a razor thin call if your read is right 100% of the time and he stacks off for more than a PSB on the river 100% of the time, but neither of those things is true, so fold.

that´s why you 3bet pre i guess

What do you mean? 3betting pre is a profitable spot imo and this one seems close to neutral EV. In a spot that seems close to neutral EV stack depth preservation/purposely inflating stack depths and variance implications should be 2 of the deciding factors(among others) that should determine what play is best.

Grunching ...

Fold to turn C/R. We need >10-1 IO based on 4 outs.

Given our line, there are close to zero FDs in our range.

Pre - I'd either fold (deep but RIO) or 3b given V has a fold button. We have position if the active UTG+2 calls.